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All Journal Jurnal Matematika E-Jurnal Matematika Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Sosial Dinasti International Journal of Education Management and Social Science Jurnal Cahaya Mandalika JOURNAL SCIENTIFIC OF MANDALIKA (JSM)
I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA
Mathematics Department, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, Udayana University
Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation Other

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APLIKASI PEMODELAN FUZZY PADA INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI PROVINSI BALI Sukarsa, I Komang Gde; Kencana, I Putu Eka N.
Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA 2015: PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL MIPA UNDIKSHA 2015
Publisher : Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Sebagian besar data indikator makroekonomi merupakan data deret waktu yang umumnya diprediksi menggunakan model runtun waktu yang dikelompokkan ke dalam kelas pemodelan stokastik atau menggunakan model-model pemulus. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk melihat kemampuan pemodelan fuzzy yang tergolong ke dalam soft modeling pada kasus data makroekonomi Provinsi Bali pada periode tahun 1990 2013. Indikator makroekonomi yang diprediksi adalah Pendapatan Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), Konsumsi, Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto (PMTDB), dan Ekspor Neto Provinsi Bali pada periode tersebut. Kelas pemodelan fuzzy yang digunakan adalah model Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) orde satu dengan fungsi keanggotaan yang dipilih adalah fungsi keanggotaan segitiga fuzzy (fuzzy triangular number). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model FTS memberikan tingkat keakurasian prediksi yang tinggi, terlihat dari nilai Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER) yang rendah. Nilai-nilai AFER untuk prediksi out-of-sample dari indikator PDRB, Konsumsi, dan PMTDB masing-masing sebesar 0,20 persen; 2,15 persen; dan 1,08 persen. Komparasi model FTS dalam memprediksi PDRB dengan formula makroekonomi untuk menghitung PDRB menunjukkan model FTS mengungguli formula makroekonomi dengan nilai AFER model FTS sebesar 0,20 persen sedangkan formula makroekonomi memberikan nilai AFER sebesar 4,00 persen.Kata kunci: AFER, fuzzy modelling, fuzzy time series, model makroekonomiAbstractMost of macroeconomic indicators are time series data. In general, time series data were predicted by using time series models which are classified into stochastic model or by applying exponential model. This research aimed to elaborate the performance of fuzzy modeling which is grouped into soft modeling in predicting the macroeconomic indicators for period 1990 2013 of Bali Province. The predicted indicators were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumption, Gross Domestic Investment (GDI) and Net Export of Bali Province for that period. We applied first order Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) with membership function had been chosen is Fuzzy Triangular Number (FTN). The result showed FTS model gave high prediction rate, observed from its Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER). The values for GDP, Consumption, and GDI were 0.20 percent, 2.15 percent, and 1.08 percent, respectively. In addition, for out-of-sample forecast of GDP, FTS outperformed classical macroeconomic formula for counting it with AFER as much as 0.20 percent while the formula had 4.00 percent.Keywords: AFER, fuzzy modelling, Fuzzy Time Series, macroeconomic model
Tanggapan Pemilih PemulaTerhadap Caleg Perempuan Pada Pemilu Legislatif (PILEG) 2019 Suciptawati, Ni Luh Putu; Sukarsa, I Komang Gde; Kencana, Eka Nila
Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Sosial Vol 6, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Sosial
Publisher : Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23887/jiis.v6i2.28475

Abstract

Representasi perempuan dalam legislatif sangatlah penting, keberadaan legislator perempuan diharapkan dapat meningkatkan peran perempuan dalam kebijakan publik seperti pengentasan kemiskinan, kemajuan pendidikan, dan dibidang kesehatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat bagaimana persepsi pemilih pemula terhadap partisipasi perempuan dalam pemilihan legislatif 2019. Data penelitian berupa data primer dengan menyebarkan kuesioner kepada 300 responden pemilih pemula di Denpasar dengan menggunakan purposive sampling. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi logistic biner. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dari 300 responden 235 tidak setuju dengan kandidat perempuan, hanya 65 yang memilih kandidat perempuan. Faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap cara berpikir responden dalam memilih caleg adalah pendidikan dan keaktifan dalam berorganisasi.
Tinjauan Dampak Pariwisata di Kawasan Pesisir Pada Dimensi Sosial Budaya Masyarakat Komang Gde Sukarsa; Trisna Darmayanti; Eka N. Kencana
Jurnal Matematika Vol 8 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2018.v08.i01.p96

Abstract

Tourism is a leading sector in developing process of many countries. For Bali, tourism contributes more than 30 percent on the formation of Bali’s Regional Domestic Product. To assure tourism at this island will run in sustainable manner, three aspects have to be considered. This research is aimed to classify the positive as well as the negative effects of socio-cultural dimension arose from tourists activities at coastal area of Badung regency of Bali. A hundred of local community leaders at North Kuta district were selected and their perception regarding effect of tourism on socio-cultural aspect were collected on June – September 2017 and analysed by using factor analysis. Three groups were identified as the positive effects i.e. (a) women empowerment as the economic agents for the family; (b) the increasing of Balinese values; and (c) the raising of community capacity building in developing culture-creative products. Viewed from the burden of cost, we found the potency of increasing the social as well as family conflicts because of different perspectives in viewing tourism.
Indikator Kesejahteraan di Provinsi Bali: Suatu Pendekatan Analisis Biplot I Komang Gde Sukarsa; I G K Gandhiadi
Jurnal Matematika Vol 10 No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2020.v10.i01.p120

