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All Journal Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang AGRISAINTIFIKA Jurnal Ilmu-ilmu Pertanian bit-Tech International Journal of Business, Humanities, Education and Social Sciences (IJBHES) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi MARISEKOLA: Jurnal Matematika Riset Edukasi dan Kolaborasi LEARNING : Jurnal Inovasi Penelitian Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran AGRIEKSTENSIA VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Agrifo: Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh EDUCATIONAL: Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan dan Pengajaran
Esra Rombeallo
Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Hubungan Antara Efikasi Diri dan Kemampuan Numerik dengan Hasil Belajar Siswa Materi Persamaan Kuadrat Esra Rombeallo; Vivian E. Regar; Aaltje S. Pangemanan
MARISEKOLA: Jurnal Matematika Riset Edukasi dan Kolaborasi Vol. 3 No. 2: Oktober 2022
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Negeri Manado

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53682/marisekola.v3i2.1177

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan dan signifikansi antara: 1) Efikasi diri dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat. 2) Kemampuan numerik dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat. 3) Efikasi diri dan kemampuan numerik dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode survei bentuk korelasional. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah siswa kelas IX SMP Negeri 3 Tondano. Teknik pengambilan sampel menggunakan simple random sampling dengan jumlah sampel 32 siswa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 1) Efikasi diri memiliki hubungan linear positif yang signifikan dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat dengan koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,362 dan model hubungan  dengan kontribusi efikasi diri terhadap hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat sebesar 13,10%. 2) Kemampuan numerik memiliki hubungan linear positif yang signifikan dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat dengan koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,881 dan model hubungan  dengan kontribusi kemampuan numerik terhadap hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat sebesar 77,62%. 3) Efikasi diri dan kemampuan numerik memiliki hubungan linear positif yang signifikan dengan hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat dengan koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,893 dan model hubungan  dengan kontribusi efikasi diri dan kemampuan numerik terhadap hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat sebesar 79,74%. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini disimpulkan bahwa efikasi diri dan kemampuan numerik secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi hasil belajar siswa materi persamaan kuadrat.
Pemodelan dan Prediksi Pola Musiman Menggunakan Holt-Winters Pangruruk, Thesya Atarezcha; Mangiri, Nalto Batty; Rombeallo, Esra; Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm391

Abstract

Samarinda City, with its tropical climate, experiences significant variations in rainfall throughout the year. This instability has the potential to cause impacts such as flooding, disruptions in the agricultural sector, and damage to infrastructure. This study aims to analyze and forecast the seasonal rainfall patterns in Samarinda City by applying the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method based on a multiplicative model. Monthly rainfall data were analyzed to identify stationarity properties in both mean and variance. The results indicate that the data are stationary in the mean but not in the variance, thus justifying the use of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing model. Parameter estimation yielded alpha , beta , and gamma values of 1 each, with a MAPE of 50%, indicating a moderate level of accuracy. Despite the relatively high error rate, the model remains effective in illustrating seasonal patterns, which can be useful for preliminary water resource management planning in the region
Peran Bidang Pertanian dalam Pembangunan Wilayah Kabupaten Bener Meriah (Pendekatan Location Quotient dan Shift Share Analysis) Meyranti, Risky; Rombeallo, Esra; Wahyuni, Dwi
Agrifo : Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Malikussaleh - Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in supporting economic resilience. In Bener Meriah Regency, Aceh Province, agriculture serves as the main pillar of the economy, with the majority of the population working as farmers and possessing significant potential in the horticulture and plantation sub-sectors, particularly coffee. This study aims to analyze the role of the agricultural sector in regional development in Bener Meriah Regency, identify its status as a base sector, and determine leading commodities with development potential. The research uses secondary data from the BPS, the Agriculture and Plantation Office, the BAPPEDA, and other supporting literature. The analysis employs the Location Quotient (LQ) method to determine the base sector and Shift Share Analysis (SSA) to assess sector competitiveness and growth. The results show that the agricultural sector had an average LQ value of 1.80 during the 2013–2017 period, indicating it is a base sector with a production surplus that can be marketed outside the region. Positive Proportional Shift and Differential Shift values indicate significant growth at both the regency and provincial levels. Corn and coffee were identified as leading base commodities, with Gayo coffee having a high competitive advantage in both domestic and international markets. These findings highlight that strengthening the agricultural sector, through the development of leading commodities and sustainable management, can improve the welfare of the people in Bener Meriah Regency.
ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE (Coffea arabica) GROWTH UNDER THE SUREN (Toona sureni) SHADE TREE IN GENTENG VILLAGE, SUKASARI DISTRICT, SUMEDANG REGENCY Darliana, Ina; Ryadi, Giga; Wahyuni, Dwi; Meyranti, Risky; Rombeallo, Esra; Hapsari, Saprilian Stya
Agrisaintifika: Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Pertanian Vol. 9 No. 3 (2025): Agrisaintifika
Publisher : Universitas Veteran Bangun Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32585/ags.v9i3.7502

