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All Journal VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Agrifo: Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh
Rombeallo, Esra
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

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Pemodelan dan Prediksi Pola Musiman Menggunakan Holt-Winters Pangruruk, Thesya Atarezcha; Mangiri, Nalto Batty; Rombeallo, Esra; Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm391

Abstract

Samarinda City, with its tropical climate, experiences significant variations in rainfall throughout the year. This instability has the potential to cause impacts such as flooding, disruptions in the agricultural sector, and damage to infrastructure. This study aims to analyze and forecast the seasonal rainfall patterns in Samarinda City by applying the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method based on a multiplicative model. Monthly rainfall data were analyzed to identify stationarity properties in both mean and variance. The results indicate that the data are stationary in the mean but not in the variance, thus justifying the use of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing model. Parameter estimation yielded alpha , beta , and gamma values of 1 each, with a MAPE of 50%, indicating a moderate level of accuracy. Despite the relatively high error rate, the model remains effective in illustrating seasonal patterns, which can be useful for preliminary water resource management planning in the region
Peran bidang pertanian dalam pembangunan wilayah Kabupaten Bener Meriah (pendekatan location quotient dan shift share analysis) Meyranti, Risky; Rombeallo, Esra; Wahyuni, Dwi
Agrifo : Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh Vol. 10 No. 2 (2025): November 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Malikussaleh - Indonesia

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Abstract

The agricultural sector is a sector that has an important role in regional development and potential sector that contributes to economy growth in region. This research was conducted at Bener Meriah Regency. This research, the aims to analyze the role of the agricultural sector in development of Bener Meriah Regency and identify several commodities in the agricultural sector that influence the development of Bener Meriah Regency. Data analysis used in this study is the Location Quetion (LQ) and Shift Share Analysis (SSA) analysis. The agricultural sector becomes the leading sector and agricultural commodities into superior commodities can be seen from the LQ value greater than one. The type of data in this study is secondary data. The result of this study showes that the agricultural sector is a basic sector that plays an important role in the development of the Bener Meriah Regency and the economic support sector of the Bener Meriah Regency seen from its contribution to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) of Bener Meriah Regency. Leading commodities that play a role in the development of Bener Meriah Regency are corn and coffee because from the LQ value and also the value of SSA which is positive.
Co-Authors Dwi Wahyuni Mangiri, Nalto Batty Meyranti, Risky Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura Pangruruk , Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk