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Macroeconomic Determinants of Per Capita Consumption in Indonesia: Evidence from 19902023 Using an ECM Framework Prawoto, Nano
Riwayat: Educational Journal of History and Humanities Vol 8, No 2 (2025): April
Publisher : Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/jr.v8i2.45505

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of GDP per capita, exchange rate (ER), and broad money (BM) on per capita consumption in Indonesia over the period 19902023. The data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI), and the analysis was conducted using the Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. The findings reveal that, in the long run, GDP per capita and exchange rate significantly influence per capita consumption, while broad money has no statistically significant effect. In the short run, only GDP per capita shows a significant impact. The error correction term (ECT) value of -0.490507 indicates a moderate speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium, suggesting that approximately 49% of the disequilibrium is corrected annually. This research contributes to empirical literature by providing updated evidence on macroeconomic determinants of household consumption in a developing country context, using a long-term dataset with rigorous econometric techniques. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the importance of stable economic growth and prudent exchange rate management in sustaining household welfare through consumption. Policymakers should focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, particularly through growth-enhancing and inflation-controlling measures, to ensure steady improvements in per capita consumption.
Analysis of Determinants of Indonesian Nickel Exports Towards an Energy Sovereign Country Nano Prawoto
Jurnal Ekonomi Vol. 13 No. 02 (2024): Jurnal Ekonomi, Edition April - June 2024
Publisher : SEAN Institute

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Abstract

This research aims to analyze the determinants that influence Indonesian nickel exports.The determinants used in this research consist of internal factors of national Nickel production, Rupiah exchange rate against the Dollar, investment and external factors, total GNP of European countries, and total investment of European countries.This research uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).The research results show that in the short term the Nickel production value variable has a negative effect, foreign investment from Europe has a positive effect, domestic investment has a negative effect, gross domestic product per capita from European countries has a positive effect, and the Rupiah exchange rate has a negative effect on Indonesian Nickel exports.Then, in the long term, the nickel production value variable has a positive influence, foreign investment from Europe has a positive influence, domestic investment has a negative influence, gross domestic product per capita from European countries has a negative influence, and the dollar exchange rate has a positive influence on Indonesian nickel exports.From the results of this research, it can be explained that national nickel production and foreign investment from Europe greatly contribute to the value of nickel exports in the long term.However, domestic investment in the mining sector has a negative impact, meaning that investment uses a lot of non-nickel or imported raw materials.The GDP per capita of European countries also has a negative effect, meaning that production from European industry is not completely dependent on Indonesian nickel raw materials.
Strengthening digital capacity and disaster safety for the Merapi slope tourism jeep community Prawoto, Nano; Nurjanah, Adhianty; Damarjati, Cahya
Community Empowerment Vol 10 No 10 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Magelang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31603/ce.14852

Abstract

The Merapi slopes area in Sleman is a disaster-prone region that also serves as a potential destination for jeep tourism. The main challenges faced are a lack of digital promotion capacity and disaster preparedness. This community service aimed to enhance the economic independence and safety of the Merapi Jeep Community by strengthening digital promotion, implementing a Disaster Response Information System (SIMANTAB), and developing Safe Tourism SOPs. The implementation methods included socialization, training, technology application, and mentoring. Interventions encompassed digital marketing training, SIMANTAB integration, SOP development, and fulfillment of safety standards (SNI helmets). The program results showed a significant increase in partner understanding (averaging over 80%) in disaster mitigation and digital marketing aspects, as well as 88% success in developing Safe Tourism SOPs. This program impacted professionalism, tourist trust, and income potential. Program sustainability is ensured through the formation of a local master trainer team, establishing an effective collaborative model for sustainable tourism in disaster-prone areas.
Tourism receipts of intra-OIC countries: An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and technology adoption Munifatussaidah, Asma; Prawoto, Nano; Febriandika, Nur Rizqi
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 2: October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i2.28772