Abstract

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is one of the leading plantation commodities whose growth is strongly influenced by environmental conditions, particularly the availability of shade from canopy trees. This study was conducted to analyze the influence of suren trees (Toona sureni) on the growth of Arabica coffee of the Ateng Super variety in Genteng Village, Sukasari District, Sumedang Regency. The research was carried out in April–May 2025 on a 0.7 ha community owned land with a sampling intensity of 15%. The observed parameters included total height, clear bole height, and diameter of suren shade trees, as well as the number and length of productive branches of coffee plants. Data were analyzed using classical assumption tests and multiple regression with t-tests through RStudio software.The results showed that the morphological characteristics of suren trees total height, clear bole height, and diameter did not directly influence the number or length of productive branches of Arabica coffee. Nevertheless, the presence of suren as a shade tree played an important role in creating a microclimate conducive to coffee growth. Microclimate observations indicated that suren shade could maintain ideal temperature and humidity ranges, namely 22–24°C and 72–83%, thereby helping stabilize the growing environment for coffee plants. With these capabilities, suren trees are considered suitable as shade species in Arabica coffee agroforestry systems. Their presence does not hinder coffee plant growth; instead, they contribute to establishing optimal environmental conditions for vegetative development and overall plant productivity. Keywords: Agroforestry, Coffea arabica, Shade tree, Rstudio, Suren
Stock Price Forecasting of Meta Platforms Inc (META) Using ARIMA Method Esra Rombeallo; Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk
bit-Tech Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): bit-Tech
Publisher : Komunitas Dosen Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32877/bt.v8i2.3055

Abstract

This study examines the application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method in forecasting the stock price of Meta Platforms Inc. (META) using historical time series data from 2021 to 2025. The main objective is to identify the best-fit ARIMA model and evaluate its predictive accuracy in capturing stock price dynamics. Data preprocessing was conducted through differencing to achieve stationarity, followed by model identification using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation analysis. Among several candidate models, ARIMA (2, 2, 1) was selected as the most appropriate, supported by the lowest Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value of 530.9496 and favorable diagnostic tests. Residual analysis indicated no significant autocorrelation and normally distributed errors, confirming the model’s adequacy. Further accuracy evaluation demonstrated that ARIMA (2, 2, 1) achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 32.49 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.07%, indicating reliable forecasting performance. These findings underscore the effectiveness of ARIMA in modeling linear stock price patterns and offer valuable insights for investors and analysts in short- to medium-term decision-making. The practical significance of forecasting META’s stock price lies in the company’s strategic position within the global technology ecosystem, where accurate predictions serve as a crucial foundation for risk management, portfolio development, and policy formulation in highly volatile markets. Nevertheless, limitations persist, as ARIMA is unable to account for nonlinear dynamics or external shocks.  Future studies are recommended to integrate hybrid models, such as ARIMA-LSTM, or macroeconomic indicators to enhance forecasting accuracy.
EVALUASI KINERJA DOSEN OLEH MAHASISWA: ANALISIS PERSEPSI MAHASISWA TERHADAP MUTU PEMBELAJARAN DI PROGRAM STUDI MANAJEMEN PERTANIAN LAHAN KERING Esra Rombeallo; Deborah Tirtania Chrisna Seko; Risky Meyranti; Reny Wulandari
EDUCATIONAL : Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan & Pengajaran Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Pendidikan dan Penelitian Indonesia (P4I)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51878/educational.v6i2.9982

