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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Electronics and Instrumentation Systems GEMA TEKNOLOGI BERKALA FISIKA SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA JURNAL SISTEM INFORMASI BISNIS Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan YOUNGSTER PHYSICS JOURNAL Jurnal Sistem Komputer Program Kreativitas Mahasiswa - Karsa Cipta International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED PHYSICS Journal of Physics and Its Applications Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Jurnal Pengabdian Vokasi Scientific Journal of Informatics
Jatmiko Endro Suseno
Department Of Physics, Faculty Of Science And Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Physics Other

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Journal : Scientific Journal of Informatics

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Optimization of Mineral Fuel Export Forecasting Using Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory Prasetya, Ananda; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro; Sutikno
Scientific Journal of Informatics Vol. 13 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/sji.v13i1.38381

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to optimize the forecasting of the Net Value of Indonesia's mineral fuel exports using the Attention-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, supported by Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques that are combined to produce an optimal model. Methods: Modeling uses an LSTM architecture equipped with an Attention mechanism, as well as Dropout and Recurrent Dropout. The research procedure uses the CRISP-DM (Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) methodology. The research material used is the Indonesian mineral fuel export dataset with HS code 27 from 2014 to 2025. Model was built using the Random Search method to optimize hyperparameters such as the number of neurons (units), activation functions (Tanh, ReLu), and optimizers (Adam, Nadam, RMSprop). Result: The Attention-based LSTM model with Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques achieved a MAPE of 7.76%, which was better than the other models tested. Attention analysis shows that lag 12 has the greatest dominance, while lags 11 to 10 also contribute significantly, indicating an annual seasonal pattern. Projections for the next 12 months show a moderate decline in Net Value, in line with seasonal trends and historical data. Novelty: The main contribution of this research is the optimization of an Attention-based LSTM model using a combination of Dropout and Recurrent Dropout techniques, which is effective in forecasting Indonesia's mineral fuel export values because it is able to capture annual seasonal patterns, thereby improving the accuracy and stability of the forecast results.
Co-Authors Achmad Supriyadi, Achmad Agus Setyawan Agus Subagio Agus Sudarmanto Agus Sulistiyo Agus Syafrudin Ainie Khuriati Ali Khumaeni Anak Agung Istri Sri Wiadnyani Andri Wibowo Ari Bawono Putranto Ari Bawono Putranto Arlien Siswanti Asep Yoyo Wardaya Basit, Muhammad Abdul Binu Soesanto, Qidir Maulana Catur Edi Widodo Dian Anggraini Djalal Er Riyanto Evi Setiawati Fatkhur Rohman Figur Humani Fitria L Giga Verian Pratama Glar Donia Deni Habib Sabil Rosyidi Hadi, Muhammad Rafli Irsyad Heri Sugito Hudzaifah Hazazi Zia Kusuma Humairoh Ratu Ayu I Gusti Ngurah Antaryama I Nyoman Sujana Ibnu Arimono Inayatul Inayah Irwan Agus Saputro Isnaeni Isnaeni Isnain Gunadi Isnain Gunadi K. Sofjan Firdausi Karyadi, Kukuh Kasto Wijoyo Teguh Guntoro kusminto , joko budi poernomo, kusminto Kusworo Adi Megarini Hersaputri Moch. Abdul Mukid Much. Azam Muchammad Azam, Muchammad Muhammad Hidayat Muhammad Nur Muhammad Nur Mustafid Mustafid Nurhady Mustofa Pandji Triadyaksa Paramesvari, Dhenok Prastyaningtyas Prabowo, Muhammad Nur Prasetya, Ananda Priyono Priyono Putra, Hisbicus Dwi Surya Putra, Satrio Sandi Putri, Yurixa Sakhinatul R Rizal Isnanto Ratna Dewi Winesthi Ratu Bilqis Redemtus Heru Tjahjana Reza Lutfi Ismai Rin Hafsahtul Asiah Rinaldo Turang, Rinaldo Ririn Sulpiani S. Suryono Sari, W.T. Satriyo Adhy Sela Ade Otaviana Sudarno Sudarno Sumariyah Sumariyah Suryono Suryono Susilo Hadi Susilo Hadi, Susilo SUTIKNO Thessa Putri Aulia Tomy Kusbramanto Udi Harmoko Widiasmoro, Andi Wiktasari Sari, Wiktasari Windarta, Jaka Yundari, Yundari Yusup Hidayat Yuyu Wahyudin Zaenal Arifin Zaenul Muhlisin Zakiyyah, A.Z.