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All Journal UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Dwi Sulistiowati
Universitas Negeri Padang
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

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Penerapan Algoritma Extreme Gradient Boosting dengan ADASYN untuk Klasifikasi Rumah Tangga Penerima Program Keluarga Harapan di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Amelia Susrifalah; Dodi Vionanda; Yenni Kurniawati; Dwi Sulistiowati
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss2/369

Abstract

Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH) is a form of social protection provided by the government to overcome poverty in Indonesia. However, challenges remain in accurately predicting eligible households. Therefore, a data-based classification method is needed to identify PKH recipients based on their factors. This research was conducted in West Sumatra Province using variables from the Data Terpadu Kesejahteraan Sosial (DTKS) variable group contained in SUSENAS 2024. Based on data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) of West Sumatera Province, there are 1.790 PKH recipient households and 9.810 non-recipient households, indicating a class imbalance. Considering the large amount of data and complex variables, PKH can be analyzed using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm because of its ability to handle large-scale data and produce high classification performance. To address data imbalance, Adaptive Synthetic (ADASYN) was applied before analysis. The application of XGBoost with the scale_pos_weight parameter shows low classification performance, with sensitivity value of 12.3% and balanced accuracy of 55.2%. To overcome this, unbalanced data was handled using the ADASYN method. The application of XGBoost after data balancing with ADASYN showed significant performance improvement, with sensitivity value 80.4% and balanced accuracy 88.1%. In classifying PKH recipient households, the variables that make an important contribution are the age of the head of household, floor area, diploma of the head of household, floor material and number of household Members. This research shows that the combination of XGBoost and ADASYN is effective in overcoming data imbalance and improving PKH recipient classification performance.
Classification of Recipients of the Family Hope Program in West Sumatra Province Using the Random Forest Algoritma Nini Erdiani; Dwi Sulistiowati; Nonong Amalita; Zamahsary Martha
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 4 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss4/431

Abstract

According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the percentage of poor people in West Sumatra Province increased by 0.02% in 2024. One of the government's efforts to overcome poverty is a social assistance program issued by the government to help people who are economically disadvantaged. The targeted distribution of social assistance is an important challenge in improving community welfare, especially for families receiving PKH benefits. This study aims to classify households receiving the Family Hope Program (PKH) in West Sumatra Province using a random forest algorithm with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). This study uses data on PKH recipient households in West Sumatra Province in 2024, which has a significant class imbalance. Therefore, the SMOTE method was applied to balance the data. The data was divided into training and testing data with a ratio of 80%:20%, then parameter tuning was performed to optimize mtry and ntree. The model was evaluated using a confusion matrix to compare model performance. The results show that the accuracy obtained is 76%. The precision value is 72%, the recall is 84%, and the f1-score is 78%. Based on the Mean Decrease Gini value, the head of household's diploma became the main attribute in determining whether a household received PKH or not. This study concluded that the use of SMOTE in the random forest algorithm performed well in classifying PKH recipients in West Sumatra Province, where the model performed well and was quite reliable in identifying PKH recipients.
Forecasting the Consumer Price Index of Padang City in 2024 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method Suci; Devi Yopita Sipayung; Dila Sari; Fajri Juli Rahman Nur Zendrato; Hadid Habiburrahman; Dwi Sulistiowati; Zilrahmi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol4-iss1/437

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which changes, is influenced by fluctuations in the prices of goods and services in Padang City every year. This is triggered by various factors that are of primary concern to the government. This study uses the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method to forecast CPI in 2024 by relying on monthly data on the Padang City CPI for the period 2020 to 2023 obtained from BPS. This analysis identifies the ARIMA model (0,2,1) as the best and most optimal model based on the AIC and BIC values, does not show any autocorrelation, and is normally distributed. The forecasting model used shows a smooth and stable increase in the CPI in the period from January to December 2024. This model provides a positive signal for people's purchasing power and economic stability in Padang City in 2024. The results obtained are expected to be used as a strategic tool for preparing future goods and services price planning with more precision.
Classification of Tuberculosis in Rumah Sakit Paru Sumatera Barat Using the C5.0 Algorithm Meliani Maya Sari; Zilrahmi; Dony Permana; Dwi Sulistiowati
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol4-iss1/444

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health problem, including in West Sumatra Province, where the number of reported cases has continued to increase in recent years. Consequently, effective methods are required to support early detection and accurate classification of TB patients. This study aims to classify the tuberculosis status of patients at Rumah Sakit Paru Sumatera Barat by applying the C5.0 algorithm. The data used in this study consists of secondary data extracted from patient medical records collected from october to december 2024 with a total of 150 patient medical records. The dataset included eight predictor variables representing clinical symptoms and one target variable, namely sputum smear (BTA) examination results. The research process involved data preprocessing, after which the dataset was divided into training and testing subsets using a 70:30 ratio, a classification model was developed using the C5.0 algorithm, and its performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix. The findings indicate that the C5.0 algorithm achieved an accuracy of 91.11%, with a precision of 95.83%, sensitivity of 88.46%, and specificity of 94.74%. Night sweats were identified as the most influential variable in the construction of the decision tree. These findings indicate that the C5.0 algorithm demonstrates excellent performance and can be applied as a decision support method for classifying tuberculosis based on patients’ clinical symptoms
Co-Authors Amelia Susrifalah Devi Yopita Sipayung Dila Sari Dodi Vionanda Dony Permana Fajri Juli Rahman Nur Zendrato Hadid Habiburrahman Meliani Maya Sari Nini Erdiani Nonong Amalita suci Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi