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Karakteristik Pola Curah Hujan di Wilayah Sekitar Teluk (Studi Daerah Nabire Provinsi Papua dan Fakfak Papua Barat) Rully Affandi; Atika Lubis; Deni Septiadi
Jurnal Matematika & Sains Vol 17, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Bandung

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Abstract

Pola curah hujan di suatu wilayah memiliki karateristik yang berbeda-beda. Hal ini dikarenakan adanya perbedaan lintang, gerak semu matahari, letak geografis, topografi serta interaksi berbagai macam sirkulasi udara baik itu lokal, regional maupun global. Analisis spektral merupakan suatu cara untuk melihat adanya periodisitas yang mungkin tersembunyi dalam suatu deret waktu, dengan melakukan suatu transformasi dari domain waktu ke domain frekuensi, pola osilasi akan terlihat sebagai puncak energi spektral. Fakfak yang berada dekat dengan Teluk Berau, pola curah hujannya bersifat lokal. Hasil ini sama dengan yang dipublikasikan Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG). Hal ini dikuatkan oleh analisis spektral dengan kuatnya osilasi harian. Pengaruh monsunal memperkuat sirkulasi harian serta distribusi massa udara yang berasal dari Laut Aru, Arafura dan wilayah lainnya di Belahan Bumi Selatan (BBS). Akan tetapi interaksi teluk kurang kuat dibandingkan pengaruh  lautan yang berada di bagian selatan. Nabire yang secara langsung dekat dengan Teluk Cenderawasih, pola curah hujannya cenderung bersifat monsunal, berbeda dengan yang telah dipublikasikan BMKG dan dapat menjadi masukan terhadap penyusunan peta sebaran pola curah hujan. Adanya Teluk Cenderawasih, memberikan pengaruh yang kuat dalam sirkulasi harian. Pada periode Desember, Januari dan Februari (DJF), sirkulasi monsunal Asia semakin memperkuat pola angin dan distribusi massa udara yang berasal dari Teluk Cenderawasih bagian utara, Samudera Pasifik dan wilayah lainnya di BBU. Kata Kunci : Monsun, Teluk, Sirkulasi lokal, Wavelet, FFT, Curah hujan.   Rainfall Pattern Characteristic Around Bay Area (Case studies of Nabire area, the Province of Papua, and Fakfak the Western Papua) Abstract The rainfall pattern has different characteristics, due to latitude, the suns apparent motion, geography, topography, and interactions of various scales in the local, regional, and global air circulation. Spectral analysis is a way to see the existence of periodicity that may be hidden in the time series. The spectral analysis carried out transformation from the time domain to the frequency domain where the oscillation pattern could be seen as a peak of spectral energy. The rainfall pattern of Fakfak, near to the Berau Bay, is considered as local type. This result is inline with the previously published results by Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG). This is strengthened by spectral analysis with a strong daily oscillation. Monsunal circulation  strengthen daily circulation and distribution of air masses from the Aru Sea, Arafura and other areas in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the interaction of the bay is less powerful than the ocean in the southern region. The rainfall pattern of Nabire which is close to the Cenderawasih Bay tends to be monsunal, in contrast to be published results of BMKG. It could be used as additional input to the distribution of rainfall pattern map’s construction. The existence of Cenderawasih Bay, has provided a powerfull influences in daily circulation. In the December, January and February (DJF) period, Asian winter monsoon circulation strengthen distribution of air masses from the northern Cenderawasih Bay, The Pacific Ocean and other regions in The Northern Hemisphere. Keywords : Monsoon, Bay, Local circulation, Wavelet, FFT, Rainfall.
TIPE IKLIM OLDEMAN 2011-2100 BERDASARKAN SKENARIO RCP 4.5 DAN RCP 8.5 DI WILAYAH SUMATERA SELATAN Kusumo, Irlando; Septiadi, Deni
Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Vol 3 No 3 (2016): Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Publisher : Unit Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim merupakan bagian permasalahan yang paling serius bagi kehidupan masyarakat dunia. Salah satu sektor yang sangat rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim adalah sektor pertanian. Seiring dengan berjalannya waktu sektor pertanian wilayah Sumatera Selatan pun ikut terancam sebagai dampak dari perubahan iklim. Salah satu cara yang digunakan untuk melihat gambaran iklim masa depan dapat dilakukan dengan cara melakukan proyeksi iklim berdasarkan skenario tertentu. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan bulanan pada 14 titik pengamatan pos hujan serta data model Historical dan Projection dari skenario RCP 4.5 dan RCP 8.5 di wilayah Sumatera Selatan. Hasil proyeksi perubahan tipe iklim Oldeman berdasarkan skenario RCP 4.5 dan RCP 8.5 memberikan gambaran iklim Oldeman di wilayah Sumatera Selatan bertipe iklim basah terlihat semakin basah, sedangkan wilayah bertipe iklim kering terlihat semakin meluas. Memberikan gambaran iklim Oldeman hampir di seluruh wilayah Sumatera Selatan berubah ke tipe iklim yang semakin basah. Kata Kunci : Klasifikasi Oldeman, Perubahan Iklim, Skenario, Proyeksi
COMPARISON TWO LOCATIONS OF LIGHTNING DETECTION Septiadi, Deni; Suntoko, Hadi; Widodo, Anton; Noor, Riza Arian
Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Vol 5 No 2 (2018): Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Publisher : Unit Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2733.444 KB) | DOI: 10.36754/jmkg.v5i2.53