Abstract

Student Evaluation of Teaching (SET) is a fundamental internal quality assurance instrument in higher education systems. This study aims to: (1) analyze student perceptions of lecturer performance at the Dryland Agricultural Management (MPLK) Study Program, Politeknik Pertanian Negeri Kupang for the 2025/2026 academic period, based on 22 performance indicators; (2) identify strength dimensions and areas requiring improvement; and (3) formulate data-driven strategic recommendations for sustainable learning quality development. Data were collected through an online Likert-scale questionnaire (1-5) covering five dimensions: discipline, pedagogical competence, communication skills, technology utilization, and fairness in assessment. A total of 55 student respondents evaluated 14 lecturers. Descriptive analysis results show a grand mean of 4.74 (Very Good category), with 13 lecturers (92.9%) rated Very Good and 1 lecturer (7.1%) rated Good. The highest-rated indicators were teaching methods and ability to provide relevant examples (4.84), while the relatively lower indicators were schedule adherence (4.58) and educational technology utilization (4.65). These findings confirm that the study program maintains high and consistent pedagogical standards, yet requires further development in digital literacy and schedule discipline management. Recommendations include organizing regular digital competency workshops, establishing structured schedule communication mechanisms, developing peer learning programs based on best practices, and consistently implementing SET as an integral part of the quality assurance cycle.
PANEL DATA MODELING OF THE POOR POPULATION IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA: THE ROLE OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX AND GROSS REGIONAL DOMESTIC PRODUCT Esra Rombeallo; Risky Meyranti; Dwi Wahyuni
Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Vol 13, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Publisher : Department Statistics, Faculty Mathematics and Natural Science, UNIMUS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jsunimus.13.2.2025.98-109

Abstract

Kemiskinan adalah masalah yang kompleks dan multidimensi, yang mencakup masalah pendapatan dan ketidakmampuan untuk mengakses hak-hak dasar (misalnya pendidikan, perawatan kesehatan, perlindungan sosial). Analisis regresi data panel merupakan metode yang tepat untuk memeriksa masalah kemiskinan, karena mengintegrasikan data cross-sectional dan time series. Penelitian sebelumnya biasanya hanya menggunakan satu jenis metode regresi data panel. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) dan pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) terhadap jumlah orang miskin di kabupaten/kota di provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur menggunakan panel data regresi selama periode 2022-2024. Common Effect Model (CEM), Random Effect Model (REM), dan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) dilakukan dalam penelitian ini. Model dipilih menggunakan uji Chow, uji Hausman, uji Lagrangian Multiplier. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Random Efffect Model (REM) adalah metode yang paling tepat dengan persamaan yang diestimasi. Berdasarkan metode REM, IPM mempunyai pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah orang miskin, yang menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan pembangunan manusia berkontribusi terhadap kemiskinan. Sebaliknya, pertumbuhan PDRB memiliki efek positif namun tidak signifikan secara statistik, yang menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi itu sendiri tidak mungkin dapat mengurangi kemiskinan tanpa kebijakan yang adil dan pembangunan yang inklusif. Studi-studi mendatang dapat mempertimbangkan untuk mengintegrasikan variabel-variabel sosioekonomi tambahan guna memberikan wawasan yang lebih mendalam tentang dinamika kemiskinan, serta mengeksplorasi pendugaan alternatif dalam metodologi REM.
Digital Literacy and Self-Directed English Learning Behaviors among Generation Z Students in Vocational Animal Health Gadis Kartika Pratiwi; Esra Rombeallo; Rahayu Asmadini Rosa; Ni Wayan Apsari Shantika Pratistha
Jurnal Internasional Bisnis, Humaniora, Pendidikan dan Ilmu Sosial Vol 8 No 1 (2026): International Journal of Business, Humanities, Education and Social Sciences
Publisher : Universitas Teknologi Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46923/ijbhes.v8i1.676

Abstract

The rapid integration of digital technology in education makes it essential to examine how digital literacy influences students’ learning behaviors, particularly among Generation Z who are often assumed to be inherently digitally competent. However, previous studies tend to emphasize technical skills and access, while overlooking how these competencies translate into autonomous learning practices. This study addresses this gap by investigating the relationship between digital literacy and self-directed English learning among first-year students of the Animal Health Study Program in a vocational higher education context. Using a descriptive quantitative design, data were collected through a structured questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive statistics to identify patterns across digital skills, exposure, and learning behaviors. The analysis involved categorizing responses into key dimensions and interpreting trends to answer the research questions. The findings reveal a discrepancy between high digital exposure and low engagement in autonomous English learning, highlighting that digital familiarity does not necessarily foster independent learning. This study contributes by emphasizing the need to integrate critical digital literacy and learner autonomy in instructional design. Future research is recommended to employ inferential analysis and mixed methods to further explore this relationship and to develop more effective pedagogical strategies.
Forecasting the Consumer Price Index with Holt-Winters: A Comparative Study of Ordinary Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood Estimation Esra Rombeallo; Marvin Jecson Pandu
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 14 Issue 1 April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v14i1.37783

