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All Journal Statistika JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Pelita Eksakta MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Journal of Mathematics UNP
Media Rosha
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics UNP

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Penerapan Model ARCH dan GARCH dalam Peramalan Jumlah Penumpang Datang di Bandara Internasional Minangkabau Wulandari, Azizah; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 9, No 1 (2024): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v9i1.15152

Abstract

Air transport is the first choice for people who travel long distances. Forecasting is important in the decision-making process, especially for air transportation which can provide information on the increase and decrease in passengers that fluctuate. To describe the fluctuation of a data that changes rapidly over time results in the variance of error changing over time, so the data is estimated to be heteroscedasticity. ARCH and GARCH methods are useful for modeling heteroscedasticity elements in data. The following research includes applied research, using data on the number of passengers arriving on airplanes in 2018 –2022. From the results of the study, the best model according to the lowest AIC value was obtained the GARCH model (1.2). The variance equation in the GARCH model (1,2) is . Then using the GARCH model (1.2), forecasting was carried out in 2018 – 2022, which was as many as 60 data. From the forecasting results obtained the number of passengers came the aircraft.
Model Matematika Free Throw pada Permainan Bola Basket Saputra, Yogi Trio; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 8, No 3 (2023): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v8i3.14921

Abstract

In basketball, basic skills such as Passing, Dribbling, Rebound, and Shooting are crucial. Shooting includes various techniques like one hand set shoot, jump shot, lay up, hook shot, runner, three-point shot, and free throw. A free throw is an unguarded shot that awards one point if successful. One of the factors that affects the success of executing a free throw is understanding the physics principles involved, such as parabolic motion, Magnus effect, gravitational force, and friction when the ball is in the air. During a free throw, the ball moves in three dimensions (3D). This applied research utilized secondary data and the numerical method of Runge-Kutta to determine the optimal trajectory of the ball during a free throw. The results indicate that an initial velocity of 10 m/s with a spin frequency of 3 rot/s and a shooting angle of 30°, as well as a shooting angle of 48° with a spin frequency of 3 rot/s and an initial velocity of 8 m/s, provide the best trajectory for scoring points.
Statistical Quality Control pada Produk Air Minum dalam Kemasan Merek X di CV XYZ Diantami, Melati; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 8, No 4 (2023): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v8i4.14454

Abstract

Bottled water is one alternative that can be used to meet the clean water needs in society. X brand of bottled water is one of the brands circulating in West Sumatra. Based on the quality requirements of SNI 01-3553-2015, pH and the amound of dissolved subtances are some aspects that can cause some diseases if they do not meet the set standards. In addition, the volume of water in each package must be in accordance with what is stated on the package. This study aims to determine the quality of bottled water products using the  and  control charts in statistical quality control. The research sample was obtained from CV XYZ in Padang. The research instrument used measurement tools such as measuring glasses, dropper, digital pH meter and TDS meters. The results showed that all variables were not controlled based on the  and  control charts.
Optimasi Jumlah dan Lokasi Tempat Perhentian Bus (TPB) Trans Padang Koridor V dengan Model Set Covering Problem Sari, Engla Diva; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 8, No 3 (2023): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v8i3.14974

Abstract

Trans Padang is a bus managed by the Padang City government since 2014. One of the corridors on the Trans Padang bus is corridor V uses a Bus Stop. However, the existence of TPB Trans Padang corridor V is not optimal. The purpose of this research is to determine the optimal number and location of TPB is to use The Set Covering Problem Model. The data sought is the location where there may be crowds. Then the data is validated using the Cochran Q-Test so that the data becomes a point of request. Next, a set of cover problem will be made and will be solved with the Enumerasi Implicit method. The results of processing using the Enumersi Implicit method obtained that the optimal TPB was 26 TPB, with the addition of TPB locations in 10 locations, is RSU Bunda BMC Padang, Simpang Sawahan, Simpang Lubeg, Erick Minimarket, Pitameh Garden, Budiman Cengkeh, Hoya Cengkeh, MR DIY Banda Buek, Dalas Swalayan, dan MTS AL FATAH.
Model Matematika SEIRS-SEI Penyebaran Penyakit Leptospirosis dengan Pengaruh Curah Hujan Arsiyandi, Ashraff; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 9, No 2 (2024): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v9i2.14609

