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Journal : Communication in Biomathematical Sciences

Analysis of A Coendemic Model of COVID-19 and Dengue Disease Hilda Fahlena; Widya Oktaviana; Farida; Sudirman; Nuning Nuraini; Edy Soewono
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.2.5

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread aggressively worldwide, infecting more than 170 million people with confirmed cases, including more than 3 million deaths. This pandemic is increasingly exacerbating the burden on tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to the pre-existing dengue fever, which has become endemic for a longer period in the same region. Co-circulation dengue and COVID-19 cases have been found and confirmed in several countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for the coendemic of COVID-19 and dengue is proposed. The basic reproduction ratio is obtained, which is related to the four equilibria, disease-free, endemic-COVID-19, endemic-dengue, and coendemic equilibria. Stability analysis is done for the first three equilibria. Furthermore, a condition for coexistence equilibrium is obtained, which gives a condition for bifurcation analysis. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain a stable limit-cycle resulting from two Hopf bifurcation points with dengue transmission rate and COVID-19 transmission rate as the bifurcation parameter, representing a stable periodic coexistence of dengue and COVID-19 transmission. We identify the period of limit cycle decreases after reaching the maximum value.
Data-Driven Generating Operator in SEIRV Model for COVID-19 Transmission Nadia; Zikri, Afdol; Rizqina, Sila; Sukandar, Kamal Khairudin; Fakhruddin, Muhammad; Tay, Chai Jian; Nuraini, Nuning
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2023.6.1.6

Abstract

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine has been extensively implemented through large-scale programs in numerous countries as a preventive measure against the resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In line with this vaccination effort, the Indonesian government has successfully inoculated over 74% of its population. Nevertheless, a significant decline in the duration of vaccine-induced immunity has raised concerns regarding the necessity of additional inoculations, such as booster shots. Prior to proceeding with further inoculation measures, it is imperative for the government to assess the existing level of herd immunity, specifically determining whether it has reached the desired threshold of 70%. To shed light on this matter, our objective is to ascertain the herd immunity level following the initial and subsequent vaccination programs, while also proposing an optimal timeframe for conducting additional inoculations. This study utilizes COVID-19 data from Jakarta and employs the SEIRV model, which integrates time-dependent parameters and incorporates an additional compartment to represent the vaccinated population. By formulating a dynamic generator based on the cumulative cases function, we are able to comprehensively evaluate the analytical and numerical aspects of all state dynamics. Simulation results reveal that the number of individuals protected by the vaccine increases following the vaccination program; however, this number subsequently declines due to the waning effect of the vaccine. Our estimates indicate that the vaccination program in Jakarta has achieved herd immunity levels exceeding 70% from October 2021 to February 2022, thus underscoring the necessity of rolling out further inoculations no later than February 2022.
A Simple Modelling of Microscopic Epidemic Process with Two Vaccine Doses on a Synthesized Human Interaction Network Seprianus; Nuraini, Nuning; Saputro, Suhadi Wido
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2024.7.1.6

Abstract

In this study, we illustrate the incorporation of two vaccine doses into a discrete SIR model to aid in the decision-making process for optimal vaccination strategies. We present a basic model of a human interaction network synthesized to depict social contacts within a population, taking into account the number of connections and the level of interaction among individuals. Under a limited number of available vaccine doses, we explore various vaccination scenarios considering factors such as the distribution of vaccines, the proportion of vaccinated individuals, and the timing of vaccination commencement. Our research demonstrates that the most effective vaccination strategy, which focuses on re-characterized hubs or redefining the individual who has high connectivity, will cover fewer individuals and result in the smallest total number of infected individuals.
Mathematical Model for the Growth of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Infection in the Lungs: Dewanti, Retno Wahyu; Widianto, Wisnu Prasojo; Apri, Mochamad; Nuraini, Nuning; Fakhruddin, Muhammad
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2025.8.1.8

Abstract

In this work, we develop a population dynamics model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the bacteria responsible for tuberculosis (TB), to evaluate the impact of bacterial competition on infection prevalence. We consider two types of Mtb population growth: The first is caused by bacteria that grow inside each infected macrophage and is believed to be correlated with the number of infected macrophages; The second is that extracellular bacteria grow through self-replication. In this study, we modeled the immune response to Mtb bacterial infection in the lungs using a five-dimensional differential equation system. This model represents changes in the number of healthy macrophages, infected macrophages, activated macrophages cells, extracellular bacterial particles, and naive T cells. Qualitative analysis and numerical results reveal the existence of two equilibrium points: disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium, which represent latent or active tuberculosis based on the number of bacteria. In addition, a sensitive analysis of the model parameters shows that macrophages are not sufficient to control the initial invasion of Mtb. The immune system must therefore employ more complex defense mechanisms to contain Mtb infection, such as recruiting various elements of immune system and forming granulomas.