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All Journal FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Xplore: Journal of Statistics Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Aam Alamudi
Department Of Statistics, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Comparison Between SARIMA and DeepAR with Optuna Hyperparameter Optimization for Estimating Rice Production Data in Indonesia Muhammad Farhan Zahid; Anwar Fitrianto; Pika Silvianti; Aam Alamudi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p95-111

Abstract

Forecast is a prediction of future events that had taken a significant role in our society especially when facing time-sensitive issues like food availability. Food is a critical aspect in ensuring people's welfare, especially in a country like Indonesia with a large population. Availability and access to rice are a vital need for the people of Indonesia. Rice is not only the main source of carbohydrates, but also has a central role in the cultural and social aspects of Indonesian society. Forecasting can be a strategy to anticipate fluctuations in food demand and supply. Forecasting can be an important instrument for the government and stakeholders to make the right and effective decisions. The growing period of rice which is heavily influenced by seasonality makes DeepAR and SARIMA techniques a good solution to solve this problem. Both methods offer the ability to address features in rice production such as trends, seasonality, and anomaly effects. This study demonstrates that DeepAR, especially when optimized with Optuna, outperforms SARIMA in forecasting rice production in Indonesia, as evidenced by superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).
Co-Authors . Aunuddin Agus M Soleh Agus M Soleh Agus Soleh Akmala Firdausi Anik Djuraidah Aulia Dwi Oktavia Ayoe Indria Winuri Azira Irawan Bagus Sartono Budi Susetyo Dhika Firmansyah Dian Kusumaningrum Else Virdiani Erlinda Widya Widjanarko Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitrianto, Anwar Hanifatun Nufusia Hiola, Yani Prihantini Indahwati Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA Iqbal Hanif Kusman Sadik Mahdiyah Riaesnianda Maya Deanti Mega Maulina Muhammad Farhan Zahid Nadhif Nursyahban Ni Kadek Manik Dewantari Nisa Nur Aisyah Pika Silvianti Pika Silvianti Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Rahma Anisa Resty Fanny Riansyah, Boy Silmi Annisa Rizki Manaf Tania Amalia Darsono Utami Dyah Syafitri Yasmin Erika Faridhan Yenni Angraini