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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Optimum : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan JEJAK Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan MODUS-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Ekonomi & Keuangan Islam Journal of Socioeconomics and Development EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH Ekuilibrium : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal REP (Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan) JURNAL ILMIAH MAKSITEK Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Income: Innovation Of Economics And Management Journal of Asset Management and Public Economy Asian Journal of Community Services (AJCS) Asian Journal of Healthcare Analytics Prosiding Seminar Nasional Pengabdian Masyarakat
Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
Ahmad Dahlan University
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Transmission of the Global Bank Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the US Foreign Bank Loans to Southeast Asian Economies Agus Salim; Ignatius Abasimi; Dini Yuniarti; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan; Suripto Suripto; Naveed Aslam; Sunil Kumar Chaudhary
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol 7, No 1: February 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v7i1.16975

Abstract

The empirical debate of foreign bank loans as an international intermediation transfer from industrialized to developing market economies, which concentrated on expenses and advantages, has continued. Our manuscript analyzes the determinants of US bank loans in selected Southeast Asian emerging markets. The most critical variables, based on the statistical approach built around the system-GMM, have a considerable effect on the growth rates of the origin and destination countries. Remarkably, the exchange rate significantly becomes a risk indicator which decrease the US bank flow. Finally, shock in the US economy has been transmitted to the Southeast Asian economies through foreign bank flow.
Measuring Inequality Using J-Bonet Index: What Can We Learn from Regional Data? Panjawa, Jihad Lukis; Guritno, Danur Condro; Sugiharti, Rr Retno; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi; Damayanti, Sekar Ayu
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 16, No 1 (2023): March 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v16i1.38850

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze Inequality Using J-Bonet Index Distribution based on regions dimension and its determinant factors. This study uses a quantitative research approach with Quantile Regression (QR) analysis. The results showed that overall, there was no noticeable difference in income inequality among regions. However, according to the status of regions and regions, the expansion area in eastern Indonesia is twice as high as regional income inequality in the parent area in the same region. Other findings, economic growth and poverty cause high-income inequality in eastern Indonesia, while in the western region of Indonesia has no significant effect. In western Indonesia, fiscal decentralization is the cause of high-income inequality between regions, while in eastern Indonesia has no significant effect. Human development has no real impact on income inequality. It is a preliminary study of inequality using J-Bonet and its determinants in Indonesia based on regions dimension with Quantile Regression (QR) as an analysis tool. It can add empirical evidence about the inequality and region dimension.
Determinant of Property Price Through The Monetary Variables: An ARDL Approach Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan; Uswatun Khasanah; Siti 'Aisyah Baharudin
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 24, No 1 (2023): JEP 2023
Publisher : Muhammadiyah University Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v24i1.20588

Abstract

The 2008 financial crisis demonstrates that studies on property price volatility are important because it impacts domestic economic conditions. This study identifies the volatility of property prices through monetary variables. This current study employs the ARDL method to determine the effect of monetary variables in the short and long term. The study results show that GDP as a proxy for income negatively affects residential property prices in Indonesia, and inflation positively affects property prices. There is a difference in the effect of domestic interest rates on property prices where there is a direct effect on domestic interest rates followed by the COVID-19 crisis. Meanwhile, foreign interest rates have a negative effect in the short term and a positive effect in the long term. This study implies that strong monetary operation through interest rates can maintain public expectations of prices, especially property prices.
Money Demand Analysis through Business Cycle in Indonesia Isna Melati; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
EKUILIBRIUM : JURNAL ILMIAH BIDANG ILMU EKONOMI Vol 18, No 2 (2023): September
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Ponorogo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24269/ekuilibrium.v18i2.2023.pp203-212

Abstract

There is still debate about the role of monetary aggregates (money demand) and their nature in the domestic economy, whether there is a direct affect and indirect affect. After the 2008 crisis, monetary aggregates became a monetary policy tool that played an important role in maintaining domestic economic stability. This study aims to examine macroeconomic variables on the demand for money in Indonesia from 2000Q1-2021Q4 using the VECM approach. The business cycle is used as a proxy for the income variable with the Hodrick-Prescott Filter method on the GDP variable. The results show that income has a high degree of variability in the demand for money and there is a sensitivity in the response of the demand for money to fluctuations in domestic interest rates. The implication of this research the application of domestic interest rates at the lowest level can encourage income which can increase the demand for money in Indonesia.
Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis of Cocoa Export in Indonesia Khesita Lail Lintang; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol 7, No 2: August 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v7i2.17083

