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All Journal Epsilon: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Terapan CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jambura Journal of Mathematics Sarwahita : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Matematika UNAND Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Insan Cita Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Jurnal Forum Analisis Statistik
Imro'ah, Nurfitri
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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ANALYSIS OF FOREST FIRE CASES USING GSTAR(1;1) MODEL WITH SPATIAL ROOK CONTIGUITY WEIGHTS MATRIX IN WEST KALIMANTAN Ayyash, Muhammad Yahya; Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul; Imro'ah, Nurfitri; Pratiwi, Hesty
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.2.259-273.2026

Abstract

In West Kalimantan, forest and land fires cause damage to ecosystems, the loss of biodiversity, and detrimental repercussions on both health and the local econ- omy. Extreme weather and land clearance for agricultural and plantation purposes are the primary reasons. This study aims to investigate forest fires’ spatial and temporal pat- terns by employing the Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR)(1;1) approach with spatial rook contiguity weights. From January 2020 to March 2024, the data used consisted of the number of monthly forest fires that occurred in the Ketapang, Sanggau, Sintang, Landak, and Sekadau Regencies. According to the findings, the spatial pattern demonstrates strong interactions between regions in which flames in one area affect fires in other locations. The temporal pattern demonstrates that prior fires can impact fires that occur in the subsequent period, depending on the area. The model has an aver- age accuracy level of 13%, which indicates that this model has a reasonable degree of accuracy that can be used for making predictions. This study concluded that a better understanding of the spatial-temporal patterns of forest fires can improve early warning systems and rapid responses to probable future fires.
K-Means Cluster with Calinski Harabasz Index Evaluation to Map Forest Degradation and Deforestation Areas Rahimah, Ummi; Martha, Shantika; Imro'ah, Nurfitri
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.15.2.237-248.2026

Abstract

Although Indonesia is home to a rich biodiversity, the country is threatenedby forest degradation and deforestation, particularly in West Kalimantan. As asignificant contributor to the agricultural sector’s gross domestic product (PDRB), the Sanggau Regency is vital for preserving the environment and promoting sustainable development. This research uses the K-Means Cluster to categorize regions in Sanggau that can potentially experience forest degradation. Then, the Calinski Harabasz Index will be used to determine which clusters are the most effective. Two thousand twentythree, the research findings revealed five ideal clusters, each with a Calinski Harabasz Index value of 3.87. The first cluster consists of one sub-district, the second cluster consists of three sub-districts, the third cluster consists of two sub-districts, the fourth cluster consists of five sub-districts, and the fifth cluster consists of four sub-districts, which are all included in the distribution of clusters. A map illustrating the degree of urgency associated with forest degradation is produced as a result of this study. The map serves as a strategic reference for the government of Sanggau in its efforts to reduce theforest’s degradation and develop areas per the peculiarities of each sub-districts.
Interpolation of Fire Radiative Power Based on GSTAR Model Predictions with Queen Contiguity Weights Using Ordinary Kriging Fitriyana, Gita; Imro'ah, Nurfitri; Huda, Nur’ainul Miftahul
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.37462

Abstract

Forest fires are a persistent environmental issue in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, driven by both natural and human factors. Fire Radiative Power (FRP) serves as a vital indicator for assessing wildfire intensity and energy release. This study aims to model and predict the spatial temporal dynamics of FRP using the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive [GSTAR(1;1)] model combined with Ordinary Kriging interpolation. The dataset covers West Kalimantan from July 2024 to September 2025, comprising four attributes: observation date, longitude, latitude, and FRP value. Data filtering was applied from the national to provincial level, focusing on three regencies Sanggau, Sekadau, and Ketapang across 14 sub-districts represented by a 1.25 × 1.25 grid. The data consisted of 65 weekly observations, with 61 used for training and 4 for testing. The GSTAR(1;1) model with a spatial area-based framework achieved an optimal RMSE of 7.42 and satisfied the white noise assumption, indicating reliable performance. Predictions for October 2025 indicated relatively stable fire intensity, with a slight FRP decrease in Nanga Tayap and Sandai during the final week. Overall, the integrated GSTAR–Kriging framework effectively captured both temporal and spatial variations, supporting improved fire risk assessment and regional decision making for wildfire management in West Kalimantan.
Prediksi Jumlah Permintaan Darah UTD PMI Kota Pontianak Menggunakan ARIMA-Kalman Filter Mauditia, Lyra; Imro'ah, Nurfitri; Andani, Wirda
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 7, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v7i1.85958

Abstract

Ensuring a sufficient supply of blood is a crucial aspect of providing health services. However, the large demand for blood is sometimes difficult to fulfill for one of the work units in the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI), namely the Blood Transfusion Unit. Therefore, blood demand prediction is needed to assist the blod transfuse unit in preparing sufficient blood stock. This study uses the ARIMA-Kalman Filter model to anticipate the quantity of blood demand for Blood Transfusion Unit PMI. The observations modeled in this study are daily observations of the amount of blood demand with the period January 1 to December 26, 2023 as an in-sample of 360 observations and blood demand for the period 27 to 31 December 2023 which amounted to 5 observations as an out-sample used to evaluate the model. The analysis’s findings indicate that the model obtained for predicting the amount of blood demand is the ARIMA (0,0,2) model, then the model parameters are estimated using Kalman Filter. The model used fulfills the diagnostic test and obtained a MAPE value of 15.021% in predicting out-sample data. Thus it can be concluded that the model used is in the very good category and is suitable for prediction. Furthermore, predictions are made for the next three days on the number of blood requests at Blood Transfusion Unit PMI Pontianak City to help health services prepare blood stocks for patients in need.
Co-Authors ., Putri Amalia, Disya Recita Andani, Wirda Arini, Nani Fitria Ayyash, Muhammad Yahya Dadan Kusnandar Dadan Kusnandar Debataraja, Naomi Nessyana Debatraja, Naomi Nessyana Evy Sulistianingsih Fitriyana, Gita Hendra Perdana Huda, Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda, Nur’ainul Miftahul Kartika Sari Marda, Marda Marlisa, Herina Martha, Shantika Mauditia, Lyra Neva Satyahadewi Novita, Irene Pratiwi, Hesty Putri, Mely Amara Rahimah, Ummi Rahmi Hidayati Rizki, Setyo Wira Tamtama, Ray Umairah, Tarisa Utami, Dewi Setyo Utriweni Mukhaiyar Zuleha, Zuleha