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A PSO-Optimized Stacking Ensemble with Hybrid SMOTE-NC and Tomek Links for Bid-Based Winning Prediction in Procurement Projects Handoko, Kokoh; Purnomo, Agus; Mulyati, Erna
INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): February
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Bengkalis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35314/dft7w786

Abstract

This research aims to establish a classification model for the prediction of procurement winning outcomes based on bid value and owner cost estimation data. The main challenge in procurement analysis lies in severe class imbalance and complex non-linear relationships among pricing and procurement attributes. The research object utilizes procurement tender data from PT Pos Indonesia, including project owner, owner cost estimation, bid value, and procurement method. The proposed approach integrates hybrid SMOTE and Tomek links for class balancing, regulation-driven feature engineering, and a stacking ensemble model optimized using particle swarm optimization. The stacking framework combines Random Forest, Extra Trees, and Gradient Boosting as base learners. The experimental evaluation demonstrates that the proposed approach delivers the strongest performance, achieving an AUC of 0.92, an accuracy of 0.89, and an F1-Macro of 0.81, thereby surpassing all individual classifiers and homogeneous ensemble methods considered in this study. This study concludes that the hybrid optimization-based ensemble approach is effective for improving procurement winning prediction accuracy and provides a reliable decision-support tool for data-driven and regulation-compliant procurement processes.
Determinants of Air Logistics Service Quality and Their Implications for the Performance of Air Export Companies in Bali Fitri, I Gusti Agung Candra Maha; Maniah, Maniah; Mulyati, Erna
Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) Vol 9 No 1 (2026): Sharia Economics
Publisher : Universitas KH. Abdul Chalim Mojokerto

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31538/iijse.v9i1.9605

Abstract

Globalization and international trade require fast and efficient logistics systems, with air logistics playing a strategic role in handling high-value and time-sensitive commodities. In Indonesia, particularly Bali as a major air export hub, heavy reliance on air transportation has not been matched by improvements in logistics service quality and efficiency, as reflected in high costs, regulatory complexity, limited facilities, and weak customer relationships. This study examines the effects of capabilities, operational performance, regulations, customer relationships, and costs on air logistics service quality and their implications for the performance of air export firms in Bali. A confirmatory quantitative approach using SEM-PLS was applied to data from 245 respondents. The findings show that these factors significantly influence air logistics service quality, which in turn positively affects firm performance and serves as a mediating variable. These results highlight the strategic importance of service quality in enhancing air export competitiveness.
Building Superior Supplier Performance: The Mediating Role of Supplier Satisfaction in the Influence of Client Trust, Contractual Justice, and Payment Reliability Tokoh Oktaviano, Dewa; Purnomo, Agus; Mulyati, Erna
Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting (March-April 2
Publisher : Dinasti Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.38035/dijefa.v7i1.6380

Abstract

The Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) industry in the energy sector is highly dependent on supplier performance. However, PT Torishima Services Indonesia (TSI) faces a supplier performance gap, with actual achievements reaching only 84.75% against a >95% target. This study aims to examine and analyze the influence of Client Trust, Contractual Justice, and Payment Reliability on Supplier Performance, with Supplier Satisfaction acting as a mediating variable. A quantitative explanatory survey method was employed, collecting data from a sample of 128 active suppliers of PT TSI, which was subsequently analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling Partial Least Squares (SEM PLS).Quantitative results demonstrate that client trust (β = 0.091, p < 0.05), contractual justice (β = 0.173, p < 0.05), and payment reliability (β = 0.133, p < 0.05) have a direct, positive, and significant effect on supplier performance. These independent variables also strongly predict supplier satisfaction, with contractual justice emerging as the strongest predictor (β = 0.375, p < 0.05), followed by trust (β = 0.340, p < 0.05) and payment (β = 0.296, p < 0.05). Supplier satisfaction itself exerts a dominant positive influence on performance (β = 0.614, p < 0.05). Furthermore, mediation testing confirms that supplier satisfaction significantly mediates the effects of client trust (β = 0.209, p < 0.05), contractual justice (β = 0.230, p < 0.05), and payment reliability (β = 0.182, p < 0.05) on supplier performance . Theoretically, this study contributes to reinforcing relational governance and supplier relationship management theories by proposing a comprehensive causal model. Practically, management is recommended to implement transparent contractual fairness principles and simplify payment administration procedures to drive sustainable supplier satisfaction and performance. This research offers novelty by simultaneously integrating relational, structural, and financial governance dimensions into a single comprehensive mediation framework within the specific, high risk context of the energy MRO industry, which has not been previously explored.