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MANUFACTURING COMPANY BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN INDONESIA WITH ALTMAN Z-SCORE MODEL Matturungan, Nur Hasbullah; Purwanto, Budi; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar
Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Vol. 15 No. 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (313.44 KB) | DOI: 10.18202/jam23026332.15.1.03

Abstract

Model Altman is one of the models used to predict financial distress. Some of the results of research that conducted in Indonesia showed that Altman model is completely accurate in predicting financial distress but the other found the opposite results. This inconsistency indicates the need to adapt the model by checking whether variables affect Altman model in financial distress companies in Indonesia and the adjustment coefficients Altman to be able to better predict about financial distress. The results showed that the partial test working capital/total assets, retained earnings to total assets, and earning before interest and tax to total assets were able to classify the company's financial distress. However, the model that formed by five variables were able to classify financial distress well with an accuracy of 87.8%.
TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AND COMPETITION LEVEL OF INDONESIA BANKING IN MICROFINANCE MARKET Pandi, Pandi; Purwanto, Budi; Irwanto, Abdul kohar
Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Vol. 16 No. 3 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (259 KB) | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jam.2018.016.03.12

Abstract

The purpose of this study are to find the relationship between SME credit competitions with the technical efficiency of banking. It involves banking statistics data from commercial banks and rural banks. Panzar-Rosse model was applied to measure a level of competition while the efficiency was determined using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Data panel regression was utilized to analyze the Panzar-Rosse model coefficient while the efficiency score was obtained by using linear programming. The relevance of competition and efficiency was explored using the Granger causality test. Research result shows competition among BPRs inside a perfect competition market has an impact on their technical efficiency. A better competition between BPRs in a perfect competition market impact to lower technical efficiency. BPR competition with commercial banks occurred in a monopolistic market. In the monopolistic market, better technical efficiency would lower the competition. Technical efficiency score when commercial banks entered the competition revealed a climb score.
Analisis Hubungan Corporate Governance, Corporate Social Responsibility, dan Corporate Financial Performance pada Perusahaan Kompas 100 Caesari, Annisa Putri; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar; Syamsun, Muhammad
Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Vol. 14 No. 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (382.482 KB) | DOI: 10.18202/jam23026332.14.1.09

Abstract

In accommodating the objectives and obligations, the company may apply a system called Corporate Governance (CG) and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The implementation of CG and CSR are related because CSR is a consequence of the implementation of CG. CG and CSR are also interconnected with Corporate Financial Performance (CFP). Through the implementation of CG, the company can improve CFP. While the relationship between CSR and CFP can be associated positively or negatively. CSR can improve CFP during the company does not over investment in CSR activities. The research was conducted on one hundred companies listed in Kompas100 index to determine the relationship of implementation of CG on the disclosure of CSR, the relationship of implementation of CG to the CFP, the relationship disclosure of CSR to the CFP, and the relationship of implementation of CG to the CFP with CSR as a moderating variable in the sample companies. structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis uses in order to determine the relationship of these three variables. The results show that the implementation of CG which is reflected in board size indicator significantly positive related to the disclosure of CSR activities. However, the implementation of CG significantly negative related to the company's financial performance that is reflected in PER ratio. Moreover, CSR disclosure is significantly negative related to the financial performance. Due to the relationship between CG and CFP and the relationship between CSR and CFP is significantly negative related, implementation of CG is also significantly negative related to the CFP through the disclosure of CSR as a moderating variable.
Dampak Krisis Keuangan Global 2008 terhadap Volatilisas Return Saham Perbankan di BEI Taftazani, Afif M.; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar; Cahyadi, Eko Rudy
Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Vol. 13 No. 1 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/

Abstract

The study aims to analyze and create the model of stock returns movement in a banking company in IDX and make test for asymmetric effects in stock returns volatility due to the global financial crisis in 2008. Volatility is generally characterized by the rise and fall of a value at specified intervals with high deviation. As a result, the volatility causes an unstable condition, varied and hard to predict. Moreover, High volatility impacts an inconstant of variance and error, causing heterocedastity effects. The existence of an extraordinary event that causes a shock can influence volatility affecting an asymmetric of variance and error, commonly called asymmetric shock/effect. This shock is due to the global financial crisis of 2008. This research is an event study, where the event being analyzed as the impact of the global crisis of 2008. The Study in which relate to the effect of a crisis on stock return volatility in Indonesia is still rare. It is expected to help of the research and provide feedback to another researchers in order to study and develop the studies with similar themes, especially concerning to the impact/influence of the crisis or the influence of others. For investors, it can be used as a consideration of the investment decision making more accurate. The data that has been analyzed are daily stock price period August 8, 2006 to 29 August 2014 at five banking companies: BMRI, BBNI. BBKP, BII and BLNI.
Pengaruh Pengungkapan Corporate Social Responsibility terhadap Kinerja Keuangan dan Harga Saham pada Sektor Properti di Bursa Efek Indonesia Hidayansyah, Putri Fika; Hubeis, Musa; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar
Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi Vol. 6 No. 1 (2015): Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (737.889 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jmo.v6i1.12195

