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All Journal Agromet Indonesian Journal of Geography Majalah Geografi Indonesia Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Forum Geografi Omni-Akuatika Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim
Rahmat Hidayat
Departemen Geofisika Dan Meteorologi, Fakultas Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Institut Pertanian Bogor
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Environmental Science

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Journal : Agromet

 1 
Variabilitas Curah Hujan Indonesia dan Hubungannya dengan ENSO/IOD: Estimasi Menggunakan Data JRA-25/JCDAS Rahmat Hidayat; Kentaro Ando
Agromet Vol. 28 No. 1 (2014)
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1010.222 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.28.1.1-8

Abstract

Rainfall variability over Indonesia and its relation to El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events were investigated using the Japanese 25-year reanalysis/Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/ JCDAS). The JRA-25 data consistently depicts seasonal variation of Indonesian rainfall with a wet season that peaks at December-January and a dry season that peaks in July-August when the convection belt moved northward. Composite analysis of rainfall, sea surface temperature and low-level wind anomalies have shown that the impact of ENSO/IOD on rainfall variations in Indonesia is clearly dominant during dry season. Drought conditions typically occur during El Niño years when SST anomalies surrounding Indonesia are cool and walker circulation is weakened, resulting in anomalous surface easterlies across Indonesia. In contrast, in the wet season, the weakening of the relationship between ENSO and Indonesian rainfall is linked to the transition between surface southeasterlies to northwesterlies. At this time persistent surface easterly anomalies across Indonesia superimposed on the climatological mean winds during a warm phase of ENSO event acts to reduce the wind speed resulting reduced the negative DJF rainfall anomalies.
Season Onset Prediction Based on Statistical Model for Malang Regency, East Java Fithriya Y Rohmawati; Urfana Istiqomah; Rahmat Hidayat
Agromet Vol. 36 No. 1 (2022): JUNE 2022
Publisher : PERHIMPI (Indonesian Association of Agricultural Meteorology)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/j.agromet.36.1.21-30

Abstract

Prediction of season onset is important for many sectors, particularly on agricultural practices, as its usage for reducing climate risk and planning activities. Current knowledge on season onset prediction mainly focused on large area, which remains research challenge for local level. This research developed model prediction of season onset for Malang Regency, East Java based on global climate data. The research specifically aimed to: (i) determine the onset date of rainy and dry season, (ii) generate equation for onset date prediction using principal component regression (PCR) approach, and (iii) evaluate the model performance. We depend on statistical model based on a combine of domain time and principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric variables, namely sea level pressure, outgoing longwave radiation, and zonal wind. We used the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for model evaluation, especially for determination of onset date. Based on cumulative anomalies rainfall, the onset date for dry season occurred in the early May, whereas for rainy season it was in early November. The results showed that regression models of the principal components had a good skill to predict onset date for both seasons. It has been confirmed by a low error and a high correlation. Visually, the dynamic of onset dates from model was mostly identical to the observation. The predictive model for rainy season had higher performance compared to the model for dry season. This finding was confirmed by insignificant difference resulted from the independent t-test between model and observed onset dates. The best model for dry season was conducted by domain time of February, whereas for rainy season was domain time of August. This research can be used to complement previous studies regarding season onset prediction in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Adi Mulsandi Ahmad Bey Alfi Wardah Farihah Arif Satria Arnida Lailatul Latifah Danang Eko Nuryanto Edvin Aldrian Eko Supriyadi Fatkhuroyan Fatkhuroyan Fithriya Yulisiasih Rohmawati Herlina Ika Ratnawati Hidayat Pawitan Indra Gustari Irza Arnita Nur Kartika, Qurrata A'yun Kentaro Ando Liky Ledoh Lutfi Fitriano Mamenun Mamenun Mareta, Lesi Misnawati Novvria Sagita Rini Hidayati Rista Hernandi Virgianto Tania June Urfana Istiqomah