Abstract

The goal of this reseach is to get the representation of welfare in Bali province based on the indicators represented by People Development Indexs (PDI). PDI is the indexs is a latent variable that can not be measured like measurement variable, so to measure PDI have to be measure by several indicators. In tgeneral, PDI is measured by three indicators that is a long and Healthy life as the Health Indicators, Education Indicators and decent standard of living as Economic Indicators. In Practice, Health Indicators is measured by mean expectation of life. Mean of long school and expectation of long school are measurement of Education Indicators. Whereas Economic Indicators is represented by purchasing power parity. In Staistics methods, to represent or analize multivariate variable there are many methods can be used. One of the methods is Biplot. In Biplot analysis we can represent information about row matrix and coloum matrix simultaneous. In this cases we can get information about object ( 9 districs or city in Bali) and Welfare Indicators represented by PDIsimultanous. The result of biplot analysis in this research is two dimension graphic that represent Euclid distance of object and correlation of indicators so that we can get information of the grouping of object and the characteristic variables of the certain group.
PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA PROPERTI RESIDENSIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYES PUTU GDE BUDHA WIRYADANA; I WAYAN SUMARJAYA; I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 10 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2021.v10.i02.p324

Abstract

Residential property is a property in the form of building which serves as residence or house. House has function as a place whether to take a rest, to take cover and to get together with family. Residential property price indices (RPPIs) forecasting has aim as a development planning by the developer to avoid shortages or excess of home supplies. This research aims to model and predict the RPPIs using the Bayes method for 2020 to 2021. The data used in this research is the data from RPPIs of Denpasar city from 2012 in the first quarter to 2019 in the fourth quarter. Then, the method which is used is Bayes method with autoregression (AR) model in forecasting RPPIs. Therefore, it obtained mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for forecasting the next one period with () equal to 0,4049416%. For the result of RPPIs forecasting in Denpasar city from 2020 the first quarter to 2021 the fourth quarter has an insignificant increase with an average difference for each quarter increased by 0,3568%.
PENERAPAN METODE GENERALIZED RIDGE REGRESSION DALAM MENGATASI MASALAH MULTIKOLINEARITAS NI KETUT TRI UTAMI; I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 2 No 1 (2013): E-Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2013.v02.i01.p029

Abstract

Ordinary least square is parameter estimation method for linier regression analysis by minimizing residual sum of square. In the presence of multicollinearity, estimators which are unbiased and have a minimum variance can not be generated. Multicollinearity refers to a situation where regressor variables are highly correlated. Generalized Ridge Regression is an alternative method to deal with multicollinearity problem. In Generalized Ridge Regression, different biasing parameters for each regressor variables were added to the least square equation after transform the data to the space of orthogonal regressors. The analysis showed that Generalized Ridge Regression was satisfactory to overcome multicollinearity.
ANALISIS JALUR FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI RISIKO TERKENA PENYAKIT DIABETES MELITUS DOMINGGAS TEO; I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA; I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI; I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2022.v11.i01.p359

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus is a non-contagious disease that causes the increas of death rates in Indonesia. This study aims to determine the causality between Age, Occupation, Cholesterol effects of Age, Occupation, Cholesterol Levels, and Blood Pressure Risk of Diabetes Mellitus (DM). The population in this study were all patients at the Beru Public Health Center, with a sample of 200 patients. The analytical method used in this research is Path Analysis with the help of directly or indirectly. The results showed that age and blood pressure had a direct positive effect on cholesterol levels and blood pressure, and age, cholesterol levels and blood pressure also directly affected the risk of developing DM. Age and occupation also affect the risk of developing DM indirectly.
PEMODELAN JUMLAH KASUS PENYAKIT KUSTA DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR NI MADE SUKMA PERTIWI; I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA; MADE SUSILAWATI
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 9 No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2020.v09.i01.p277

Abstract

Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) is a combination of linear regression models with spatial lag in response variables that consider spatial effects. One problem that considers spatial effects is leprosy cases. This study aims to predict the number of leprosy cases models in East Java Province and the factors that influence it. The type of data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Health Profile of East Java Province in 2017 and the publication of the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) of East Java Province. The results of this study indicate that the SAR model can describe the number of leprosy cases in East Java Province with AIC value is 109,951 and value is 71,93%. The factors that influence the number of leprosy cases are the percentage of healthy houses and the number of health centers in each district/city in East Java Province.
PENERAPAN REGRESI ZERO-INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL (ZINB) UNTUK PENDUGAAN KEMATIAN ANAK BALITA NI MADE SEKARMINI; I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA; I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI
E-Jurnal Matematika Vol 2 No 4 (2013)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2013.v02.i04.p052

