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IMPACT OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS SHOCK AGAINST FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN BANK MUAMALAT INDONESIA: TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARE METHOD M. Fauzan; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): June
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i3.1630

Abstract

Bank Muamalat Indonesia is able to maintain the overall stability of its financial system; however, the bank's distress level ranges from 0.10 to 0.65, and a score below 1.81 indicates a high risk of bankruptcy. The purpose of this research is to determine the simultaneous relationship between the financial performance and financial distress level of Bank Muamalat Indonesia. This research uses secondary data from 2010 to 2023, utilizing quarterly data. The analysis employs a quantitative method with simultaneous equation techniques using the Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) method. Based on the simultaneous test results, there is a simultaneous relationship between the financial performance model and financial distress, which is identified as over-identified. In the Financial Performance (ROA) equation model, financial distress has a significant negative effect, whereas CAR and NPF are not significant. However, FDR has a significant positive effect. In the Financial Distress (Z-Score) model, NPF and FDR have a significant impact, while Financial Performance (ROA) and economic growth have a significant negative impact. The implication is the importance of financial risk management and the financial health of banks. Recommendations include enhanced supervision and financial risk management, as well as policies that support stable economic growth.
MACRO ECONOMIC REVIEW OF JA KARTA ISLAMIC INDEX STOCK RETURNS Windari; Dede Ruslan; M. Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1799

Abstract

This study tries to examine the problem of whether there is macroeconomic influence (inflation, Indonesian interest rates) on JII stock returns on the IDX. The data used in this study is secondary data using combined time series data (time period) with Cross Section data (8 selected companies) based on the annual financial statements of shares that are incorporated in the JII from 2018-2023. The results of both simultaneous and partial data processing show that Macroeconomics (inflation and Indonesian interest rates) affect stock returns with a significance level below 0.05. Stocks of companies classified in the Jakarta Islamic Index are those whose types, products, services provided, contracts, and management methods do not contradict Sharia principles. Similarly, regarding profit-sharing, it must also comply with Sharia principles, devoid of interest elements, as interest falls under usury, and activities involving usury are prohibited in the Sharia capital market in accordance with the fatwa decision of the National Sharia Council No: 40/DSN-MUI/X/2003.
ARIMA MODELS IN PREDICTING INDONESIAN ISLAMIC BANK PROFITABILITY Muhammad Hakim Sitompul; T. Rizkan Polem; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1817

Abstract

This study aims to predict the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, proxied by the ROA ratio. The data analysis used is ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), which is an appropriate approach for analyzing time series data such as the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia over the period 2010-2023. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,12) model is the best in predicting the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia. This is because the ARIMA (1,1,2) model demonstrates white noise characteristics and produces low AIC and SC values as well as significant parameters, thus it is selected for analysis. Using the ARIMA (1,1,2) model, profitability estimation shows RMSE values of 0.39 and MAE values of 0.32, indicating a low error rate. The prediction shows a significant decline in the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, although fluctuations remain. Therefore, the ARIMA (1,1,2) model proves to be effective in predicting the profitability of Bank Muamalat Indonesia with a low error rate, despite the prediction results showing a downward trend.
VAR ANALYSIS UNLEASHED: THE VOLATILE IMPACT OF NON-PERFORMING FINANCING ON ISLAMIC BANK PROFITABILITY IN INDONESIA Harry Irawan; Dede Ruslan; Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 4 No. 4 (2024): August
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54443/ijebas.v4i4.1818

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse and understand the impact of Non-Performing Financing (NPF) volatility on the profitability of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia. This study uses the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach. The results show a strong interdependence between NPF and ROA in Islamic banks in Indonesia. Although in the short term NPF has a negative impact on ROA, in the long term NPF has a positive effect. Variance decomposition indicates that these two variables influence each other and their contribution increases over time. These findings are important for the management of Islamic banks to understand how fluctuations in NPF can affect the financial performance of banks and vice versa, and to make effective strategic decisions in risk management and profitability.