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All Journal PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Moch. Abdul Mukid

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Author-ID : 475550

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Other

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PERAMALAN JUMLAH KECELAKAAN DI KOTA SEMARANG TAHUN 2017 MENGGUNAKAN METODE RUNTUN WAKTU (Studi Kasus : Data Jumlah Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas di Kota Semarang Periode Januari 2012 – Desember 2016) Iantazar Rezqitullah Maharsi; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 3 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Accident data from Satlantas Polrestabes Semarang City is known that in 2016 there is an increase in the number of traffic accidents in the Semarang city. In the future the impact of accidents is predicted to be bigger so it is necessary to forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important elements in decision making, because effective or not a decision generally depends on several factors that can not be seen at the time the decision was taken. In this time study the possible time series model is ARMA (2,2), ARMA (2,1), ARMA (1,2), ARMA (1,1), AR (2), AR (1), MA (2), MA (1). However, after testing, the model used is ARMA (1,1). This model is used because it meets all the assumption requirements that are parameter significant , residual indepedent test, residual normality test and the smallest Mean Square Error value. According to data forecasting results showed the highest number of crashes existed in January of 97 accidents and the lowest in December amounted to 93 accidents, So that the necessary to action from the relevant agencies to cope with the increasing number of traffic accidents in the city of Semarang. Keywords : Time Series Method, ARMA (1,1), Traffic Accident.

ANALISA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN DAN KEPUASAN KONSUMEN PADA LAYANAN INTERNET SPEEDY DI KOTA SEMARANG MENGGUNAKAN PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (PLS) Bella Cynthia Devi; Abdul Hoyyi; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Persepsi konsumen terhadap tuntutan kebutuhan layanan internet Speedysangat beragam. Terdapat beberapa faktor yang dipertimbangkan konsumen sebelum menggunakan layanan akses internet, faktor tersebut diantaranya harga, merek dan kualitas. Di lain pihak, konsumen akan merasa puas jikalayanan internet Speedy melebihi harapan konsumen. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan pembelian dan kepuasan layanan internet Speedy diungkapkan secara komprehensif dengan persamaan struktural berbasis komponen, Partial Least Square (PLS). PLS mengestimasi model hubungan antar variabel laten dan antar variabel laten dengan indikatornya. Dari hasil analisis diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa keputusan pembelian layanan internet Speedy dipengaruhi oleh harga, merek dan kualitas, sedangkan kepuasan konsumen dipengaruhi oleh keputusan pembelian dan kualitas. Kata kunci : Partial Least Square, Speedy, keputusan pembelian, kepuasanANALISA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN DAN KEPUASAN KONSUMEN PADA LAYANAN INTERNET SPEEDY DI KOTA SEMARANGMENGGUNAKAN PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (PLS)

PERAMALAN JUMLAH TAMU HOTEL DI KABUPATEN DEMAK MENGGUNAKAN METODE SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION Desy Trishardiyanti Adiningtyas; Diah Safitri; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The purpose of this research is to forecast the number of hotel’s guests in Demak using Support Vector Regression. Support Vector Regression (SVR) is method used for forecasting. Forecasting the number of hotel’s guests in Demak using SVR produce good accuracy for forecasting the training and testing data. Forecasting for the training data generate MAPE value of 10.2806% and forecasting of testing data generate MAPE value of 11.622%.Keywords: Support Vector Regression, hotel, Demak, accuracy, forecasting, training, testing

KLASIFIKASI KINERJA PERUSAHAAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED K NEAREST NEIGHBOR (Studi Kasus: 436 Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2015) Cyntia Surya Utami; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 2 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

A company's performance can be seen from the analysis of the company's financial statements. Financial statement analysis is used to determine the development of the company's financial condition. In analyzing the financial statements required financial ratios depicting the weight of the company's performance. This thesis aims to classify the performance of the company into two classifications, namely the company healthy and unhealthy companies as well as determine the level of accuracy. This final project using financial ratio data 436 companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2015 which has been audited and is divided into two parts of 349 training data and 87 test data. The method used is the weighted k nearest neighbor with a dependent variable is the performance of the company and six independent variables are financial ratios WCTA, ROA, TATO, DAR, LDAR and ROI. The results of this thesis show that the method of calculation of weighted k k nearest neighbor optimal done by trial and error. Provided that the optimal k at k = 3 for kernel inversion, epanechnikov and triangles while for optimal kernel k gauss at k = 4. The accuracy of classification and classification performance of the company gave almost the same results by using kernel inversion, Gauss, epanechnikov and triangles. Keywords: financial ratios, weighted k nearest neighbor and kernel inversion, Gauss, epanechnikov and triangles.