Abstract

The company operational activities are performed with the purpose to maximize shareholder values; however, the company's activities have impacts on environment, social, economiy and community. In order to comply with the government regulation, companies must conduct Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), because investors are more interested in companies which have a good image in the community. This leads to make consumer loyalty higher and subsequently increases the company's profitability and company's stock values. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of CSR disclosure on Corporate Financial Performance (CFP) and stock prices. This study used 20 samples of property companies in the Indonesia’s Stock Exchange selected by purposive sampling. Data were processed and analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with software smartPLS. This research shows that valid indicators measure CSR at property sector include environment, human rights and society. A valid indicator measuring financial performance construct is only Market Value Added (MVA) and stock return is the valid indicator to measure stock price construct. The hypothesis test shows that CSR disclosure had significant effect on CFP, but the CSR disclosure had no significant effects on stock price, and CFP had no significant effects on stock prices.Keywords : corporate social responsibility, financial performance, stock price, property sector
Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Memengaruhi Kelancaran Kredit dan Penilaian Kesehatan Keuangan pada Amartha Microfinance Pramono, Puteri Nurani Nur Syari’ati; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar; Permanasari, Yusrina
Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi Vol. 7 No. 1 (2016): Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (848.743 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jmo.v7i1.14065

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengelolaan kredit, faktor-faktor sumberdaya manusia (SDM) dan nasabah yang memengaruhi kelancaran kredit serta menganalisis tingkat kesehatan dan peramalan keuangan Amartha Microfinance. Metode analisis data penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan teknik wawancara serta analisis faktor, analisis rasio, analisis tren dan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kunci utama pengelolaan penyaluran kredit adalah proses pembentukan kelompok yang dilakukan sendiri oleh anggota, sistem tanggung renteng selalu berjalan, disiplin kehadiran dan angsuran zero tollerant. Faktor SDM yang memengaruhi kelancaran kredit adalah aspek moral hazards dan morale hazards masing-masing sebesar 75,1%, sedangkan faktor anggota kelompok nasabah yang memengaruhi kelancaran kredit adalah aspek capital sebesar 64,3%, aspek capacity 52,2% dan aspek character 50,2%. Rasio likuiditas dan solvabilitas berada pada kondisi sehat, peramalan rasio likuiditas dan solvabilitas cenderung menurun.
Estimasi Bullish dan Bearish dengan Model Perpindahan Markov dan Risiko Sistematis (beta) dengan Model Penilaian Modal Sharpe dalam Investasi Saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia, Tahun 2011 - 2016 Respati, Prima; Purwanto, Budi; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar
Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi Vol. 8 No. 3 (2017): Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (652.426 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jmo.v8i3.22471

Abstract

ABSTRACTVarious research including Panggabean (2010) and Usman (2016) show that the long-term trend of Indonesia's capital market is on an uptrend, marked by more bullish periods and longer duration than bearish; and the development determined by rising rates of return rather than interest rates and exchange rates (Defrizal et al, 2015). However, the research has not determined yet whether there are any difference risks in bullish and bearish conditions, especially for systematic or market risk. This study aims to 1) identify the bullish and bearish segmentation period using the Markov Switching Model, and 2) measure systematic risk using the capital assets pricing model (CAPM) with the Sharpe beta indicator. Using the composite stock price index (JCI) and trading data from TICMI (The Indonesia Capital Market Institute) period 2011-2016, consists of 560 issuers, it was found that there were 10 segments that could be identified as 5 bullish periods for 30 weeks , and 5 bearish periods for 8 weeks. Other finding indicates that the probability of switching from bullish to bearish is 3.33% and from bearish to bullish is 12.14%. That means there are positive sentiments that the market tends to be bullish rather than vice versa. The result of beta or systematic risk identification indicates that during bullish and bearish period the market proved to be different risk. Other interesting findings, in both these two different conditions there are negative betas exist that still gives a positive yield. ABSTRAKBerbagai riset termasuk Panggabean (2010) dan Usman (2016) menunjukkan bahwa kecenderungan jangka panjang pasar modal Indonesia berada pada kecenderungan naik (uptrend), ditandai dengan periode bullish lebih banyak, dan durasi lebih panjang, daripada bearish.  Perkembangan perkembangan itu dipicu oleh kenaikan tingkat imbalan, alih-alih suku bunga dan nilai tukar (Defrizal et al 2015). Namun riset-riset tersebut tidak mengidentifikasi eksistensi kondisi bullish dan bearish dan berdampak perbedaan risiko, terutama risiko sistematis atau risiko pasar, kecuali mengasumsikan saja keberadaannya.  Penelitian ini bertujuan 1) mengidentifikasi segmentasi periode bullish dan bearish dengan menggunakan model perpindahan Markov (Markov Switching), dan mengukur risiko sistematis menggunakan model penilaian modal (capital assets pricing model, CAPM) dengan indikator beta Sharpe.  Menggunakan data indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) serta data perdagangan bersumber dari TICMI (The Indonesia Capital Market Institute) periode 2011-2016 yang mencakup 560 emiten, diperoleh hasil bahwa dalam periode tersebut terdapat 10 segmen yang dapat diidentifikasi sebagai 5 periode bullish selama 30 pekan, dan 5 periode bearish selama 8 pekan.  Temuan lain menunjukkan bahwa peluang perpindahan dari kondisi bullish ke bearish sebesar 3,33% dan dari kondisi bearish ke bullish sebesar 12,14%. Artinya terdapat sentimen positif bahwa pasar cenderung menjadi bullish daripada sebaliknya.  Hasil identifikasi risiko sistematis menunjukkan, berbeda dengan konsep dasar CAPM, bahwa beta pada periode bullish dan bearish tidak sama.  Temuan menarik lainnya, pada kedua kondisi tersebut terdapat beta negatif yang dapat memberikan tingat imbalan positif.
Pengaruh Arus Kas Terhadap Profitabilitas dan Kinerja Saham Emiten Kompas 100 di Bursa Efek Indonesia Sitepu, Samsudin; Purwanto, Budi; Irwanto, Abdul Kohar
Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi Vol. 8 No. 3 (2017): Jurnal Manajemen dan Organisasi
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (490.474 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jmo.v8i3.22472