Abstract

Leptospirosis is an illness spread from animals to humans brought on by Leptospira sp. This illness is widespread and can be found anywhere there is human habitation, although it is notably prevalent in the rainy Southeast Asian countries. The goal of this modelling is to analyse the results of mathematical models of the spread of leptospirosis illness under the effect of rainfall and to understand the implications of those results. This study offers a theoretical analysis of a fundamental problem in epidemiology: the spread of leptospirosis in response to rainfall. This study shows that rainfall has a significant impact on leptospirosis rates. The analysis of fundamental reproductive value demonstrates this effect, showing that an increase in rainfall leads to an epidemic of leptospirosis.
Pemodelan Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Toksoplasmosis dengan Pengaruh Vektor Risman, Junero; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 7, No 4 (2022): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v7i4.13882

Abstract

Toxoplasmosis is a sickness as a result of the parasite Toxoplasma gondii, which can attack humans and animals, especially cats. The reason for this investigation is to discover the model, the results of model analysis, and an interpretation of the results of a mathematical model analysis of the spread toxoplasmosis by vector effects. The strategies used on this take a look at are descriptive. A mathematical model of the spread toxoplasmosis by vector influence takes the form of a nonlinear system of equations consisting of eight nonlinear equations. Analysis results of a mathematical model with two fixed points, a disease-free fixed point and a diseased fixed point. Each is asymptotically stable, subject to several conditions. The resulting baseline reproductive numbers indicate that the disease is becoming epidemic as the horizontal transmission rate and transmission rate from the latent population to the infected population within the vector increase.
Pemodelan Sistem Antrian Multiserver di Kantor Samsat Kota Padang berdasarkan Aspiration Level Putri, Anisa Dianda; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 9, No 1 (2024): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v9i1.15066

Abstract

Queues in everyday life are very common. Situations like this are often found in public service facilities, one of which is the Padang City SAMSAT Office. The research objective was tovdetermine the optimal queuing system model based on the aspiration level. This researchvisvan applied research withvprimary datavtypes. Thevdata analysisvtechnique usedvisvcalculating the average time between arrivals and the average service time, testing the suitability of the distribution with the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, then analyzed using the queuing model. The results showed that based on the aspiration level, the optimal queuing system model on Mondays, Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays at the Padang City SAMSAT Office was (M/M/9):(GD/∞/∞). The results of thevaspiration level decisions on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with thevadditionvofvthe numbervofvofficersvto 10 people show that the percentage of unemployed officers is 18.5% of their working time and the average time taxpayers wait in the system is approximately 25.58 minutes.
Estimasi Value At Risk (VaR) Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Ke Sumatera Barat Maulani, Fiqrah; Rosha, Media
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 7, No 4 (2022): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v7i4.13991

Abstract

West Sumatra Province  has become one of the destinations for foreign tourists to travel. There are many types of tourism in West Sumatra, ranging from cultural tourism, sports tourism, religious tourism, and culinary tourism. Because of this existing tourism potential, it is necessary to estimate the maximum loss from tourist visit revenue. One of the risk management for tourism budget losses is by using the Value at Risk method. Value at Risk , namely estimation of the biggest potential loss for a certain period with a certain level of confidence and normal market conditions. Estimation VaR is carried out for forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits from Jan-Jun 2022 with α=5%. The budget issued by the West Sumatra Provincial Office for tourism development is IDR. 209.481.220,00. Then obtained VaR value of  IDR.  112.801.838.04. This means that the biggest loss opportunity borne by the Provincial Government of West Sumatra in the next month from foreign tourist visits to West Sumatra is IDR 112,801,838.04 against a value of IDR 872,400,000.00.
Co-Authors Ade Silvia, Ade Aisyah Ali Asmar Annisa Altas Arnellis Arnellis Arsiyandi, Ashraff Astuti, Shindy Widya Azhura, Kirana Cahyani, Alda Wahyu Regita Defri Ahmad Diana Leris Diantami, Melati Dramutia, Alfika Eli Yuliza Elita Zusti Jamaan Fadilah, Dinda Mailizar Mailizar Maulani, Fiqrah Nonong Amalita Nur Suci Oktavia, Nanda Putra, Kevin Pramana Putri, Anisa Dianda Rahma Dhiyatri, Suci raudatul jannah Riry Sriningsih Risman, Junero Saddam Al Aziz Saputra, Yogi Trio Sari, Engla Diva Syafriandi Syafriandi Tri Hafsari, Trisa Wulandari, Azizah Yongki Sukma Zulfia, Zulfia