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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Pengukuran Psikologi dan Pendidikan Indonesia (JP3I) Desimal: Jurnal Matematika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Absis : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) PROSISKO : Jurnal Pengembangan Riset dan observasi Rekayasa Sistem Komputer PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS The Indonesian Journal of Computer Science Kesmas: Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Nasional (National Public Health Journal)
Wijaya, Madona Yunita
Department Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Science And Technology, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta, South Tangerang, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Health Professions Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation

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Forecasting Indonesian inflation using a hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS Fitriyati, Nina; Mahmudi, Mahmudi; Wijaya, Madona Yunita; Maysun, Maysun
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2022): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v5i3.14093

Abstract

This paper discusses the prediction of the inflation rate in Indonesia. The data used in this research is assumed to have both linear and non-linear components. The ARIMA model is selected to accommodate the linear component, while the ANFIS method accounts for the non-linear component in the inflation data. Thus, the model is known as the hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model. The clustering method is performed in the ANFIS model using Fuzzy C-Mean (FMS) with a Gaussian membership function. Consider 2 to 6 clusters. The optimal number of clusters is assessed according to the minimum value of the error prediction. To evaluate the performance of the fitted hybrid ARIMA-ANFIS model, it can be compared to the classical ARIMA model and with the ordinary ANFIS model. The result reveals that the best ARIMA model for inflation prediction in Indonesia is ARIMA(2,1,0). In the hybrid ARIMA(2,1,0)-ANFIS model, two clusters are optimal. Meanwhile, the optimum number of clusters in the ordinary ANFIS model is six. The comparison of prediction accuracy confirms that the hybrid model is superior to the individual model alone of either ARIMA or ANFIS model.
Mathematical modelling of covid-19 using health mask, vaccination, quarantine, and asymptomatic case Manaqib, Muhammad; Wijaya, Madona Yunita; Yahya, Amelia Nur
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v7i3.24397

Abstract

This study develops a SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered) model to model the spread of COVID-19 by adding the use of health masks, vaccinations, quarantines, and asymptomatic compartments. The model is analyzed using equilibrium point stability analysis and numerical simulation. Based on the system, two equilibrium points are obtained, namely the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (Ro). The stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point will be locally asymptotically stable if Ro<1. The numerical simulation results show that the disease will disappear from the population if Ro<1  and remain in the population if Ro>1 . Based on the sensitivity analysis, parameters with significant impact are the level of awareness of individuals in using health masks, vaccination rates, contact rates with symptomatic or asymptomatic infected individuals, and quarantine rates for symptomatic infected individuals.
Evaluation of the performance of TBATS and SARIMA methods in forecasting air temperature in Indonesia Aprilia, Ananda; Wijaya, Madona Yunita; Zulkifli, Dhea Urfina
Jurnal Absis: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Absis
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Universitas Pasir Pengaraian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30606/absis.v8i2.3052

Abstract

Indonesia is a tropical archipelago located along the equator, where air temperature patterns exhibit seasonal trends and unstable fluctuations. This instability can impact several sectors, including agriculture—making it difficult for farmers to determine planting and harvesting times—electricity demand, which increases during hotter periods, and public health, as erratic weather may reduce productivity and elevate the risk of diseases such as dehydration, asthma, and respiratory infections. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Trigonometric, Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA Errors, Trend, and Seasonal (TBATS) model and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model in forecasting air temperature in Indonesia. The dataset used comprises 2-meter air temperature records in Indonesia from January 1940 to August 2024, obtained from ECMWF. The evaluation method applied is cross-validation with a rolling basis. The results show that the RMSE for the TBATS model is 21.3843%, while the SARIMA model has an RMSE of 21.2958%. These results indicate that SARIMA has a slightly better performance than TBATS. However, both methods perform well in forecasting air temperature in Indonesia, as their RMSE percentages are within an acceptable range. This research is expected to contribute to the scientific literature on air temperature forecasting in Indonesia and encourage further studies on hybrid models that integrate TBATS and SARIMA. Additionally, it may support efforts to mitigate the adverse impacts of air temperature changes in the country.
The Analysis of Epidemic Dynamical Models for Dengue Transmission Considering the Mosquito Aquatic Phase Inayah, Nur; Manaqib, Muhammad; Fitriyati, Nina; Wijaya, Madona Yunita; Fiade, Andrew; Sari, Flori Ratna
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 6, Issue 3: September 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjbm.v6i3.29332