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn carrying out its activities, the company needs funds or capital originating from internal and external. Source of internal funds derived from capital contributions owner while external funding sources can be obtained through the sale of shares to the public in the capital market. Important information about a company's cash flow is very useful for users of financial statements as a basis for assessing the company's ability to generate cash and cash equivalents, as well as a basis for assessing how the company uses cash flow. Furthermore, this study aimed to analyze the effect of cash flows to profitability and stock performance. Using SEM-PLS, the study was used 51 of 100 enterprises listed on Compas 100 that have met the criteria such as manufacturing companies listed on the IDX during the period 2013 to 2016, the company has never been delisted during the observation period, companies that publish the financial statements in rupiah currency and the company has a complete datas on the financial statements during the period of observation. Variables used in this study was changes in operating cash flow, changes in cash flow investments, changes in cash flow funding, return on asset, return on equity, net profit margin, changes of stock performence, Earning per Share, and Price Earning Ratio.  Furthermore, SEM’s test results found that cash flows has positively significant influence profitability and performance stock, profitability has positively significant influence performance stock. These findings implied that investors need to consider the enterprise cash flows and profitability analysis, before deciding to make investment in order to earn maximum and poisitive revenue.ABSTRAKDalam menjalankan kegiatannya, perusahaan membutuhkan dana atau modal yang berasal dari internal dan eksternal. Sumber dana internal berasal dari setoran modal pemilik sedangkan sumber dana eksternal dapat diperoleh perusahaan melalui penjualan saham kepada masyarakat di pasar modal untuk menjaga arus kas perusahaan. Secara teori informasi penting tentang arus kas suatu perusahaan sangat berguna bagi pemakai laporan keuangan sebagai dasar dalam menilai kemampuan perusahaan dalam menghasilkan kas dan setara kas, juga sebagai dasar untuk menilai penggunaan arus kas di perusahaan tersebut, namun teori ini sering terbantahkan dengan perilaku investor untuk berinvestasi di bursa yang lebih memperhatikan perolehan laba perusahaan dari pada ketersediaan arus kas. Oleh karena itu penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh arus kas terhadap profitabilitas dan kinerja saham.  Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah SEM-PLS, penelitian ini menggunakan sampel 51 perusahaan dari 100 perusahaan yang terdaftar di Kompas 100 yang telah memenuhi kriteria seperti perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama periode 2013 sampai 2016, perusahaan tersebut tidak pernah dihapus dan keluar daftar selama periode pengamatan, perusahaan laporan keuangan disajikan dalam mata uang rupiah demikian juga perusahaan memiliki data secara  lengkap tentang laporan keuangan selama periode pengamatan. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah variabel laten arus kas dengan indikator perubahan arus kas operasi, perubahan arus kas investasi, dan perubahan arus kas pendanaan, variabel laten profitabilitas dengan indikator return on asset, return on equity, net profit margin, dan variabel laten kinerja saham yang digunakan dengan indikator return saham, earning per share, dan price earning ratio. Hasil uji SEM-PLS menghasilkan bahwa arus kas memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap profitabilitas dan kinerja saham, dan profitabilitas berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap kinerja saham. Hasil penelitian ini  menghasilkan dan merekomendasikan kepada calon investor di bursa saham, bahwa sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi sebaiknya perlu mempertimbangkan analisa likuiditas perusahaan dengan arus kas dan analisa kinerja perusahaan dengan profitabilitas, yang kemudian dapat memutuskan untuk melakukan investasi pada perusahaan di Bursa Efek Indonesia guna memperoleh pendapatan yang positif dan maksimal.