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All Journal Jurnal Abdimas Mahakam Jurnal Sistem Komputer & Kecerdasan Buatan Indonesian Journal of Law and Economics Review LOSARI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Education Research Hippocampus: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat eProceedings of Applied Science Mandiri: Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Scientica: Jurnal Ilmiah Sains dan Teknologi Neraca: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi Review: Journal of Multidisciplinary in Social Sciences Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) SELAYAR: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat
Hidayat , Rahmat
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

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Implementation of the Bayesian Spatial Model for Mapping the Relative Risk of HIV Cases in Makassar City Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun; Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat , Rahmat
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.9770

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a major public health challenge in Indonesia, including Makassar City. This study aims to estimate and map the relative risk (RR) of HIV cases in Makassar City using the Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Leroux model. The dataset comprises the number of HIV cases and the population of each district, with covariates including distance to the city center and population density. Results of Moran's I test indicated significant spatial autocorrelation in HIV cases across Makassar City. Model selection based on the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) identified the optimal model as the CAR Leroux with an Invers-Gamma (IG) hyperprior (0.5;0.0005) and distance as a covariate, yielding the lowest DIC and WAIC values. The estimation results demonstrated that distance is negatively associated with HIV incidence. The highest RR was observed in Ujung Pandang district, while the lowest was in Biringkanaya District. These findings may provide a basis for identifying priority intervention areas and support the development of more targeted and effective HIV elimination strategies.
Estimating the Relative Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Makassar City Using a Bayesian Spatial Localised Conditional Autoregressive Model Rahmawati; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat , Rahmat; Palarungi Taufik, Andi Gagah
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/z0mxxw06

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) remains a significant public health challenge in Indonesia, including in Makassar City, which reported an increase of 291 cases in 2024. This study aimed to estimate the relative risk of DHF across 15 districts of Makassar by incorporating covariates such as population density, distance to the city center, and the number of hospitals, using a Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Localised approach. The data were obtained from the publication Makassar City in Figures 2025, issued by the Central Statistics Agency. Spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran’s I indicated significant clustering of DHF cases. Model selection was conducted using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), and group-level area coverage. The results showed that the best-fitting model was the CAR Localised model with distance as a covariate (M9), specified at G = 3 with hyperprior IG (1; 0.01). Distance exhibited a negative association with DHF incidence, suggesting that the farther a district is from the city center, the lower its relative risk. Among the districts, Rappocini exhibited the highest relative risk followed by Panakkukang, while the lowest risks were observed in Sangkarrang Islands. These findings provide valuable insights for designing spatially targeted DHF prevention and control strategies in Makassar City.
Co-Authors Abdul Barir Hakim, Abdul Barir Agam, Beryaldi Agusman, Yudi Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Alfitra, Muhammad Alfiyani , Yusnia Fitri Anwari, Cici Muthia Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Arafat Asrin Asrin Aswi, Aswi Azahra, Kamila Khairunnisa Danil Danil Erna Erna, Erna Ervandi, Ervandi Farmiansyah, Eko Fatmawati Fatmawati Fauzi , Dede Ahmad Febi Kurniawan Hafizin, Hafizin Kusuma, Febrianita Lamo, Achmad Lilik Indayani Maulana, Tan Dede Nadika , Robby Mulya Nugraha, Risman Nugroho , Setio Palarungi Taufik, Andi Gagah Pandika, Edo Prastyo, Yudi Puspitasari , Dian Rahmawati Ramadhan, Fadzri Riska Aprilina Romadani, Anggit Tiyas Fitra Rosada , Fadia Sangkala Sari, Oktaviani shara, yuni Solehudin , Sihab Akbar Yeni Rahmawati, Yeni Yusuf, Muhamad Sulaiman Nur