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Tertiary Education, Investment, and Labor Force Participation as Determinants of Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Analysis, 1990–2023 Anisa, Aan; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8217

Abstract

The relationship between higher education and economic growth has been widely discussed, yet evidence from emerging economies such as Indonesia remains inconclusive, particularly when considering the interplay of education, investment, and labor market dynamics. This study seeks to address this gap by analyzing Indonesia’s economic performance from 1990 to 2023 using annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis reveals that tertiary education enrollment exerts a significant positive contribution to economic expansion (coefficient = 0.0118, p < 0.01), while investment demonstrates a robust growth-enhancing effect (coefficient = 0.3859, p < 0.01). By contrast, labor force participation shows a negative association (coefficient = –0.0164, p < 0.05), reflecting structural inefficiencies in the labor market. In the short horizon, investment delivers immediate and significant benefits (coefficient = 0.4016, p < 0.01), whereas changes in labor force participation appear statistically negligible. The error correction term (–0.4622, p < 0.01) further indicates a moderate pace of adjustment, with nearly 46% of disequilibria resolved annually. These results highlight the need for policies that strengthen higher education quality, sustain a favorable investment climate, and reform labor markets, thereby ensuring that Indonesia moves toward inclusive and sustainable development.
Pengaruh Harga Emas, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia Budiman, Dedi; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8261

Abstract

The main problem in the Indonesian capital market is the high volatility of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which is often influenced by both external and internal factors, making it difficult for investors to make investment decisions. This uncertainty raises questions about the extent to which macroeconomic variables, particularly gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate, affect the movement of the JCI. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is the primary indicator reflecting the performance of the Indonesian stock market. Its movement is heavily influenced by various macroeconomic variables, including gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. Gold serves as a safe-haven asset favored during periods of market instability, while interest rates and exchange rates reflect monetary conditions and domestic purchasing power. This study aims to analyze the effect of gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia. The method used is a quantitative approach with quarterly time series data from 2014 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the assistance of EViews 12 software. The estimation results of the ARDL model show that in the short run, gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate do not have a significant effect on the JCI, as the t-statistic values of each variable are smaller than the t-table at a 5% significance level. However, in the long run, gold prices and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect on the JCI with t-statistic values of 2.984417 and 2.634944, respectively, which exceed the t-table. This indicates that movements in gold prices as a safe-haven asset and fluctuations in the exchange rate contribute to JCI dynamics in the long run. Conversely, interest rates show no significant effect in either the short run or the long run. These findings emphasize the importance of considering certain macroeconomic variables in the long run as a basis for investment decision-making in the Indonesian capital market. Therefore, stable and predictable macroeconomic policies are essential to create a healthy investment climate in Indonesia.
Pengaruh Kemiskinan, Pengangguran dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Darsono, Darsono; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8262

Abstract

One of the main problems of Indonesia’s economy is the relatively low economic growth, which is often hampered by high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inflation. These conditions pose challenges in maintaining stability while promoting sustainable development. Economic growth is an important indicator in assessing the performance of a country’s development, which is influenced by various macroeconomic factors. This study aims to analyze the effect of poverty, unemployment, and inflation on Indonesia’s economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In addition, this research also identifies the adjustment mechanism through the error correction approach and analyzes the causal relationship among variables. The method used is secondary data analysis with a quantitative correlational approach. The model applied is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) based on time series data for the period 2014–2024, processed using EViews 12. The results show that in the long run, inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, with a coefficient value of –0.421 and t-statistic 3.12 > t-table 2.06 at a 5% significance level. Unemployment also has a negative but insignificant effect with a coefficient of –0.178 (t-statistic 1.44 < t-table), while poverty shows no significant effect with a coefficient of –0.095 (t-statistic 1.12 < t-table). In the short run, no significant effect of the three variables on economic growth is found. The error correction term (ECT) value of –0.639 is significant at the 5% level, indicating an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. The Granger causality analysis also indicates a bidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth. These findings emphasize that inflation is a key variable that must be controlled to maintain economic stability and foster long-term growth. Meanwhile, poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction policies need to be strengthened in order to have a more tangible impact on achieving sustainable economic growth.
The Effect of Consumption, Investment, and Government Expenditure on the Economic Growth of West Java Province Sihotang, Erika Agustiani; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1932

Abstract

The trajectory of economic expansion in West Java is contingent upon three cardinal determinants: household consumption, capital investment, and fiscal expenditure. Consumption propels aggregate demand for commodities and services, investment augments productive capacity, while governmental disbursement, particularly directed toward infrastructural advancement and social initiatives, engenders employment prospects and elevates communal welfare. This paper seeks to scrutinize the ramifications of consumption, investment, and fiscal spending on the economic progression of West Java Province throughout the 2020–2024 interval. The investigation employs a Secondary Data Analysis (SDA) paradigm underpinned by a quantitative orientation. The empirical sample encompasses 27 regencies/municipalities within West Java Province, delineated through a saturated sampling modality. The collated data were subjected to panel data econometric techniques utilizing the EViews 12 platform. Findings shed light that consumption, investment, and governmental expenditure exert discernible influences upon economic growth, albeit with heterogeneous magnitudes across territorial units. In conclusion, these three variables manifest statistically significant bearings on West Java’s economic development, though the intensity of their effects diverges among regions.
The Effect of Economic Growth, Investment and Unemployment on Poverty in Sulawesi Island from 2010 to 2024 Saputri, Desti; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1936

Abstract

Poverty remains an obstacle that continues to disrupt social welfare among communities on the island of Sulawesi. The objectives of this study are to determine the long-term effects of economic growth, investment and unemployment on poverty in Sulawesi Island; to examine the short-term effects in each province in Sulawesi Island; to determine whether there is an error correction adjustment mechanism; and to determine whether there is a causal relationship between economic growth and poverty. This study uses the Secondary Data Analysis (SDA) method with a quantitative correlational approach and uses the ARDL Panel analysis model. The study's outcomes reveal that economic growth, investment, and unemployment significantly reduce poverty across Sulawesi Island when examined over extended periods. Short-term provincial variations emerge as follows: North Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi experience positive effects from all three factors. In South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, economic growth and investment demonstrate negative effects, whereas unemployment shows positive effects. Gorontalo exhibits positive effects from economic growth and unemployment, though investment produces negative effects. West Sulawesi presents a mixed pattern, with economic growth reducing poverty while investment and unemployment increase it. Although error correction adjustments function across all provinces, only West Sulawesi demonstrates statistically significant adjustment processes. There is a causal relationship between economic growth and poverty.  Equitable economic growth and investment can certainly be felt by the poor, thus opening up opportunities to increase productivity, and vice versa. Meanwhile, unemployment certainly has a significant impact on poverty.
Analysis of the Impact of Unemployment Rates on Economic Growth in Java: The ARDL Panel Approach in Current Economic Dynamics Ramadhan, Alfa; Hidayat, Asep Munir; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT, ACCOUNTING, GENERAL FINANCE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ISSUES Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): DECEMBER
Publisher : Transpublika Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55047/marginal.v5i1.1937

Abstract

Economic growth plays an important role in the development of a country and the welfare of its people. One indicator that influences economic growth is the unemployment rate, which can reduce productivity and cause social problems. This research aims to analyze the long-term and short-term effects of unemployment rate, investment, inflation, and Human Development Index (HDI) on economic growth in the provinces of Java Island, as well as to assess the long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) in each region. This research uses secondary data analysis with a correlational quantitative approach. The research results show that in the long term, unemployment rate, investment, inflation, and HDI have a significant influence on economic growth. In the short term, the influence between variables differs across provinces: East Java shows significant influence from all variables, Central Java is influenced by unemployment rate, inflation, and HDI, while DKI Jakarta is influenced by unemployment rate and investment. Banten, West Java, and DIY do not show significant influence in the short term. The long-term adjustment mechanism (Error Correction Term) is significant in East Java, but not significant in other provinces. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that macroeconomic variables have different influences across regions in Java Island, with East Java as the province that is most consistent in achieving long-term economic growth stability. The results of this research provide important implications for the formulation of region-based economic policies that consider the differences in characteristics and economic responses across provinces.