Abstract

One method of regression analysis used to analyze the count data is Poisson regression. Poisson regression requires that the mean value equal to the value of variance (equidispersion). However, sometimes the data is going overdispersion  the state variance values ??greater than the mean value. One of the causes overdispersion is the excessive number of zero values ??on the response variable (excess zeros). One method of analysis that can be used on data that had overdispersion due to excess zeros is regression Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). The data that can be analyzed using the ZINB regression is the early childhood mortality in the province of Bali because much of the data is zero. The analysis showed that the data had overdispersion on Poisson regression, so the ZINB regression analysis was used. From the results of the ZINB regression can overcome overdispersion so it was better than the Poisson Regression Model.
ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN PADA LOKET PEMBAYARAN PT. PLN (PERSERO) AREA BALI SELATAN RAYON KUTA NGURAH GDE PRABA MARTHA; KOMANG GDE SUKARSA; I PUTU EKA NILA KENCANA
E-Jurnal Matematika Volume 1, No 1, Tahun 2012
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/MTK.2012.v01.i01.p002

Abstract

The purpose of the analysis of queuing systems is to find out the model and the performance of queuing system was run. The research was conducted at PT. PLN (Persero) South Bali Area Rayon Kuta and the issue raised is about the analysis of queuing systems at the payment counter. Model queue is determined based on the Kendall notation and performance of queuing systems can be determined by calculating the utilization factor. At payment counter, the queuing model used is a model (M/G/4):(GD/?/?). The performance of queuing system at payment counter of PT. PLN (Persero) South Bali Area Rayon Kuta is less effective because each servers was busy on average only between 30% – 50% of working hours so that more time unemployed servers.
Co-Authors ADI PUTRAYASA ALEXANDER JOSEPH RIADI ANAK AGUNG ISTRI AYU PRATAMI Damayanthi, Ni Wayan Rita Desak Putu Eka Nilakusmawati DESAK PUTU PRAMI MEITRIANI DEWA AYU MADE DWI YANTI PURNAMI DIAN PRAMESTI DEWI DIAN RAHMAN Diana Diana DINI AMALIA PUTRI DOMINGGAS TEO DWI HERAYANTHI W. Eka N Kencana EKA N. KENCANA EKA N. KENCANA Eka N. Kencana EVI NOVIYANTARI FATIMAH G. K. GANDHIADI G.K. GANDHIADI Gandhiadi, GK Gandhiadi, I. G. K GEDE ARY PRABHA YOGESSWARA GUSTI AYU MADE ARNA PUTRI HANY DEVITA I GEDE AGUS JIWADIANA I GEDE SEKA SUYOGA I Gusti Ayu Made Srinadi I KETUT PUTRA ADNYANA I MADE ARYA ANTARA I MADE CANDRA SATRIA I MADE DANNY DANANJAYA I PUTU AGUS WIDHIANTARA I PUTU EKA IRAWAN I PUTU EKA N. KENCANA, I PUTU EKA N. I Putu Eka Nila Kencana I Wayan Sumarjaya I WAYAN WIDHI DIRGANTARA IA KOMANG MERIANI IDA AYU MADE SUPARTINI IDA AYU PRASETYA UTHAMI Isabel Divya Georgiana Walewangko KADEK DWI FARMANI Kencana, Eka N Kencana, Eka N. Ketut Jayanegara KOMANG AYU YULIANINGSIH Komang Dharmawan LUH KOMANG MARDIANI Luh Putu Trisna Darmayanti Made Susilawati MOCH. ANJAS A MODANA LOLITA Mohamad Dwi Agus Arianto NADIYA YUVITA RIZKI NGURAH GDE PRABA MARTHA NI GUSTI KETUT TRISNA PRADNYANTARI NI KADEK ARISKA DEWI NI KADEK SETIAWATI NI KETUT TRI UTAMI NI KOMANG AYU SRI CAHYANI NI LUH ARDILA KUSUMAYANTI NI LUH GEDE SINTA ARYATI Ni Luh Putu Suciptawati NI LUH SUKERNI Ni Made Asih NI MADE LASTI LISPANI NI MADE METTA ASTARI Ni Made Santiningsih NI MADE SEKARMINI NI MADE SUKMA PERTIWI NI MADE SUMA FRIDAYANI NI PUTU AYU DINITA TRISNAYANTI NI PUTU JULIANINGSIH NI PUTU NADYA AGUSVIANI NI WAYAN AMANDA DEWI SULISTYANINGSIH NI WAYAN NINING ISMIRANTI NI WAYAN YULIANI NISA HIDAYATI NOVA SARI BARUS NYOMAN GDE PRAJNAWIWEKA RATMASA TARAM PUTU AYU MAZIYYA PUTU EKA SWASTINI PUTU GDE BUDHA WIRYADANA PUTU MIRAH PURNAMA D. PUTU SUSAN PRADAWATI Ratna Sari Widiastuti REYNALDO PANJI WICAKSONO Riadi, Alexander Joseph Safitri, Asa Vira Tjokorda Bagus Oka TRI ALIT TRESNA PUTRA VANIA RISKASARI YR Wijayakusuma, I Gusti Ngurah Lanang Yasmin Roni Mz