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the value of cocoa exports in Indonesia to shocks from cocoa production, international cocoa prices, rupiah exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The data used is time series data from 1989-2020. The analysis used is Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Based on the results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) test cocoa exports responded positively to a shock of the cocoa amount it means that an increase in the amount of cocoa production will impact increasing cocoa exports in Indonesia. The value of cocoa exports responded negatively to shocks international cocoa prices. The value of cocoa exports responded negatively to the exchange rate and positif response to the GDP shock. Based on the Variance Decomposition results, international cocoa prices contributed 16.70%, the rupiah exchange rate contributed 26.62%, GDP contributed 9.94%, and FDI contributed 1.33% to changes in cocoa exports. The amount of cocoa production is the variable that contributes the most from other variables to changes in cocoa exports, which is 43.97%. The implication of the study suggest that increasing productivity of cocoa can increase the cocoa exports and would bring more contribution to the GDP from agricultural sector.
The role of social variables on growth in South of Sumatera: A dynamic panel data analysis Meilinda, Riska Putri; Kurniawan, Mahrus Lutfi Adi
JOURNAL OF SOCIOECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT Vol 7 No 1 (2024): April
Publisher : Publisher of Widyagama University of Malang (UWG Press)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31328/jsed.v7i1.4984

Abstract

Policy makers in all countries have an orientation towards economic growth and identify the factors that influence growth. This study applies social variables in the economic growth model, this is inseparable from the views of classical and neoclassical economists that human resources play an important role in economic growth. The research gap is applying short-term and long-term estimates of social variables to the economic growth model in South Sumatra Province. Research using dynamic panel data on the GMM system. The results showed that the human development index (HDI) as a proxy for human capital has a positive effect on economic growth in the short and long term, another result, the labor force, unemployment and poverty consistently have a negative effect on growth in South Sumatra Province in the short and long term. The implication of this research is to improve the quality and quantity of education and health facilities and policy for education to improve cognitive skills because it can produce a labor force with high skills. Sustainable fiscal policy and pro-poor visions and encouraging investment to create more jobs.JEL Classification C31; I25; H75To cite this article: Meilinda, R. P., & Kurniawan, M. L. A (2024). The role of social variables on growth in South of Sumatera: A dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 7(1), 68-76. https://doi.org/10.31328/jsed.v7i1.4984
Panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression on Employment in Tourism Sector: Evidence in Central Java Province Dindha Uswatun Khasanah; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
EKO-REGIONAL Vol 19, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32424/1.erjpe.2024.19.1.3369

Abstract

Job opportunities are the main problem faced by Indonesia because the large of population, high population growth rate and large workforce. The tourism sector has a large multiplier effect on employment and become a potential sector as a source of income for a country or region. By combining cross-section and time-series data in 35 districts and cities in Central Java Province from 2016-2020 and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Panel approach. The results showed that supporting infrastructure for the tourism sector, such as the number of hotel rooms and the number of restaurants, had an effect on employment in the tourism sector, and a positive effect was shown by the variable number of tourist objects and tourist visits. The coefficient value on the wage variable which is quite large indicates that the elasticity of employment related to wages is quite high. The implication of the research is increasing the quality and quantity of sustainable tourist objects can attract an increase in foreign and domestic tourist visits so as to increase the workforce through the tourism sector. The implication of the study to strengthen among government, private sector and local community to develop sustainable tourism sectors
Structural Analysis of Import Oil and Gas in Indonesia Naidhisyia Azzahra; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 21 No. 02 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan
Publisher : Pusat Pengkajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/jep.v21i02.28043

Abstract

As a world crude oil exporter, Indonesia can only meet domestic oil needs of 40% and 60% through imports. The level of imports in the oil and gas sector, which is higher than exports, impacts the trade balance, which can threaten the stability of the domestic economy. This study analyzes oil and gas import policies using time-series data from 2005Q1-2021Q4 using the VECM approach. The study results show that GDP, inflation, world oil prices, and interest rates affect oil and gas imports. Structural analysis shows that inflation and world oil prices are essential in oil and gas import policies. The implications of the research show that apart from political policies, decisions on oil and gas imports must also pay attention to conditions of domestic inflation and international oil prices to stabilize domestic economic conditions.
Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on Demand for Money in Indonesia Veisa Arthamevia Alif; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
INCOME: Innovation of Economics and Management Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): June
Publisher : LPPM Universitas KH. A. Wahab Hasbullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32764/income.v4i1.4983

