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All Journal Jurnal Abdimas Mahakam Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science Jurnal Sistem Komputer & Kecerdasan Buatan Indonesian Journal of Law and Economics Review LOSARI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Education Research Hippocampus: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat eProceedings of Applied Science Mandiri: Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Scientica: Jurnal Ilmiah Sains dan Teknologi Review: Journal of Multidisciplinary in Social Sciences Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) SELAYAR: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat
Hidayat , Rahmat
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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

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Implementation of the Bayesian Spatial Model for Mapping the Relative Risk of HIV Cases in Makassar City Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun; Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat , Rahmat
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.9770

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a major public health challenge in Indonesia, including Makassar City. This study aims to estimate and map the relative risk (RR) of HIV cases in Makassar City using the Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Leroux model. The dataset comprises the number of HIV cases and the population of each district, with covariates including distance to the city center and population density. Results of Moran's I test indicated significant spatial autocorrelation in HIV cases across Makassar City. Model selection based on the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) identified the optimal model as the CAR Leroux with an Invers-Gamma (IG) hyperprior (0.5;0.0005) and distance as a covariate, yielding the lowest DIC and WAIC values. The estimation results demonstrated that distance is negatively associated with HIV incidence. The highest RR was observed in Ujung Pandang district, while the lowest was in Biringkanaya District. These findings may provide a basis for identifying priority intervention areas and support the development of more targeted and effective HIV elimination strategies.
Co-Authors Abdul Barir Hakim, Abdul Barir Agam, Beryaldi Agusman, Yudi Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Alfitra, Muhammad Alfiyani , Yusnia Fitri Anwari, Cici Muthia Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Arafat Asrin Asrin Aswi, Aswi Azahra, Kamila Khairunnisa Danil Danil Erna Erna, Erna Ervandi, Ervandi Farmiansyah, Eko Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauzi , Dede Ahmad Febi Kurniawan Hafizin, Hafizin Lamo, Achmad Lilik Indayani Maulana, Tan Dede Nadika , Robby Mulya Nugraha, Risman Nugroho , Setio Pandika, Edo Prastyo, Yudi Puspitasari , Dian Ramadhan, Fadzri Riska Aprilina Romadani, Anggit Tiyas Fitra Rosada , Fadia Sangkala Sari, Oktaviani shara, yuni Solehudin , Sihab Akbar Yeni Rahmawati, Yeni Yusuf, Muhamad Sulaiman Nur