Abstract

Tourism is one of the primary sources of income for many OIC countries and is becoming increasingly vital for economic growth. This study explores how macroeconomic factors, trade, inflation, exchange rates, and technology adoption relate to intra-OIC tourism receipts. It employs a quantitative approach to analyze 34 member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), selected through purposive sampling. The data are analyzed using panel data regression. Prior cross-country studies rarely focus specifically on intra-OIC tourism receipts and seldom examine macroeconomic and technology variables together. The results indicate that trade, the exchange rate, and information technology adoption each have a positive and significant impact on intra-OIC tourism receipts. Meanwhile, inflation has no impact on intra-OIC tourism revenues. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing specifically on intra-OIC tourism receipts and analyzing macroeconomic and technology variables. The findings suggest that adopting trade policies, managing exchange rates, and utilizing information technology can boost intra-OIC tourism receipts. Policies that promote intra-OIC trade and mobility—by improving connectivity, expanding e-visa access, accelerating digital adoption in payments and broadband, and maintaining exchange-rate stability—can help increase intra-OIC tourism receipts.
Forging Pathways to Success: Innovative Approaches to Private Higher Education in Central Java Andoko, Bhimo Widyo; Prawoto, Nano; Wahyuningsih, Sri Handari; Susilowati, Indah
Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen Vol 39, No 2 (2024): July 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis UNTAG Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56444/mem.v39i2.4801

Abstract

This research identifies leadership styles at private universities in Central Java, analyzes organizational culture, and formulates strategies for the success/survival of private universities. Primary data was obtained through in-depth interviews with 9 university leaders as informants, with stratified sampling based on excellent, excellent, and good accreditation categories. Semi-structured interviews focused on leadership approaches, organizational culture, success strategies, and challenges. The data were analyzed using ATLAS.TI with thematic analysis. The results show that private universities have characteristics, such as leadership styles, that form different organizational cultures. There are differences in higher education management strategies between accreditation categories, especially in strategic priorities according to institutional goals. Superiorly accredited universities tend to prioritize research excellence, international collaboration, and innovative academic programs. The implication is that understanding the relationship between leadership, organizational culture, and strategic priorities can help universities align these elements for optimal effectiveness in achieving success in the competitive environment of higher education.
THE EFFECT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, INTERNASIONAL CPO PRICE, CPO CONSUMPTION, AND INFLATION ON INDONESIA’S CRUDEPALM OIL EXPORT VOLUME Nano Prawoto; Putriku Gusnia
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE Vol. 1 No. 10 (2024): INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE (INJOLE)
Publisher : Adisam Publisher

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Abstract

Palm oil is one of the non-oil and gas export commodities from plantation products. Crude palm oil (CPO) has been recognized as one of the main agricultural commodities for Indonesia's exports. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil, which makes exports as one of the sectors that can advance the Indonesian economy. This study aims to analyse Indonesian palm oil exports to 10 main export destination countries, including the Gross Domestic Product of destination countries, international CPO prices, destination country CPO consumption, and destination country inflation. The data used in this study is secondary data for 2018-2022 and is quantitative data. Panel data regression method was used in this research, with test results showing that the right model used is a fixed effect model. The results of this study show that the Gross Domestic Product and inflation of destination countries have a significant negative influence. Meanwhile, international CPO prices and CPO consumption of destination countries have a significant positive influence on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports to the 10 main destination countries in 2018-2022. This research can be a reference related to Indonesia's palm oil export policy.
FACTORS AFFECTING PHYSICAL INVESTMENT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES Nano Prawoto
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS Vol. 1 No. 11 (2025): INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS (IJEFE)
Publisher : CV. Adiba Aisha Amira

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth, labor force, interest rate, tax revenue, trade, and industrial value added on gross fixed capital formation / PMTB in ASEAN countries with a panel data approach. The methodology used in this study is panel data regression with Fixed Effect Model approach. The data used in this study are from 2001 to 2021 in 5 ASEAN countries. The results of this study show that labor force, trade value and industrial value added have a positive influence on gross fixed capital formation, while economic growth, interest rate and tax revenue have a negative influence on gross fixed capital formation. The implication of this research is that ASEAN countries must increase the competitiveness of industrial products to increase capital inflow in the ASEAN Region.
Exploring the Interrelationship Between Economic Growth, Investment, and CO2 Emissions in Indonesia: A Time-Series Approach Nano Prawoto
Neo Journal of economy and social humanities Vol 4 No 1 (2025): Neo Journal of Economy and Social Humanities
Publisher : International Publisher (YAPENBI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56403/nejesh.v4i1.255