Abstract

The objective of this study was to identify the lightning distribution by comparing of two lightning sensors located in Jakarta and Bandung. Using Storm Tracker Lightning Detector maintained by the Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Cloud-to-Ground lightning (CG) analyzed with a various radius i.e. 0.1?, 0.5? and 1.0?. Storm Tracker Lightning Detector consists of an antenna connected to the PCI card and able to detect Low Frequency (LF) of radio signals generated by lightning (10 KHz to 200 KHz). The data used are based on the available records of near real time 15 minutes CG lightning data. This study aims at revealing ideally possible location of the lightning sensor to optimize lightning detection. For further analysis, the distribution of the CG lightning estimated in the target area located about the middle between Jakarta and Bandung. The analysis of lightning described by calculating the detection efficiency of lightning sensor and the analysis of lightning location error.
EVALUATING METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT (NPP) PUSPIPTEK SERPONG Deni Septiadi; Arief Yuniarto; Agung Hari Saputra
Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika Vol 7 No 3 (2020): Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Publisher : Unit Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36754/jmkg.v7i3.197

Abstract

Precise and consistent meteorological data is needed to support safety and security as well as in an effort to meet safety requirements and criteria from the initial stages of siting, design, construction, even activities in the previous stages to the operation stage, handling safety during and during decommissioning and waste management radioactive. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify and analyze the distribution of data distribution to see the extent to which meteorological data for nuclear site area provide accurate and precise data so that it can be used scientifically. In the present paper, the concentrations calculated by this method are compared with data observed over Portable Weather Station (PWS) and existing Automatic Weather Stations (AWS). Good agreement was confirmed in similar data observed and existing of PWS or AWS data due to statistically calculating test using correlation, deviation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The two AWS tested, both Experimental Power Reactor (RDE) and Nuclear Serpong Area (KNS), gave fairly good scores statistically. Analysis on October 13, 2020, the value of RMSE, and the correlation between AWS RDE and KNS, respectively, is 361.2; 67.6 and 0.56. Then the data analysis on October 14, 2019 which compared AWS RDE and PWS, the value of Standard Deviation, RMSE, and the correlation between AWS RDE and PWS were 137.3; 8.65 and 0.48. The availability of good data is 98.3% for RDE and 95.3% for KNS, respectively.
Komparasi Stasiun Meteorologi Calon Tapak RDNK dengan Kawasan Nuklir Serpong sebagai Upaya Memperkaya Data Pemantauan Cuaca dalam Proses Perizinan Arif Yuniarto; Deni Septiadi
Jurnal Pengembangan Energi Nuklir Vol 21, No 2 (2019): Desember 2019
Publisher : Pusat Kajian Sistem Energi Nuklir, Badan Tenaga Nuklir Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17146/jpen.2019.21.2.5706

Abstract

Kajian aspek meteorologi dalam rencana pembangunan Reaktor Daya Non Komersial (RDNK) merupakan salah satu hal penting dalam proses perizinan tapak, tahap konstruksi, komisioning dan operasi. Dalam rangka pemenuhan aspek tersebut, Badan Tenaga Nuklir Nasional (BATAN) membangun stasiun meteorologi di tapak RDNK pada tahun 2018. Hasil evaluasi data cuaca pada stasiun meteorologi RDNK kurang representatif karena pengamatan data dilakukan dalam rentang waktu yang pendek sehingga perlu pengumpulan data cuaca dari stasiun meteorologi lain, yaitu stasiun meteorologi di tapak Kawasan Nuklir Serpong (KNS). Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan data cuaca hasil pengukuran dari kedua stasiun meteorologi di tapak KNS dan tapak RDNK sehingga dapat dijadikan justifikasi dalam proses evaluasi tapak RDNK, serta kegiatan evaluasi lanjutan dalam proses perizinan. Parameter cuaca yang diamati dalam penelitian ini meliputi temperatur, tekanan, kelembaban relatif, radiasi matahari dan curah hujan selama satu tahun. Data cuaca yang telah lolos penyaringan dibandingkan pada waktu yang sama. Data tersebut dianalisis menggunakan statistik deskriptif, box-plot, korelasi Pearson, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), analisis regresi linier dan analisis kecenderungan. Hasil kajian menunjukkan adanya korelasi positif yang sangat kuat dan kecenderungan yang sama dari waktu ke waktu antara parameter cuaca di kedua stasiun meteorologi tersebut. Dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa tapak RDNK memiliki karakteristik meteorologi yang sama dengan tapak KNS.
VARIABILITAS MUSIMAN CLOUD GROUND LIGHTNING DAN KAITANNYA DENGAN POLA HUJAN DI WILAYAH JAWA (SUDI KASUS BANDUNG DAN SEMARANG) Deni Septiadi; Bayong Tjasyono
Bumi Lestari Journal of Environment Vol 11 No 1 (2011)
Publisher : Environmental Research Center (PPLH) of Udayana University

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to describe the relationship between CG (Cloud Ground) lightning observation data to rainfall in Java region. CG lightning data obtained by using Lightning Detector that is able to track low frequency of radio signals from electrical processes lightning discharge and installed in Bandung Geophysics Station. For better resolution, data is limited within a radius of 10 km square of study area. The results showed a strong relationships between CG and rainfall (r2 = 0.9) and the dominance of CG+ compared with CG- throughout the season with a peak in the MAM (March-April-May) for Bandung (40.6%) and DJF ( December-January-February) for Semarang (48%). Understanding of the peculiarities of lightning activity will provide important information in the structure, the growth of clouds, atmospheric labilitas or as a warning extreme weather. Therefore, it is possible to utilize CG lightning as predictors for rainfall prediction.
Analisis Tren Perubahan Intensitas Hujan (Studi Kasus: Jakarta dan Bogor) Tias Ravena Maitsa; Arno Adi Kuntoro; Deni Septiadi
Jurnal Teknik Sipil Vol 28 No 2 (2021): Jurnal Teknik Sipil
Publisher : Institut Teknologi Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/jts.2021.28.2.5

Abstract

Abstrak Penelitian ini mengkaji perbedaan Kurva Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) di wilayah Jakarta dan Bogor yang dihitung berdasarkan data Stasiun Kemayoran dan Citeko, terhadap pendekatan Metode Alternating Block Method (ABM), Modified Mononobe, Standar Nasional Indonesia (SNI) Tata Cara Perhitungan Debit Banjir (SNI 2415-2016), dan SNI Tata Cara Perencanaan Drainase Permukaan Jalan (SNI 03-3424-1994). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa curah hujan di wilayah kajian didominasi oleh kejadian ≤ 4 jam dengan rata-rata persentase volume hujan tertinggi pada dua jam pertama yakni 24,9% di Citeko dan 29,9% di Kemayoran. Rata-rata selisih besaran intensitas hujan berdasarkan data observasi dibandingkan dengan pendekatan Metode ABM serta Modified Mononobe mencapai >14%. Intensitas hujan yang dihitung berdasarkan SNI 03-3424-1994 memberikan hasil rata-rata yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan intensitas hujan observasi. Pada periode ulang 2, 5, dan 10 tahun, rata-rata perbedaan intensitas hujan berturut-turut sebesar 26,8 mm/jam, 17,6 mm/jam, dan 11,6 mm/jam di Citeko, serta 36,3 mm/jam, 24,7 mm/jam, dan 17,3 mm/jam di Kemayoran. Perhitungan yang sama menggunakan Modified Mononobe memberikan rata-rata intensitas yang lebih rendah yakni 17 mm/jam, 11,4 mm/jam, dan 8,9 mm/jam di Citeko, namun lebih tinggi sebesar 24,1 mm/jam, 47 mm/jam, dan 49,1 mm/jam di Kemayoran. Kajian ini menggarisbawahi perlunya pengembangan standar desain secara kontinu untuk menghadapi tantangan perubahan iklim. Kata-kata Kunci: Distribusi hujan, intensity-duration-frequency, intensitas hujan, alternating block method, modified mononobe. Abstract This study examines differences between Intensity Duration Curve (IDF) in Jakarta and Bogor Area, represented by Kemayoran and Citeko Rainfall Station, with the Alternating Block Method (ABM), Modified Mononobe, Indonesian National Standard (SNI) for Calculating Flood Discharge, and SNI for Road Surface Drainage Design. The results showed that the rainfall in Jakarta and Bogor mainly was less than 4 hours, with the highest percentage of rainfall volume at the first two hours, about 24.9% at Citeko and 29.9% at Kemayoran. The average bias of rainfall intensity calculated from observation data compared with ABM and Modified Mononobe was >14%. Average rainfall intensity, which was computed using SNI 03-3424-1994 was higher than rainfall intensity calculated from observation data. For the return period of 2, 5, and 10 years, the bias was about 26.8 mm/h, 17.6 mm/h, and 11.6 mm/h, respectively, at Citeko, and 36.3 mm/h, 24.7 mm/h, and 17.3 mm/h, respectively at Kemayoran. Same comparison using Modified Mononobe resulted in lower rainfall intensity about 17 mm/h, 11.4 mm/h, and 8.9 mm/h, respectively at Citeko, and 24.1 mm/h, 47 mm/h, and 49.1 mm/h, respective, at Kemayoran. This study underlined the importance of continuous development of design standards to cope with climate change. Keywords: Intensity-duration-frequency, rainfall distribution, rainfall intensity, alternating block method, modified mononobe.  
KARAKTERISTIK PETIR DARI AWAN KE BUMI DAN HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN CURAH HUJAN Deni Septiadi; Safwan Hadi; Bayong Tjasyono
Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 8, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional

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Abstract

 This paper describes the relationship between CG (Cloud to Ground) lightning and the rainfall of Bandung and surrounding area. CG lightning data obtained by Lightning Detector that is able to track low frequency of radio signals from electrical processes lightning discharge which installed in Bandung Geophysics Station. For better resolution, data is limited within a radius of 10 km square of study area. Daily analysis during the year 2009 showed a strong relationships between CG and rainfall (r = 0,62 for CG+; r = 0,51 for CG- and r = 0,59 for total of CG). The electrification process dominated by CG- and the peak of CG occurs at MAM with the 43,6% total of CG and occurs at 15.00-17.00 LT. The mature stage occured after 13.00 LT. Keywords:Lightning, CG, Rainfall, Relationship
APLIKASI SOFT COMPUTING PADA PREDIKSI CURAH HUJAN DI KALIMANTAN Deni Septiadi
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol 9, No 2 (2008)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (416.896 KB) | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v9i2.24

