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Journal : Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor

FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVAL FORECASTING TO BALI USING CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION Ayu Nikki Asvikarani; I Made Widiartha; Made Agung Raharja
Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor Vol 10 No 4 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Trunojoyo Madura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21107/kursor.v10i4.252

Abstract

Bali has a recognized tourism potential in the world arena. In order to improve the quality and development of the tourism sector in the midst of global competition, it is necessary to formulate appropriate strategies by decision makers such as private parties and government. In support of more accurate decision making, the authors make a system of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Bali Province using Cascade Forward Backpropagation (CFB) method with coverage of Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom which are the top 3 countries with the highest foreign tourist arrival to Bali in that years. Factors used as input in forecasting include the number of visits of foreign tourists the previous year, the population of countries of origin of foreign tourists, Gross Domestic Product at current prices of countries of origin of foreign tourists, and Relative Consumer Price Index Origin of foreign tourists. In this study, optimization of activation function parameters, hidden neurons, and learning rate to obtain forecasting results with the lowest error rate. Forecasting results using the CFB method produces a fairly good accuracy with MAPE range of 6 - 30% where the activation function tanh work better than sigmoid activation function.
Co-Authors Agus Muliantara Agus Tommy Adi Prawira Kusuma Albert Okario Alit Indrawan, I Gusti Ngurah Anak Agung Istri Ngurah Eka Karyawati Anak Agung Istri Ngurah Eka Karyawati Apsari, Made Sri Ayu Ari Mogi, I Komang Aulia Iefan Datya Ayu Nikki Asvikarani Bayu Prasetiyo Bendesa, Gde Agung Mandala Christian Tonyjanto Cokorda Pramartha Cokorda Pramartha Devan Bramantya Dewantara, I Komang Raka Dewi, Ni Putu Anita Gde Agung Mandala Bendesa Gerson Feoh Gst. Ayu Vida Mastrika Giri Gusto Gibeon Ginting Haposan Simangunsong Harta, I Gede Bendesa Aria I Dewa Made Bayu Atmaja Darmawan, I Dewa Made Bayu I Gede Acintia Udayana I Gede Arta Wibawa I Gede Santi Astawa I Gede Surya Rahayuda I Gusti Agung Ayu Istri Lestari I Gusti Bgs Darmika Putra I Gusti Ngurah Anom Cahyadi Putra I Gusti Ngurah Bagus Arimbawa I Kadek Gowinda I Ketut Gede Suhartana I Ketut Tangkas Agus Sucita I Komang Agus Ari Negara I Komang Ari Mogi I Komang Dwiprayoga I Komang Widia Pratama I Komang Yosua Triantara I Made Ari Madya Santosa I Made Satria Bimantara I Made Teja Geni Astra I Made Widiartha I Made Widiartha I Nyoman Adiputra I Putu Gede Adiatmika I Putu Gede Hendra Suputra I Putu Gede Maysa Putra I Putu Risky Adi Sanjaya I Putu Satria Dharma Wibawa I Putu Sedana Wijaya I WAYAN SANTIYASA I Wayan Supriana I Wayan Supriana Supriana Ida Ayu Gde Suwiprabayanti Putra Ida Ayu Nyoman Yuliastuti Ida Bagus Gede Dwidasmara Ida Bagus Gede Sarasvananda Ida Bagus Made Mahendra IM Suyana Utama Indra Budi Trisno Jeremi Herodian Abednigo Juliana, Ni Komang Ayu Kadek Andre Suryana Kadek Belvanatha Gargita Satwikananda Kadek Dwitya Adhi Pradyto Kameliya Putri Komang Dean Ananda Komang Dean Nanda Komang Indra Pradnya Lalu Muhamad Waisul Kuroni Made Dwiki Budi Laksana Made Edy Septian Santosa Mas, I Made Treshnanda Nararia Ningrat, Putu Vidi Nesa Padmawati Ngurah Agus Sanjaya ER Ngurah Kelvin Febryanta Lila Ananda Ni Kadek Ayu Fitriandayani Ni Komang Ayu Juliana Ni Luh Komang Indira Pramesti Ni Luh Putu Ayu Siwastuti Cayadewi Ni Made Ayu Suandewi Ni Made Rai Nirmala Santhi Ni Putu Anita Dewi Ni Putu Dian Kartika Sari Ni Putu Yeni Astiti Ningsih, Tri Adi Nusan Bagus Wibisana Pradyto, Kadek Dwitya Adhi Putra, IGN Anom Cahyadi Putri Noviyanti Putri, Kameliya Putu Bagus Dio Pranata Putu Ode Irfan Ardika Putu Vidi Nararia Ningrat Putu Wida Gunawan Radhitya, Made Leo Simangunsong, Haposan Siwastuti Cayadewi, Ni Luh Putu Ayu Suryana, Kadek Andre Susy Purnawati T, Ronaldito Juan Bantaras Utari, Ni Nyoman Grisyana Wesnawa, Pande Nyoman Weda Wijayakusuma, I Gusti Ngurah Lanang Yoga, Bhaskara Budi Yohanes Kristianto Kristianto