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All Journal MATEMATIKA SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya
susilo hariyanto
Undip
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Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java Hariyanto, Susilo; Zaenurrohman, Zaenurrohman; SRRM, Titi Udjiani
CAUCHY Vol 7, No 2 (2022): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi (May 2022) (Issue in Progress)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v7i2.13371

Abstract

COVID-19 is still a pandemic in Indonesia, and Central Java is no exception. New positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java are being discovered every day. Therefore, researchers try to predict new positive cases in Central Java. Many forecasting methods are currently developing, one of which is fuzzy time series (FTS). FTS has been also developed until now, one of which is a development of the FTS by combining the Markov chain as a defuzzification process. In FTS there is no definite formula to determine the length of the interval, so the researcher uses an average based to determine the length of the interval in the FTS Markov chain. Next, the researcher repartitioned based on the modified frequency density. The results of this study are that forecasting new positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java using the average based-FTS Markov chain based on a modified frequency density partitioning method has a good level of accuracy, this can be seen from the MAPE value of the method.
Kajian Hubungan Operator Accretive dan Operator Non Negatif Hariyanto, Susilo; Sumanto, Yusephus Decupertino; Solikhin, S; Aziz, Abdul; Saputro, Razis Aji
Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya 2018: Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1474.968 KB)

Abstract

Operator adalah suatu pemetaan dari ruang vektor ke ruang vektor. Jika operator ini memenuhi sifat linier,maka disebut operator linier. Dalam artikel ini akan dikaji mengenai suatu jenis operator linier tertentu yangdidefinisikan pada ruang Hilbert dan memiliki sifat bagian riil dari hasil kali dalamnya harus bernilai positif ataunol. Selanjutnya operator yang memenuhi sifat ini dinamakan dengan operator accretive. Selain operatoraccretive akan dikaji pula suatu jenis operator linier yang memiliki sifat hasil kali dalamnya dari bentuk tertentuharus bernilai positif atau nol. Operator ini disebut operator non negatif. Untuk memperjelas karakteristik darikedua jenis ini masingmasing akan dibahas secara rinci dan diberikan contoh. Disamping itu hubungan antaraoperator accretive dan operator non negatif juga merupakan salah satu pokok bahasan yang menarik. Olehkarena itu artikel ini juga membahas hubungan keduanya. Dari hubungan antara operator accretive dan operatornon negatif akan diperoleh suatu pernyataan bahwa jika
Group yang Dibangun Operator Linear Terbatas sebagai Suatu Penyelesaian MCA Homogen Hariyanto, Susilo
Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya 2017: Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (403.604 KB)

Abstract

Dalam paper ini diperkenalkan suatu group yang disusun dari semua operator linear terbatas. Definisi dan sifat-sifat dasarnya akan dibahas secara lengkap beserta contohnya. Hal ini bertujuan untuk memperjelas karakteristik dari group ini. Dengan menggunakan sifat-sifat tersebut, Masalah Cauchy Abstrak(MCA) homogen dapat ditentukan penyelesaiannya dalam bentuk semigroup operator linear terbatas.
A NUMERICAL STUDY OF SUBSTANCE SPREAD IN THE POLL FROM TWO POINT SOURCES Ashar, Nurcahya Yulian; Hariyanto, Susilo
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (474.08 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0009-0020

Abstract

Problems related to the purification of holding pool or reservoir become an interesting discussion in real events. In this paper, the author will modeling the distribution of the substance/purifier in a pool model with turbulent water flow using the diffusion-convection equation. The Dual Reciprocity Method is applied to the diffusion-convection equation whose derivation will be discussed in this paper. This method is chosen because the problem cannot be solved analytically, so it must be solved numerically. The Dual Reciprocity Method has good flexibility in problems of water infiltration, pollutant spread, and heat transfer. In this paper also discuss velocity profile of turbuelent flow from upcoming part of pool region. So before using DRM, will be used numerical solution of turbulent flow by k-epsilon turbulent model. In numerical calculations, two source points are selected whose positions are combined to see the most effective way to make the substance/purifier evenly distributed in the pool.
ANALYSIS OF BANKING DEPOSIT COST IN THE DYNAMICS OF LOAN: BIFURCATION AND CHAOS PERSPECTIVES Ansori, Moch. Fandi; Hariyanto, Susilo
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 4 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (452.552 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1283-1292

Abstract

A dynamic model of banking loan based on the gradient adjustment process is presented. The amount of loan that will be channeled in the future depends on the sign of the marginal profit of loan. In this paper, we study the deposit cost in the dynamics of a bank’s loan using bifurcation theory. The analysis shows that the deposit cost can affect the stability of loan equilibrium. If the deposit cost is too high, then the loan equilibrium can lose its stability trough transcritical bifurcation. Meanwhile, if the deposit cost is too low, then the loan equilibrium may lose its stability via flip bifurcation and road to chaos. The loan equilibrium stable if the deposit cost is in between the bifurcation values. These findings are confirmed by the numerical simulations. In addition, we present the graph of Lyapunov exponent to see the existence of chaos and the graph of chaotic loan that is sensitive to the initial condition.
PM10 AIR QUALITY INDEX MODELING USING ARFIMA-GARCH METHOD: BUNDARAN HI AREA OF DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE Hariyanto, Susilo; Wibawa, Salsabila Gustia; Solikhin, Solikhin
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2165-2180

Abstract

Air quality is an essential factor in urban life, and its’ assessment often relies on the concentration of measurable air pollution parameters. One critical parameter is Particulate Matter (PM), particularly PM10, which comprises solid or liquid particles dispersed in the air from various sources. One of the methods employed for predicting stock index prices is ARFIMA. ARFIMA is used to model long memory data characterized by a slowly decreasing Autocorrelation Function (ACF) plot (hyperbolic) or a difference value in the fractional from. This method is widely used due to its ability to handle nonstationarity issues in time series. However, the time series data often contain heteroskedasticity problems. Data with heteroscedasticity are then further addressed using the GARCH model, because it can model volatility changes occurring over longer periods and capture the persistence of volatility. The ARFIMA-GARCH model can explain long-memory patterns in time series data and address heteroscedasticity issues. The data are sourced from the Jakarta open data web, which is integrated with DLH DKI Jakarta Province. The aim of this research was to forecast the PM10 air quality index at the Bundaran HI Area in the Province of DKI Jakarta for the next 14 days, from January 1st to January 14th, 2021, using an ARFIMA model enhanced with GARCH. The analysis reveals that the best model is ARFIMA ([17], d, [1])-GARCH (1,1). Forecasting using this model resulted in a MAPE of 3.47%, indicating that the model is highly capable of forecasting several periods.
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Fatkhurohman Fatkhurohman Herdiana, Ratna L., Erly Moch Fandi Ansori Nurcahya Yulian Ashar Pratama, Jovian Dian Saputro, Razis Aji Saputro, Razis Aji Solikhin Solikhin Solikhin, S Solly Aryza Sumanto, Yusephus Decupertino Titi Udjiani SRRM Wibawa, Salsabila Gustia Y.D Sumanto Y.D. Sumanto YD Sumanto Zaenurrohman, Zaenurrohman