Abstract

This  study  generalizes the dengue  transmission model  by  considering the dynamics of the human population and  the Aedes  aegypti mosquito  population.  The  mosquito  population is  devided into  two  phases,  i.e.,  the aquatic  phase and the adult  phase.  From  the model,  we seek the disease-free  equilibrium, endemic  equilibrium, and  basic  reproduction number   (R0) points.    The  model  yields a  single   basic  reproduction number   which determines the system’s  behavior.   If  R0    1,  the disease-free  equilibrium is  locally  asymptotically stable, indicating that the disease  will die out.  Conversely, if R0    1, an endemic  equilibrium exists,  and  the disease may  persist  in the  population.    Next,   a  numerical simulation  is  performed  to  geometrically  visualize   the resulting analysis  and  also  to  simulate the  dengue   transmission in  DKI Jakarta   Province,  Indonesia.   The resulting  numerical simulation  supports our  analysis.   Meanwhile, the  simulation in  DKI Jakarta  Province suggests that  the dengue  fever  disappears after  60 days  from  the first  case appearance  after  controlling  the mosquito  population through fogging and the use of mosquito  larvae  repellent.  Lastly, the sensitivity analysis of R0   indicates  that  parameters   related  to  the  mosquito’s  aquatic   phase  have  a  strong   influence   on  dengue transmission, meaning that small  changes  in these parameters  can significantly increase or decrease the value  of R0  and thus the potential  for an outbreak.
DUAL RECIPROCITY BOUNDARY ELEMENT METHOD FOR SOLVING TIME-DEPENDENT WATER INFILTRATION PROBLEMS IN IMPERMEABLE CHANNEL IRRIGATION SYSTEMS Irene, Yanne; Manaqib, Muhammad; Alamsyah, Mochammad Rafli; Wijaya, Madona Yunita
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 4 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss4pp2583-2596

Abstract

The mathematical model of water infiltration in a furrow irrigation channel with an impermeable layer in homogeneous soil is formulated as a Boundary Value Problem (BVP) with the Modified Helmholtz Equation as the governing equation and mixed boundary conditions. The purpose of this study is to solve the infiltration problem using the Dual Reciprocity Boundary Element Method (DRBEM). The results show that the highest values of suction potential and water content are located beneath the permeable channel, while the lowest values are found at the soil surface outside the channel and beneath the impermeable layer. The values of suction potential and water content increase over time t and converge, indicating stability in the infiltration process. These findings align well with real-world scenarios, demonstrating that the developed mathematical model and its numerical solution using DRBEM accurately illustrate the time-dependent water infiltration process in impermeable furrow irrigation channels.
The Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia Wijaya, Madona Yunita
Kesmas Vol. 17, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Indonesia is among the countries affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and DKI Jakarta Province recorded the highest number of deaths. This study aimed to analyze the excess mortality across five administrative cities in Jakarta stratified by gender to assess the pandemic impact on mortality. The monthly mortality data from January 2018 to December 2020 was obtained through government sources. This data helped to measure excess mortality by estimating the baseline mortality had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. The analysis used a linear mixed model because of its ease and flexibility in forecasting subject-specific mortality. The results showed 13,507 or 35% excess deaths in Jakarta [95% CI: 11,636 to 15,236] between June and December 2020. The excess numbers were found relatively higher among men than women. Furthermore, Jakarta has underreported the COVID-19 deaths at least seven times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths.
Co-Authors Achmad Reza Fahcruroji Aisyah Muhayani Alamsyah, Mochammad Rafli Alkadrie, Syarifah Syila Andrew Fiade Aprilia, Ananda Bisyri, M. Alvi Devi Ila Octaviyani Hasanah, Sri Indriati Hidayat, Afnenda Rachmalia Inna, Suma Iqbal Rachadi Irene, Yanne Irma Fauziah Jasmin Nur Hanifa Khasanah, Dwi Windari Nur Kurnia, Hafsah Laili Nahlul Farih MAHMUDI Mahmudi Mahmudi Mahmudi Mahmudi Maysun Maysun Maysun, Maysun Mega Maulina Muhammad Manaqib, Muhammad Nina Fitriyati Nina Fitriyati Nina Fitriyati Nur Inayah NURLIANA NURLIANA Ramadita, Mutiara Rizky Azriel Fahrezi Sari, Flori Ratna Suma’inna Suma’inna Yahya, Amelia Nur Yanne Irene Yanne Irene, Yanne Zulkifli, Dhea Urfina