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial macroeconomic indicator reflecting regional inflationary pressures. This study aims to compare the performance of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) methods in estimating Holt-Winters model parameters for forecasting the CPI of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Province. Using monthly data from January 2021 to December 2025, the research evaluates two primary approaches: conventional OLS based Holt-Winters models and the MLE based Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS) framework. Model performance was assessed using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate that the MLE based approach significantly outperforms OLS; the multiplicative ETS model achieved the lowest MAPE of 0.57%, proving far more accurate than the OLS based Holt-Winters models, which yielded error rates exceeding 50%. A 12-month forecast for 2026 projects NTT CPI to increase moderately from 107.38 to approximately 109.54, indicating controlled inflationary pressure. This study affirms the superiority of the MLE approach in generating precise parameters for economic data exhibiting seasonal patterns.
ANALISIS KEPUASAN MAHASISWA TERHADAP LAYANAN ADMINISTRASI PROGRAM STUDI: STUDI KASUS PROGRAM STUDI MANAJEMEN PERTANIAN LAHAN KERING Esra Rombeallo; Risky Meyranti; Deborah Tirtania Chrisna Pake Seko
LEARNING : Jurnal Inovasi Penelitian Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Pendidikan dan Penelitian Indonesia (P4I)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51878/learning.v6i2.9804

Abstract

Administrative service quality is a strategic component supporting the success of higher education. This study aims to analyze student satisfaction levels with administrative services at Dryland Agricultural Management Study Program, using a descriptive quantitative approach based on the SERVQUAL model. The data were collected through a structured 5-point Likert scale questionnaire, involving 32 active students as respondents, using total sampling. The instrument consisted of 10 items covering dimensions of service speed, ease of information access, staff friendliness, staff dedication, timeliness, ease of meeting staff, waiting duration, complaint handling, service consistency, and overall satisfaction. The overall mean satisfaction score was 4.42 out of 5 (Satisfied category). The highest aspects were staff dedication (M = 4.59) and staff friendliness (M = 4.53), both are in the Very Satisfied category, while the lowest were waiting duration satisfaction and complaint handling (M = 4.28). A total of 88.75% of all ratings fell in the Satisfied and Very Satisfied categories. These findings indicate that MPLK administrative services generally meet students’ expectations although improvement opportunities remain in the responsiveness dimension, particularly queue management and complaint handling mechanisms. ABSTRAKKualitas layanan administrasi merupakan komponen strategis dalam mendukung keberhasilan penyelenggaraan pendidikan tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis tingkat kepuasan mahasiswa terhadap layanan administrasi Program Studi Manajemen Pertanian Lahan Kering (MPLK) menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif berbasis model SERVQUAL. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui kuesioner terstruktur berskala Likert 5 poin yang melibatkan 32 mahasiswa aktif sebagai responden dengan metode total sampling. Instrumen terdiri dari 10 butir pertanyaan yang mencakup dimensi kecepatan pelayanan, kemudahan akses informasi, keramahan staf, kesungguhan staf, ketepatan waktu, kemudahan bertemu staf, waktu tunggu, penanganan keluhan, konsistensi layanan, dan kepuasan keseluruhan. Hasil analisis menunjukkan rata-rata keseluruhan kepuasan mahasiswa sebesar 4,42 dari skala 5 (kategori Puas). Aspek tertinggi adalah kesungguhan staf (M = 4,59) dan keramahan staf (M = 4,53), keduanya berkategori Sangat Puas. Aspek dengan nilai terendah adalah kepuasan terhadap waktu tunggu dan penanganan keluhan (M = 4,28). Sebesar 88,75% dari total penilaian berada pada kategori Puas dan Sangat Puas. Temuan ini mengindikasikan layanan administrasi Program Studi MPLK secara umum telah memenuhi ekspektasi mahasiswa, namun masih terdapat ruang perbaikan pada dimensi responsivitas, khususnya manajemen antrian dan mekanisme penanganan keluhan.
Co-Authors Aaltje S. Pangemanan Deborah Tirtania Chrisna Pake Seko Deborah Tirtania Chrisna Seko Dwi Wahyuni Gadis Kartika Pratiwi Hapsari, Saprilian Stya Ina Darliana Mangiri, Nalto Batty Marvin Jecson Pandu Ni Wayan Apsari Shantika Pratistha Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura Pangruruk , Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk Rahayu Asmadini Rosa Rahayu Asmadini Rosa Reny Wulandari Risky Meyranti Ryadi, Giga Saprilian Stya Hapsari Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk Vivian E. Regar Yustus Serani No Mbeong