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Implementation of the Single Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method for Product Sales Prediction at UD XYZ Wiguna, Deny Arya; Manurung, Nuriadi; Latiffani, Chitra
JURNAL RISET KOMPUTER (JURIKOM) Vol. 12 No. 4 (2025): Agustus 2025
Publisher : Universitas Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/jurikom.v12i4.8939

Abstract

In the competitive world of business, demand forecasting is a critical aspect of inventory management. Errors in estimating demand can result in various negative impacts, such as excess inventory that increases storage costs or stock shortages that can lead to lost sales opportunities. UD. Haili often faces challenges in managing inventory due to unpredictable fluctuations in demand. In some cases, demand for certain products experiences sudden spikes, while at other times demand drops sharply. This creates the risk of inventory imbalances, leading to increased operational costs and the potential loss of customers. The objective of this study is to apply the single exponential smoothing (SES) method in forecasting demand for goods so that the forecasting results can provide strategic recommendations for UD. Haili in managing inventory based on the forecasting results. The forecasting results using the developed forecasting application indicate that round shrimp paste has the smallest MAPE, using an alpha of 0.4 with 1.26%, square shrimp paste uses an alpha of 0.1 with 1.98%, and triangular shrimp paste uses an alpha of 0.1 with 4.53%.
IMPLEMENTATION OF E-CRM TO INCREASE CONSUMER INTEREST IN UD.NAZWAN TINGGI RAJA DISTRICT WEB BASED Sihotang, Rehani Aulia; Manurung, Nuriadi; Latiffani, Chitra
JURTEKSI (jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi) Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024): Maret 2024
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM) STMIK Royal Kisaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/jurteksi.v10i2.3090

Abstract

Abstract: The development of information technology has experienced very rapid growth, especially the internet. The internet makes a very helpful contribution in the business sector. Tight business competition and the rapid growth of information technology make it easy for customers to switch to other stores. UD. Nazwan has not implemented a service that makes it easier for customers to buy goods easily and is still using the service manually, sales report data is still used in ledgers so it is not efficient to keep neat records, customers have to come directly to the shop to find out what products are being sold so customers are not aware of the latest discounts and products sold in the store. UD. Nazwan is a business that sells pants, shoes, school uniforms, shirts, dresses and sandals. One effort to improve service is by implementing the concept of Customer Relationship Management (CRM). The goal achieved at this stage is the operability of the system design results that have been created. With CRM design, you can increase sales to meet customer needs. This system was created to make it easier for UD. Nazwan sells products, processes data computerizedly and can improve service to customers. Keywords: consumer; E-CRM; UD.nazwan.  Abstrak: Perkembangan teknologi informasi telah mengalami pertumbuhan yang sangat pesat terutama internet. Internet memberikan kontribusi yang sangat membantu dalam bidang bisnis. Persaingan bisnis yang ketat dan pesatnya pertumbuhan teknologi informasi memudahkan pelanggan untuk beralih ke toko lain. UD. Nazwan belum menerapkan layanan yang memudahkan pelanggan untuk membeli barang dengan mudah dan masih menggunakan layanan secara manual, data laporan penjualan masih digunakan dalam buku besar sehingga tidak efisien untuk melakukan pencatatan yang tertata rapi, pelanggan harus datang langsung ke toko untuk mengetahui produk apa yang dijual maka pelanggan tidak mengetahui diskon terbaru dan produk yang dijual di toko. UD. Nazwan adalah usaha bisnis  yang menjual produk celana, sepatu, seragam sekolah, kemeja, baju dan sendal. Salah satu upaya dalam meningkatkan pelayanan adalah dengan menerapkan konsep Customer Relationship Management (CRM). Tujuan yang dicapai pada tahap ini adalah operabilitas hasil desain sistem yang telah dibuat. Dengan desain CRM, dapat meningkatkan penjualan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan pelanggan. Sistem ini dibuat untuk memudahkan UD. Nazwan dalam menjual produk, mengolah data secara komputerisasi dan dapat meningkatkan pelayanan kepada pelanggan. Kata kunci: E-CRM; konsumen; UD.nazwan 
Pelatihan Pembuatan Animasi Sederhana Menggunakan Macromedia Flash Untuk Meningkatkan Keterampilan Siswa SMK Karya Utama Tanjungbalai Andriyani, Suci; Efendi, Zulfan; Latiffani, Chitra
Jurdimas (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Royal Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Januari 2024
Publisher : STMIK Royal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/jurdimas.v7i1.2473