Abstract

Analisis clustering curah hujan di Kalimantan menggunakan Jaringan Kompetitif Kohonen menghasilkan 5 kelompok wilayah yang disebut Zona Prediksi. Sementara itu spektrum data memperlihatkan sinyal sunspot hadir dalam deret waktu data curah hujan di semua Zona Prediksi dengan magnitude terbesar pada Zona Prediksi 2 yang mengindikasikan bahwa zona  tersebut memberikan respon langsung pada fenomena sunspot. Peranan aktivitas matahari pada pembentukan awan tinggi dipercayai berkaitan dengan variabilitas fluks sinar kosmik yang bervariasi terhadap lintang. Prediksi curah hujan bulanan dengan Metode ANFIS maupun Jaringan Neural dilakukan dengan menggunakan 1 Prediktor (curah hujan) dan 2 Prediktor (kombinasi antara sinar kosmik dan sunspot) dengan panjang data bervariasi yaitu 45 tahun, 30 tahun, dan 15 tahun  serta panjang data 46 tahun untuk prediksi tahunan (2007–2020). Secara keseluruhan keluaran Metode ANFIS 1 Prediktor menunjukkan nilai rata-rata RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) yang lebih kecil untuk prediksi bulanan. Namun pada prediksi tahunan, Metode ANFIS 2 Prediktor menunjukkan hasil yang lebih baik. Dengan demikian fenomena sunspot dan sinar kosmik sebagai prediktor perlu dipertimbangkan dalam melakukan prediksi jangka panjang karena memberikan akurasi yang lebih baik dibandingkan jika hanya menggunakan curah hujan sebagai prediktor. Clustering analysis of rainfall using competitive neural Kohonen yields 5 groups area called prediction zone. Meanwhile, data spectrum  shows that sunspot signal exist in time series of rainfall to all of prediction zone with the biggest magnitude at prediction zone 2 and indicates that zone gives direct response to the sunspot phenomena. Role of sunspot activity to the cloud formation believed relationships to the cosmic rays flux that various at latitude. Monthly rainfall prediction with ANFIS Method and Neural Network done with 1 Predictor (rainfall) and 2 Predictors (combine between cosmic rays and sunspot) at various length of data that is 45 years, 30 years, and 15 years and 46 years data length for yearly prediction (2007-2020). Over all, 1 Predictor ANFIS Method shows small average value RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) for monthly prediction. But, for yearly prediction 2 Predictors ANFIS Method shows more accurate. That’s way, sunspot  and cosmic rays phenomena as predictor needs to be considered for long term prediction because gives better accuracy then using rainfall as predictor.
IDENTIFIKASI MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCC) DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN DI BENUA MARITIM INDONESIA (BMI) SEPANJANG TAHUN 2018 Deni Septiadi; Yudhi Nugraha Septiadi
Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika Vol 20, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan BMKG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2392.873 KB) | DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v20i2.645

Abstract

One year observation of Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (BMI) and its impact to the rainfall are analyzed. This study is focused on the area of BMI where the MCCs formed and then the criteria are identified based on the size, initiate, duration, shape, and the eccentricity.  In term of rainfall, this research also confirm that MCCs  will have an impact to the rainfall distribution around the MCCs area.  The first MCCs was developed on March, 15 and covered 348,410 km2 of the area. The most significant of MCCs was contributed to a 108 mm of rainfall occurs on December, 28 with 11 hours of duration and covered 771,448 km2 of area. The lag-time between rainfall and the mature stage of MCCs could be 1-3 hours.  Furthermore, all initiations of the MCC occurred at night with a duration of between 8-15 hours. Throughout the MCCs event,  top cloud of temperature derived by the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT)-IR imagery could reached the temperature < -85 °C. Keywords : MCCs, BMI, rainfall, cloud