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All Journal JEJAK Journal of Governance and Accountability Studies Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Haryono Subiyakto, Haryono
STIE YKPN Yogyakarta,
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Cointegration and Causality Test Among Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange Subiyakto, Haryono; Algifari, Algifari
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 9, No 1 (2016): March 2016
Publisher : Semarang State University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v9i1.6656

Abstract

The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.
Cointegration and Causality Test Among Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange Subiyakto, Haryono; Algifari, Algifari
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 9, No 1 (2016): March 2016
Publisher : Semarang State University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v9i1.7188

Abstract

The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.
Cointegration and Causality Test Among Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange Subiyakto, Haryono; Algifari, Algifari
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 9, No 1 (2016): March 2016
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v9i1.7188

Abstract

The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country's national economy: The Indonesian experience Algifari, Algifari; Subiyakto, Haryono; Rohman, Isnanda Zainur
Journal of Governance and Accountability Studies Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024): January
Publisher : Goodwood Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35912/jgas.v4i1.1550

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of inflation, exchange rates, and the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesia's trade balance position and to develop an empirical estimation model to predict its position. Method: The data used in this research are the inflation rate, exchange rate of rupiah to the US dollar, export value, and import value of Indonesia from January 2012 to March 2021. The econometric model used in this study was a binary logistic regression model. Results: The results indicate that The regression coefficient of the inflation rate is negative at 0.3621, with an odds ratio of 0.696. This suggests that 1 percent in inflation reduces the probability of a trade balance surplus of 0.696. The regression coefficient for the exchange rate was positive at 2.18, with an odds ratio of 8.85. This means that every 2.72 rupiah increase in the exchange rate raises the probability of a trade balance surplus of 8.85 times. However, this study does not find empirical evidence that inflation, exchange rates, and pandemic of Covid-19 have no impact on the position of Indonesia's trade balance. Limitations: This study focuses on two factors believed to influence the position of trade balance in Indonesia: the inflation rate and foreign exchange rates. Contributions: This study provides insights into government policy.
PENGARUH PERKEMBANGAN SEKTOR PARIWISATA TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT KABUPATEN GUNUNGKIDUL DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA Badrudin, Rudy; Giri, Efraim Ferdinan; Yandra, Fachmi Pachlevi; Subiyakto, Haryono; Algifari
Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Vol 18 No 1 (2024): JEB Vol 18 No 1 Maret 2024
Publisher : LPPM STIE YKPN Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53916/jeb.v18i1.75

Abstract

This study aims to examine the economic impact of tourism development on increasing community welfare in Gunungkidul Regency. Verification of the impact is carried out through community perceptions which are divided into 4 groups, namely community groups around tourist objects, local government groups, groups of business actors around tourist objects, and groups of visitors to tourist objects. Based on the results of research and discussion, it is concluded that the existence of tourist objects, promotion of tourist objects, and the role of the community affect employment; the existence of tourist objects, promotion of tourist objects, and the role of the community in influencing economic activity; the existence of tourist objects, promotion of tourist objects, and the role of the community do not affect the negative impacts of tourism; and employment and economic activity affect people's income, while the negative impact of tourism does not affect people's income.
Co-Authors Algifari Algifari Algifari, Algifari Efraim Ferdinan Giri Fachmi Pachlevi Yandra Isnanda Zainur Rohman, Isnanda Zainur Rudy Badrudin