<![CDATA[Latar belakang: Tahun 2022, tingkat positif di Jawa Tengah 40,9% melampaui ambang batas WHO (< 5%). COVID-19 menunjukkan pola yang kompleks oleh berbagai variabel seperti, sosial pelayanan kesehatan, dan lingkungan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keterkaitan antara faktor sosial, pelayanan kesehatan, dan lingkungan terhadap distribusi spasial tingkat kerentanan kasus COVID-19 di Provinsi Jawa Tengah.Metode: Penelitian kuantitatif dengan desain ekologi eksploratori. Unit analisis 35 kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah. Data agregat tahun 2022 dengan variabel dependen jumlah kumulatif kasus COVID-19. Variabel independen faktor sosial (jumlah penduduk, jumlah penduduk miskin, tingkat pengangguran, tingkat pendidikan penduduk usia >15 tahun, indeks pembangunan manusia (IPM), jumlah turis domestik, Jumlah turis mancanegara), faktor pelayanan kesehatan (jumlah tenaga kesehatan, jumlah tenaga sanitasi lingkungan, akses terhadap sanitasi layak, dan akses terhadap air minum layak). faktor lingkungan (curah hujan rata-rata, kelembapan udara, suhu rata-rata, serta kecepatan angin luas wilayah, serta elevasi rata-rata wilayah). Data diperoleh dari instansi nasional (BPS dan Dinkes Provinsi Jawa Tengah) dan internasional (NASA). Dianalisis menggunakan pemodelan regresi Ordinary Least Squares dengan teknik stepwise backward elimination serta validasi uji asumsi klasik dan autokorelasi spasial. Hasil Pemodelan visualisasikan dengan bentuk peta distribusi tingkat kerentanan berbasis kuartil.Hasil: Variabel yang berasosiasi dengan kasus COVID-19 adalah jumlah penduduk (B = 0,0164), jumlah penduduk miskin (B = -0,0951), jumlah wisatawan domestik (B = 0,0047), jumlah tenaga kesehatan (B = 3,3453), dan suhu rata-rata (B = -2638,61) dengan kekuatan prediktif model (R² = 0,9266), Distribusi spasial menunjukan wilayah dengan tingkat kerentanan sangat tinggi seperti Kota dan Kabupaten Semarang, Kota Surakarta, Kabupaten Magelang, Kabupaten Klaten, Kabupaten Banyumas dan Kabupaten Banjarnegara.Simpulan: Faktor sosial (jumlah penduduk, jumlah penduduk miskin, wisatawan domestik), Faktor Pelayanan Kesehatan (jumlah tenaga kesehatan), dan Lingkungan (suhu rata-rata) merupakan determinan signifikan dengan kasus COVID-19 Jawa Tengah. Distribusi spasial menunjukan 6 wilayah di jawa tengah memiliki tingkat kerentanan Sangat tinggi. ABSTRACT Title: Spatial Analysis of Social, Health Service, and Environmental Factors Associated with COVID-19 Cases in Central JavaBackground: In 2022, the positivity rate in Central Java reached 40.9%, surpassing the WHO threshold (<5%). COVID-19 displays a complex pattern driven by various variables, including social conditions, healthcare services, and environmental factors. This study aims to analyze the association of social conditions, healthcare services, and environmental factors with the spatial distribution of COVID-19 vulnerability in Central Java Province.Method: This quantitative study employed an exploratory ecological design. The analytical units comprised the 35 regencies and cities of Central Java. The study used aggregated 2022 data and set the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases as the dependent variable. Independent variables included social factors (total population, number of people in poverty, unemployment rate, education level of the population aged over 15 years, Human Development Index (HDI), number of domestic tourists, and number of international tourists); healthcare service factors (number of healthcare workers, number of environmental sanitation personnel, access to adequate sanitation, and access to safe drinking water); and environmental factors (mean rainfall, humidity, average temperature, wind speed, territorial area, and mean elevation). The study obtained data from national agencies (Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Provincial Health Office of Central Java ) and international sources (NASA). The study analyzed the data using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with backward stepwise elimination and validated the classical OLS assumptions and spatial autocorrelation. The study visualized the modeling results as quartile-based maps showing the spatial distribution of vulnerability.Result: Variables associated with COVID-19 cases were total population (B = 0.0164), number of people living in poverty (B = -0.0951), number of domestic tourists (B = 0.0047), number of healthcare workers (B = 3.3453), and mean temperature (B = -2638.61). The model exhibited strong predictive power (R² = 0.9266). Spatial distribution showed areas with very high vulnerability, including Semarang City and Semarang Regency, Surakarta City, Magelang Regency, Klaten Regency, Banyumas Regency, and Banjarnegara Regency.Conclusion: Social factors (total population, number of people living in poverty, and number of domestic tourists), the healthcare service factor (number of healthcare workers), and the environmental factor (mean temperature) were significant determinants of COVID-19 cases in Central Java. Spatial analysis identified six areas in Central Java with very high vulnerability.]]>