Abstract

This research aims to determine the influence of macroeconomic variables on the demand for money in Indonesia. The research applies the broad money variable (M2) as the dependent variable, this includes M1, quasi money (including savings, time deposits in rupiah and foreign currency, as well as current accounts in foreign currency), and securities issued by the monetary system owned by the domestic private sector with a remaining term of up to one year. The research uses time-series data from 1993-2023 and the OLS method. The research results show that exports influence the demand for money, a positive coefficient value indicates that increasing exports will increase the money supply. The GDP variable has a negative effect on the money supply in Indonesia, the higher the GDP, the money supply will decrease which can be caused by a decrease in people's purchasing power, the transfer of "wealth" to other instruments and the role of money which is used more as savings by the public. Depreciation of the exchange rate causes the prices of imported goods to become more expensive. Apart from that, it can affect the condition of the domestic economy which causes a decrease in people's purchasing power so that it can reduce the money supply and inflation has no effect on the money supply in Indonesia. The implication of the research is that government policies are needed that encourage people's purchasing power and exchange rate stability to improve the domestic economy
ANALISIS VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP UTANG LUAR NEGERI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN VAR Achmad Amirul Dinul; Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan
Modus Vol. 36 No. 2 (2024): VOL 36 NO 2 (2024)
Publisher : Faculty of Business and Economics Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24002/modus.v36i2.8910

Abstract

By undertaking development, a country may accelerate its economic growth and overcome various obstacles. Foreign debt occurs as a part of the policy to fund national projects, to cover budget deficit, and to stimulate economic growth. This study aims to analyze the effects of interest rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate, and export on foreign debt in the 1970-2021 period. Secondary data were derived from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), and the Ministry of Finance. The variables analyzed in this study were foreign debt, GDP, export, interest rate, and exchange rate from 1970 to 2021. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method was used to identify the shock of independent variables responded by foreign debt as the dependent variable. The results showed that there was a positive response from foreign debt to the changes in interest rate and GDP, and a negative response to the changes in exchange rates and export. The improvement in macroeconomic conditions, especially the stability of exchange rate and the increase of export, may improve the trust of creditors and the sustainability of foreign debt. Keywords: foreign debt; exchange rate; export; VAR. Dengan melakukan pembangunan, negara dapat mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengatasi berbagai kendala pembangunan. Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) muncul sebagai kebijakan untuk membiayai proyek nasional, menutup defisit anggaran dan menggerakkan roda perekonomian. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga, Pendapatan Domestik Bruto (PDB), kurs, dan ekspor terhadap ULN pada periode 1970-2021. Data sekunder yang digunakan berasal dari sumber seperti International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan Kementerian Keuangan. Variabel yang dianalisis meliputi ULN, PDB, ekspor, suku bunga, dan kurs dalam rentang waktu 1970 hingga 2021. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR) untuk mengidentifikasi guncangan dari variabel independen yang direspon oleh ULN sebagai variabel dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat respon positif dari ULN terhadap gejolak suku bunga dan PDB, dan respon negatif terhadap gejolak kurs dan ekspor. Penguatan kondisi makroekonomi pada stabilitas nilai tukar dan meningkatkan ekspor dapat meningkatkan kepercayaan kreditor dan keberlanjutan ULN. Kata kunci: utang luar negeri; kurs; ekspor; VAR.
Co-Authors Achmad Amirul Dinul Afla Afifa Aminarta Agus Salim Damayanti, Sekar Ayu Dindha Uswatun Khasanah Dini Yuniarti Guritno, Danur Condro Ignatius Abasimi Indanazulfa Qurrota A'yun INDANAZULFA QURROTA A’YUN Isna Melati Jihad Lukis Panjawa Jihad Lukis Panjawa Khesita Lail Lintang Khoirudin, Rifki Lak lak Nazhat El Hasanah Lestari Sukarniati Meilinda, Riska Putri Muhammad Safar Nasir Naidhisyia Azzahra Naveed Aslam Naveed Aslam NILMAWANI . Reza Ananda Putra Siti 'Aisyah Baharudin Sugiharti, Rr. Retno Sunil Kumar Chaudhary Suripto Suripto Uswatun Khasanah Uswatun Khasanah Veisa Arthamevia Alif Widodo, Arif Wisnu Hammam Pratama