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All Journal Jurnal Akuntansi Multiparadigma TIJAB (The International Journal of Applied Business) STI Policy and Management Journal Darmabakti Cendekia: Journal of Community Service and Engagements Akuntansi : Jurnal Akuntansi Integratif Biomolecular and Health Science Journal Abdimas: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Universitas Merdeka Malang
Nurul, Mochammad
Department Of Business, Faculty Of Vocational Studies, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya
Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Immunology & microbiology Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Public Health Social Sciences

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Determinants of Economic Growth in Indonesia: Evidence from an ARDL Bounds Test Mochammad Nurul; Shemelis Kebede Hundie
TIJAB (The International Journal of Applied Business) Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): MARCH 2026
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/tijab.v10.I1.2026.72689

Abstract

Background: Over the past five decades, Indonesia's economic development has been influenced by rapid growth and recurring structural challenges. Analyzing the factors that determined GDP during this period can provide insights into sustainable economic policy. Objective: This study examines the primary factors that have influenced Indonesia's economic growth from 1970 to 2021. The study focuses on international trade, population dynamics, health outcomes, and urbanization. Methods: We apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to time-series data from the World Development Indicator (WDI). We test for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test in GRETL, and we perform ARDL estimation, including cointegration and short- and long-term dynamic relationships, in EViews. Results: Inflation, population growth, urbanization, and the dependency ratio negatively impact GDP. Meanwhile, exports (coefficient = 0.242) and air passenger traffic (coefficient = 0.190) positively impact long-term growth. Short-term dynamics reveal delayed adjustments, with the system approaching equilibrium at a rate of 65.4% per period. Diagnostic tests confirm the model's robustness, supporting its use in policy planning and forecasting. Keywords: ARDL model, economic growth, Indonesia, time-series analysis, urbanization
Co-Authors Alief, Jeffits Khusnu Arizendy Dewi Fortuna Astri Dewayani Chen, Yanning Damayanti, Aurellia Nydia Eriani, Izmi Dwira Ervianty, Rizka Miladiah Ferdinandus, Euvanggelia Dwilda Firdah, Diana Aulia Gagas Gayuh Aji, Gagas Gayuh Hamidah, Hamidah Indah Fahmiyah Indri Nurisa Arda Rini Isnalita Nanda Rachmad Putra Gofur Nirwana Santy, Afrisa Noorlailie Soewarno Putri Marta Linduwati Rahmawati, Laily Agustina Rizki Putra Prastio Rodik Wahyu Indrawan Rosyidiana, Riska Nur Shafi Wijdan Kurniawan Shemelis Kebede Hundie Siti Khaerunnisa Sofiah, Amila Sriani, Dewi Subekti , Gemelthree Ardhiatus Wahyu Firmandani Wibisono, Eristian Yankel Sena