Abstract

Abstract: Education plays an important role in quality human civilization to increase human resources globally. This development reflects the close relationship between education, technological innovation and the advancement of knowledge as an integral part of society's social and intellectual evolution. The use of technology-based media is considered to provide significant benefits for both teachers and students in the process of teaching and learning activities. In this context, the education system in vocational schools should explore the potential resources or potential available around the school environment, which are relevant to the demands of the world of work. In an effort to prepare student graduates who are superior and ready to work and are able to compete in the job market, there needs to be preparation in improving the hard skills and soft skills of mature students. This service activity aims to provide assistance and training to Karya Utama Vocational School students through the use of Multimedia Technology as additional skills. The method in this activity applies training and observation to students. As a result of this activity, 85% of students were able to create simple animations using Macromedia Flash software. Keywords: animation; macromedia flash; multimedia; training.
ANALISIS KEAKURATAN METODE DES DALAM MEMPREDIKSI PERMINTAAN KERAMIK DI FITRI KERAMIK Ramadhan, Fachri Nur; Syafwan, Havid; Latiffani, Chitra
J-Com (Journal of Computer) Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): Maret 2024
Publisher : STMIK Royal Kisaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/j-com.v4i1.2913

Abstract

Abstract: Fitri Keramik Shop sells various types of ceramics. In this research, the researcher created a system that can make it easier to predict demand for ceramics in the following month based on the categories in Fitri Keramik by explaining the correct method for forecasting, one of the methods that can be used is Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) which is a forecasting method using uses a number of new actual demand data to generate forecast values for future demand by finding the average value as a forecast for the future period. The results of predicting demand for ceramics using an alpha value of 0.3 and having the lowest error rate are May 2023, Terraso: 176; Mosaic : 169; Standard Ceramic Floor: 163; Squared : 117.            Keywords: Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing, Predicting Demand.  Abstrak: Toko Fitri Keramik melakukan penjualan berbagai jenis keramik. Pada penelitian ini, peneliti membuat sistem yang dapat memudahkan dalam meramalkan permintaan keramik pada bulan berikutnya berdasarkan kategori yang ada pada Fitri Keramik dengan memaparkan metode yang tepat dalam peramalan, salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan yaitu Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) yang merupakan metode peramalan dengan menggunakan sejumlah data aktual permintaan yang baru untuk membangkitkan nilai ramalan untuk permintaan dimasa yang akan datang dengan mencari nilai rata-rata tersebut sebagai ramalan untuk periode yang akan datang. Hasilnya dari memprediksi permintaan keramik dengan menggunakan nilai alpa 0,3 dan memiliki nilai tingkat error terendah yaitu Mei 2023, Teraso : 176; Mozaik : 169; Keramik Lantai Standart: 163; Kuadrat : 117. Kata kunci: Analisis, Double Exponential Smoothing, Memprediksi Permintaan.
Prediksi Jumlah Donor Darah menggunakan Pendekatan WMA dI Kantor PMI Kabupaten Asahan Aulia, Karina Putri; Handayani, Masitah; Latiffani, Chitra
Dinamik Vol 31 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Stikubank

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35315/dinamik.v31i1.10315

Abstract

The rapid development of information technology in today's digital era has significantly impacted organizational performance, particularly in data management and resource planning. One organization that heavily relies on accurate data availability is the Indonesian Red Cross (PMI), especially its Blood Donor Unit (UDD). UDD PMI of Asahan Regency faces challenges in determining monthly blood donor targets to maintain stable blood stock. A shortage of blood supply can be fatal for patients requiring transfusions. Therefore, a system is needed to forecast the number of blood donors, allowing for more accurate decision-making. This study utilizes the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method to predict the number of blood donors for the following month based on historical data from March 2024 to March 2025. The WMA method is chosen for its ability to assign greater weight to recent data, making the forecast more relevant and accurate. The results of this research are expected to assist UDD PMI Asahan Regency in anticipating blood needs and maintaining optimal stock availability.