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All Journal JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Quantitative Economics and Management Studies
Fitrianti, Retno
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Dampak Dualisme Otonomi Daerah: Pengurangan Kemiskinan Jangka Panjang vs. Peningkatan Jangka Pendek di Provinsi Bali, Indonesia : Analisis VECM Nursita, Lisa; Fitrianti, Retno
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 14 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jekp.14.2.2025.95-115

Abstract

This study examines the complex dynamics between regional autonomy and poverty in Bali, Indonesia (2002–2024), testing the hypothesis that decentralization reduces poverty despite institutional capacity constraints. Using quarterly data, we apply Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to analyze short-term interactions and long-term equilibrium between fiskal autonomy (measured by local revenue-to-budget ratio) and multidimensional poverty. Lag selection follows rigorous criteria (AIC, SC, HQ), with diagnostic checks for stability (AR roots) and causality (Granger). Findings are Long-term success: A 1% rise in autonomy reduces poverty by 41.3% (VECM: coint. eq. = -41.307, t-stat = -4.73). Short-term anomaly, poverty temporarily increases by 0.4% after autonomy shocks (IRF) due to governance failures, with error correction mechanisms exacerbating poverty (ECT = +0.011, t-stat = 4.00). Autonomy exhibits strong inertia (IRF persistence >5 quarters), while poverty self-perpetuates (hysteresis). Granger tests confirm autonomy and poverty are independent in the short run. Decentralization requires preconditions: anti-corruption frameworks and adaptive capacity building. Asymmetric policies are needed, high-capacity regions benefit from fiskal autonomy, low-capacity regions require central oversight with safety nets (e.g., conditional cash transfers).
Do Democracy and Investment Promote Regional Economic Performance? Evidance from Panel Data Analysis Isma, Andika; Fitrianti, Retno; Alisyahbana, Andi Naila Quin Azisah; Diarra, Salim
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 6 No. 6 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems4483

Abstract

This study investigates whether democracy and investment promote regional economic performance in Indonesia. It employs panel data for 34 provinces over the period 2021–2023, modelling real GRDP per capita as a function of provincial democracy, investment, central government transfers per capita, and population. The empirical analysis is conducted using EViews 13, comparing pooled OLS, random effects, and fixed effects specifications; Chow, Breusch–Pagan LM, and Hausman tests consistently indicate that the fixed effects model is the most appropriate. The estimation results show that provincial democracy, as measured by the Indonesian Democracy Index, does not exert a statistically significant direct effect on regional economic performance within the short observation window. By contrast, investment displays a positive and robust association with real GRDP per capita across specifications, confirming its role as the main proximate driver of regional growth. Central government transfers per capita and population do not exhibit a stable growth-enhancing effect and, in some cases, are weakly or negatively associated with regional output. The findings of this study indicate that, in the short run, investment is the key channel through which regional economies respond to institutional and fiscal environments, while democracy operates more as a deep institutional background whose economic impokact is not immediately visible in annual growth outcomes.
Co-Authors Alisyahbana, Andi Naila Quin Azisah Andika Isma Diarra, Salim Lisa Nursita