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All Journal Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri The Indonesian Journal of Occupational Safety and Health IJOCE (International Journal of Offshore and Coastal Engineering) JPP IPTEK (Jurnal Pengabdian dan Penerapan IPTEK) Abdimas Galuh: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat MOTIVECTION : Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering
Adhitya Ryan Ramadhani
Department Of Mechanical Engineering, Universitas Pertamina
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Automotive Engineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Other

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Estimasi Keandalan Sistem Mekanikal Dependen Menggunakan Fungsi Copula Ramadhani, Adhitya Ryan; Pranowo, Waskito
Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri Vol. 13 No. 2 (2024): Vol. 13 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri
Publisher : Universitas Katolik Parahyangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26593/jrsi.v13i2.7219.103-112

Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of assessing the reliability of complex mechanical systems where components are inherently correlated in their failure modes. Traditionally, the assumption of independence among these components has been employed, but it often fails to capture the real-world complexities. To overcome this limitation, copula functions are introduced as a robust methodology for modeling the dependent relationships between correlated variables within mechanical systems. This paper aims to demonstrate the utility of copulas in estimating system reliability while accounting for these dependencies. The results reveal that the Clayton copula emerges as the most suitable model for representing dependence in such systems. Importantly, the reliability estimates obtained through copula-based methods not only reflect the complex interdependencies accurately but also align with the principles of the boundary theory of reliability. This research underscores the potential of copula-based reliability estimation as a valuable alternative, offering a more comprehensive and precise assessment of reliability in complex mechanical systems and holding significant promise for practical engineering applications. This framework allows the consideration of dependence among the observed variables that is usually overlooked in engineering practice.
Bayesian Network Integration of Event Tree and SLIM-Based Human Reliability for Fire and Explosion Risk Assessment: BP-Husky Toledo Refinery Case Study Fairuz Putra Hanem; Adhitya Ryan Ramadhani
MOTIVECTION : Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering Vol 7 No 3 (2025): Motivection : Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering
Publisher : Indonesian Mechanical Electrical and Industrial Research Society (IMEIRS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46574/motivection.v7i3.486

Abstract

The oil and gas processing industry is critical for meeting global energy demand, yet it remains vulnerable to high-consequence accidents such as fires and explosions. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment of a vapour cloud explosion and fire case at the BP-Husky Toledo Refinery using accident investigation report data. The objective is to obtain a more comprehensive representation of accident risk by integrating the performance of physical safety barriers and human reliability within a single analytical framework. Physical escalation pathways and consequence scenarios are modelled using event tree analysis, while human error likelihood is evaluated using the success likelihood index method based on identified error modes and performance shaping factors. Both components are then integrated using a Bayesian network to quantify consequence probabilities and examine the effect of adding a human error barrier and proposed barrier improvements. The results show that the consequence distribution is dominated by near-miss outcomes (approximately 57%) with smaller probabilities for flash fire (about 14%), vapour cloud explosion (about 13%), and rupture (about 16%). Incorporating the human error barrier produces only marginal changes in these probabilities. Nevertheless, the integrated approach improves clarity in linking specific human error mechanisms and barrier performance to overall risk and supports structured evaluation of barrier improvements for accident prevention.
Quantifying Manual Safeguard Failure Probability in High-Flow Gasoline Tank Overfill: An Integrated SLIM–SHIPP–ETA–LOPA Framework for SIL Specification Rafi Adisasmito Syamsudin; Ahmad Dani; Indrawan Christano; Adhitya Ryan Ramadhani
MOTIVECTION : Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering Vol 8 No 2 (2026): Motivection : Journal of Mechanical, Electrical and Industrial Engineering
Publisher : Indonesian Mechanical Electrical and Industrial Research Society (IMEIRS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46574/motivection.v8i2.552

Abstract

High-flow gasoline tank filling can escalate to overfill, fire, or explosion when level control relies on manual safeguards. This study quantified manual safeguard failure in a gasoline storage facility operating at 300 kL/h and specified the required automation level. HAZOP identified the critical deviation, ALOHA characterized consequence zones, SLIM estimated operator error probabilities, SHIPP and ETA represented sequential barrier failure, and LOPA determined the required risk reduction. The “More Level” deviation obtained the highest HAZOP priority. Under the adopted modeling assumptions and an assumed initiating event frequency of 1.0 demand per year, ETA estimated failure probabilities of 3.10 × 10⁻¹ for the Ignition Prevention Barrier and 8.54 × 10⁻¹ for the Escalation Prevention Barrier, producing a major fire/explosion scenario frequency of 1.88 × 10⁻³ per year. This value exceeded the adopted target risk of 1.0 × 10⁻⁴ per year and required an RRF of 18.8. The results support implementing a SIL 1 Safety Instrumented System to supplement manual safeguards.
Co-Authors Abdul Maajid Al Banna Ahmad Dani Aziz, Bonifacius S.I. Barrinaya, Muhammad Akbar Buys, Yose Fachmi Fairuz Putra Hanem Halfan, Ahmad Iman Kartolaksono Reksowardojo Indrawan Christano Jaya, Arie Sukma Kadarno, Purwo Muharram, Farid Pranowo, Waskito Rafi Adisasmito Syamsudin Rahmawan, Yudi Ramdhan, M Zaki Ridwan, Mochamad Maulana Riyandwita, Byan Wahyu Rizq, Daffa Abyan Senna, Ayrton Sri Hastuty, Sri Sylvia Ayu Pradanawati Tambunan, Sahrudin Tananta, Naufal Nizaar Halim Tjahjono, Muhammad Iman Tsalatsa Raihan Waskito Pranowo Widiyati, Khusnun Yose Fachmi Buys Yulia, Fayza