IDENTIFIKASI FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI TERJADINYA PREEKLAMPSIA DENGAN METODE CHAID (Studi Kasus pada Ibu Hamil Kategori Jampersal di RSUD Dr.Moewardi Surakarta) Restu Sri Rahayu; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Triastuti Wuryandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 2 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Pre-eclampsia is a spesific pregnancy disease in which hypertency and proteinuria occurs after 20 weeks of pregnancy . This sickness is caused by many factors. To identify the factors, We lowercase a statistical analysis that can explain the characteristics of pregnant women who has pre-eclampsia. One analysis used for segmentation is CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection). This analysis classify and view the segmentation on nominal scale dependent variable (patient’s status). CHAID analysis result indicates that the history of hypertension is the most influential independent variable. The tree diagram shows that there are seven segments of pregnant women, this study reveals that, there are three segments that need to be concerned because these segments show a high number and high index value exceeds 100% of pregnant women with pre-eclampsia. These segments need an effort to support the reduction of MMR. The three segment are segment pregnant women who has the history of hypertension; segment pregnant women of primary school degree and who are jobless, overweight, with no history of hypertension; and segment pregnant women with elementary and junior high school degree, who has jobs, and no hypertension history. Accuration of the CHAID algorithm in classifying is 78,2%. Keywords: Pre-eclampsia, Classify, CHAID, Maternal Mortality Ratio, Accuration

ANALISIS KECENDERUNGAN INFORMASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE TEXT MINING (Studi Kasus: Akun twitter @detikcom) Syaifudin Karyadi; Hasbi Yasin; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 4 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The internet is an extraordinary phenomenon. Starting from a military experiment in the United States, the internet has evolved into a 'need' for more than tens of millions of people worldwide. The number of internet users is large and growing, has been creating internet culture. One of the fast growing social media twitter. Twitter is a microblogging service that stores text database called tweets. To make it easier to obtain information that is dominant discussed, then sought the topic of twitter tweet using clustering. In this research, grouping 500 tweets from twitter account @detikcom using k-means clustering. The results of this study indicate that the maximum index Dunn, the best grouping K-means clustering to obtain the dominant topic as many as three clusters, namely the government, Jakarta, and politics.Keywords: text mining, clustering,, k-means , dunn index, and twitter.

OPTIMALISASI PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN MEAN VARIANCE EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO (MVEP) (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham LQ45) Mardison Purba; Sudarno Sudarno; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Investment is planting some funds to get profit. However, there is a positive relationship between risk and return that is High Risk High Return. So, the investor seeks to maximize expected return using portfolio optimization. The nature of the stock fluctuates over time, often times it poses a risk to lose money. In the science of finance, the fluctuations of stock returns is known as volatility. Then the stock volatility measurement uses Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). Methods of Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) is used for the selection of the best stocks of the nine sectors LQ45. Portfolios are formed of nine sectors were weighted using the Mean-Variance optimal Efficient Portfolio (MVEP). The weight placed on the largest fund shares at IMAS 25.12%, amounting to 19.53% BDMN, BWPT by 6.40%, 9.75% for INCO, SMCB by 7.72%, amounting to 9.37% INDF, BKSL for 2.27%, 16.87% and TLKM of MAPI by 2.98%. Based on analysis, volatility measurement of IMAS, TLKM and BDMN especially using EWMA. Risk measurement tool used for stock portfolio is Value at Risk (VaR) and Risk measurement tool used for stocks is Component Value at Risk (CVaR). With a confidence level of 95% and an investment of IDR 100.000.000 the loss investment using VaR for one day in the future is IDR 1.799.824. Meanwhile, if using CVaR then the maximum loss investment for the day ahead is IDR 1.523.000,73.