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This study aims to analyze the influence of economic growth, investment, industrial added value, trade value, and oil consumption on CO2 emissions in Indonesia in the period 1987-2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, this study also considers the role of government policies in regulating carbon emissions and mitigating negative impacts on the environment. The method used in this study is the ECM (Error Correction Model) regression approach. The results show that in the long term, economic growth, industrial value-added, and oil consumption have a positive effect on increasing CO2 emissions in Indonesia, while investment (GFCF) and trade value have a negative effect on CO2 emissions. In the short term, industrial value added, and trade value have no significant effect on CO2 emissions, while economic growth and oil consumption encourage an increase in CO2 emissions. Investment (GFCF) contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions. Indonesian government policies that focus on reducing carbon emissions through regulations that support renewable energy and energy efficiency, as well as controlling oil consumption, are expected to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The implication of these findings is that more assertive and integrated policies between the economic and environmental sectors are needed to effectively reduce CO2 emissions, while supporting economic growth and industrialization.
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PROFIT BANK UMUM SYARIAH: PENDEKATAN ECM Prawoto, Nano
KENDALI: Economics and Social Humanities Vol. 4 No. 3 (2026): KENDALI: Economics and Social Sciences Humanities, Maret 2026
Publisher : ASIAN PUBLISHER

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58738/kendali.v4i3.1431

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas Bank Umum Syariah (BUS) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dengan menggunakan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM). Variabel independen yang digunakan meliputi cash, pembiayaan (PEMBBH), dana pihak ketiga (DPK), dan surat berharga yang dimiliki (SBYD), sedangkan variabel dependen adalah profit yang ditransformasikan dalam bentuk logaritma. Data yang digunakan merupakan data runtut waktu periode Januari 2023– Desember 2025. Hasil uji stasioneritas menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel tidak stasioner pada level, namun menjadi stasioner pada diferensiasi pertama. Uji kointegrasi mengindikasikan adanya hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel-variabel penelitian. Estimasi model ECM menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, hanya variabel DPK yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap profitabilitas BUS, sedangkan variabel lainnya tidak signifikan. Sementara itu, koefisien error correction term (ECT) bernilai negatif dan signifikan, yang menunjukkan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Uji asumsi klasik menunjukkan bahwa model terbebas dari masalah heteroskedastisitas dan autokorelasi, meskipun terdapat indikasi multikolinearitas pada model jangka panjang. Secara keseluruhan, hasil penelitian ini memberikan implikasi bahwa pengelolaan dana pihak ketiga menjadi faktor penting dalam meningkatkan profitabilitas BUS, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam proses menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang.
Analysis of Factors Affecting the Profitability of Islamic Rural Banks in Indonesia: A Dynamic Regression Model Approach Nano Prawoto
International Journal of Science, Technology & Management Vol. 7 No. 3 (2026): May 2026
Publisher : Publisher Cv. Inara Colaboration with www.stie-sampit.ac.id

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46729/ijstm.v7i3.1426

Abstract

This study aims to examine the factors affecting the profitability of Islamic Rural Banks (BPR Syariah) in Indonesia using a dynamic regression model. The data employed are monthly observations from January 2020 to December 2025, totaling 72 observations. The variables analyzed include profit as the main dependent variable, as well as cash, profit-sharing financing, mudharabah financing, murabahah financing, assets, and lagged profit. All variables are transformed into logarithmic form and estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. The results indicate that, collectively, all variables have a significant effect on profitability. Individually, profit-sharing financing and lagged profit exhibit a positive and significant influence, implying that increases in these factors lead to higher profitability. In contrast, assets show a negative and significant effect, suggesting that asset growth is not necessarily accompanied by an increase in profit. Cash has a positive effect, while mudharabah financing shows a negative effect at a more lenient significance level. Meanwhile, murabahah financing does not have a significant impact on profitability. The Adjusted R-squared value indicates that the model explains approximately 41.4% of the variation in profitability, while the remaining portion is influenced by other factors not included in the model. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of effective financing management and asset efficiency in improving the profitability performance of Islamic Rural Banks.