ANALISIS PREFERENSI KONSUMEN TERHADAP PRODUK SUSU BERBASIS ANALISIS CONJOINT MENGGUNAKAN METODE PRESENTASI PAIRWISE-COMPARISON (Studi kasus di Beberapa SMP di Kecamatan Banyumanik Kota Semarang) Trianita Resmawati; Moch. Abdul Mukid; Diah Safitri
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 2, No 4 (2013): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In this study aims to help producer or milk companies to know and understand consumer preferences for attributes combination of milk products specifically for adolescent. The method used in this study is the conjoint analysis using pairwise-comparison as a method of presentation. In this research, the attributes that used are the type of milk, flavor, packaging, and fat content. The result of this reserach shows that the packaging is the most important attribute between the other attributes with a relative importance value of 56.13%. The second most importance attribute is flavor of milk with a relative importance value of 38.55%. Fat content was ranked in the third place with a relative importance value of 4.28%, and the type of milk as the fourth attribute with a relative importance value of 1.05%. In addition, the stimuli is desired by consumers for milk products specifically for adolescent are condensed milk, chocolate, canned, and non fat.

PENGARUH MARKETING MIX TERHADAP KEPUASAN DAN LOYALITAS KONSUMEN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELLING (SEM) Syarah Widyaningtyas; Triastuti Wuryandari; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 3 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Marketing mix is a combination of variables that constitute the core of marketing system, consisting a set of variables that can be controlled and used by companies to influence consumer responses in target markets comprise. One that used in this study for analysis is Structural Equation Model (SEM). The study shows that satisfaction influenced by promotion, pricing, product and location of 38,9%, that loyalty is explained by satisfaction, promotion, pricing, product and location of 99,8%. In significant testing, it was found that pricing, product, location are significant to satisfaction. Satisfaction is significant to loyalty; while pricing, location, product are not significant to loyalty. Promotion is not significant to satisfaction and loyalty. Based on the results of data processing using software AMOS 22.0, the model SEM has been convenient and fit for use in research because the data has been proven to have normal distribution and have met the criteria for Goodness of Fit.Keywords: Marketing Mix, Consumer Satisfaction, Consumer Loyalty, Structural Equational Modelling.

RANCANGAN D-OPTIMAL UNTUK REGRESI POLINOMIAL DERAJAT 3 DENGAN HETEROSKEDASTISITAS Naomi Rahma Budhianti; Tatik Widiharih; Moch. Abdul Mukid
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 2, No 2 (2013): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Suatu model hubungan antara variabel prediktor X dan variabel respon Y, dalam hal ini adalah model regresi polinomial derajat 3 dengan heteroskedastisitas yang mempunyai fungsi bobot . Permasalahan yang muncul adalah bagaimana memilih titik-titik rancangan X yang akan dicobakan sehingga model menjadi signifikan. Rancangan D-Optimal adalah rancangan dengan kriteria keoptimalan meminimumkan variansi estimator parameter. Jika variansi estimator parameter minimum maka diharapkan parameter dalam model menjadi signifikan sehingga model juga signifikan. Kriteria rancangan D-Optimal didapatkan dengan memaksimumkan determinan matriks informasi atau meminimumkan determinan invers matriks informasi.

Co-Authors Abdul Hoyyi Agus Rusgiyono Alan Prahutama Alvita Rachma Devi Anifa Anifa Anissa Pangastuti Arief Rachman Hakim Bella Cynthia Devi Bramaditya Swarasmaradhana Budi Warsito Bunga Maharani Catra Aditya Wisnu Aji Chainur Arrasyid Hasibuan Cyntia Surya Utami Dedy Douglas Harianja Desy Trishardiyanti Adiningtyas Diah Safitri Dwi Ispriyanti Dyan Anggun Krismala Elyas Darmawan Endah Cahyaningrum Erna Fransisca Angela Sihotang Erna Puspitasari Etik Setyowati Fatma Septy Deviana Fitra Ramdhani Hasbi Yasin Herwindhito Dwi Putranto Iantazar Rezqitullah Maharsi Kiki Febri Azriati Laili Isna Nur Khiqmah Landong Panahatan Hutahaean Mardison Purba Marta Widyastuti Muhammad Rizki Naomi Rahma Budhianti Niken Anggraini Dewi Novia Agustina Nunung Hanurowati Nurhikmah Megawati Panji Wisnu Wirawan Rachmah Dewi Kusumah Restu Sri Rahayu Rita Rahmawati Riza Adi Priantoro Shaumal Luqman Solly Aryza Sudarno Sudarno Sugito Sugito Suparti Suparti Syaifudin Karyadi Syarah Widyaningtyas Tatik Widiharih Trianita Resmawati Triastuti Wuryandari Ungu Siwi Maharunti Yosi Dhyas Monica Yuciana Wilandari

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