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Muhammad Athoillah
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kampus II Universitas PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya Jl. Dukuh Menanggal XII, Surabaya 60234 Jawa Timur, Indonesia.
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J Statistika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teori Dan Aplikasi Statistika
Published by Universitas PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya
ISSN : 20890028     EISSN : 26547511     DOI : https://doi.org/10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2
Core Subject : Economy, Science,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance
This journal publishes scientific articles in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews on various aspects related to the field of statistics, scientific data and their applications. Such as Computing, Time Series, Multivariate, Data Mining, Biostatistics, Survival Analysis, Econometrics, Spatial Analysis, Actuarial, Quality Control, Bayesian Analysis, Development Research in Statistics, Natural Language Processing, Applied Mathematics, Applied Statistics. However, the editorial team does not rule out other topics in the fields of statistics and scientific data.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 278 Documents
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Hubungan Faktor Demografis dengan Kejadian Malaria di Kecamatan Wewewa Timur: Pendekatan Analisis Chi-Square
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a7907

Abstract

Pendekatan chi-square dalam analisis faktor risiko kesehatan telah menjadi topik yang menarik dan relevan dalam penelitian terkini. Malaria, sebagai penyakit infeksi menular yang ditularkan melalui gigitan nyamuk Anopheles betina, masih menjadi ancaman bagi masyarakat di beberapa daerah di Indonesia, termasuk Kecamatan Wewewa Timur. Meskipun kasus malaria di kecamatan ini mengalami penurunan dari tahun 2018 hingga 2021, namun pada tahun 2022, kasusnya kembali mengalami peningkatan. Dalam upaya untuk memahami lebih lanjut tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kejadian malaria di Kecamatan Wewewa Timur, penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan chi-square(χ²)  yang termasuk dalam uji non-parametrik digunakan untuk menentukan apakah terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara distribusi frekuensi yang diamati (observed frequencies) dengan distribusi frekuensi yang diharapkan (expected frequencies) dalam satu atau lebih kategori melibatkan 400 data primer yang diambil di wilayah tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat lima faktor yang secara signifikan berhubungan dengan kejadian malaria di Kecamatan Wewewa Timur, yaitu jenis kelamin, usia, pekerjaan, penggunaan kelambu, dan tingkat pendidikan. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan yang berharga dalam perumusan kebijakan dan strategi penanggulangan malaria yang lebih efektif dan tepat sasaranTop of Form
Penerapan Model Arfima-Garch Menggunakan Variasi Estimasi Parameter Pembeda D Pada Data Long Memory
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8041

Abstract

Emas menjadi salah satu aset keuangan bagi negara dan menjadi komponen cadangan moneter global untuk perdagangan dan perlindungan ketika menghadapi krisis keuangan secara tiba-tiba. Beberapa data ekonomi sering mengalami ketergantungan atau dependensi jangka panjang (long memory). Salah satu model yang mampu mengatasi masalah tersebut adalah model Autotegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA). Ada beberapa metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan estimasi parameter pembeda d yaitu metode Geweke and Porter Hudak dan metode Rescaled Range Statistics (R/S). Pada beberapa tipe data runtun waktu terkadang mengalami pengelompokan volatilitas (residual tidak konstan). Metode yang dapat digunakan untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut adalah metode Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk memodelkan harga emas antam produksi PT. Aneka Tambang menggunakan metode ARFIMA-GARCH serta membandingkan metode estimasi parameter pembeda d terbaik dari model tersebut. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan model terbaik dilihat dari nilai AIC untuk dgph = 0, 105 adalah ARFIMA(1,d,1)-GARCH(1,1) dan model terbaik untuk dR/S = 0, 288 adalah ARFIMA(1,d,1)-GARCH(1,1). Tingkat akurasi peramalan didasarkan pada nilai MAPE. Nilai error validasi model ARFIMA-GARCH dengan dgph = 0, 105 adalah MAPE=3,474%, sedangkan model ARFIMA-GARCH dengan dR/S = 0, 288 adalah MAPE=3,444%.
Model Persamaan Struktural Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kepuasan Masyarakat Dalam Pemeriksaan Kesehatan di UPTD Puskesmas Pasir Putih Sawangan Depok
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8042

Abstract

Salah satu faktor penting kepuasan masyarakat pada layanan kesehatan adalah mutu layanan. Mutu pelayanan yang berhubungan dengan medis, mewakili tingkat kesempurnaan pelayanan medis melalui terciptanya rasa kepuasan pada setiap masyarakat. Pada penelitian ini kepuasan masyarakat diukur dengan adanya mutu pelayanan yang mempunyai kaitan dengan kualitas pelayanan dan kompetensi pegawai di Puskesmas Pasir Putih kota Depok. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh langsung kualitas pelayanan terhadap kepuasaan masyarakat, untuk mengetahui pengaruh langsung kompetensi pegawai terhadap kepuasan masyarakat, untuk mengetahui pengaruh tidak langsung antara kualitas pelayanan terhadap kepuasan masyarakat melalui kompetensi pegawai, dan pengaruh total antara kualitas pelayanan, kompetensi pegawai terhadap kepuasan masyarakat. Jumlah sampel pada penelitian ini adalah 379 responden yang ditentukan dengan menggunakan teknik accidental sampling, dimana responden yang dipilih  adalah masyarakat yang mendapatkan pelayanan kesehatan di UPTD Puskesmas Pasir Putih. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Berdasarkan hasil analisis diperoleh bahwa terdapat pengaruh langsung kualitas pelayanan terhadap kepuasan masyarakat, terdapat pengaruh langsung kompetensi pegawai terhadap kepuasan masyarakat, terdapat pengaruh tidak langsung antara kualitas pelayanan masyarakat melalui kompetensi pegawai, dan terdapat pengaruh total antara kualitas pelayanan dan kompetensi pegawai terhadap masyarakat di UPTD Puskesmas Pasir Putih.
Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel Harga Beras di Wilayah Indonesia Bagian Barat
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8061

Abstract

Beras merupakan kebutuhan pokok atau utama bagi masyarakat di Indonesia. Kenaikan harga beras berpengaruh sangat signifikan dalam berbagai aspek yang dapat mempengaruhi kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah. Sentra beras nasional didominasi oleh wilayah Indonesia bagian barat. Pemenuhan jumlah beras di setiap wilayah dilakukan oleh sentra beras melalui pendistribusian ke wilayah-wilayah lain. Harga pada wilayah yang merupakan sentra beras mempengaruhi harga beras di setiap wilayah-wilayah sekitarnya. Oleh karena itu, peramalan harga beras dibutuhkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan pemodelan harga beras dengan metode Regresi Data Panel di Wilayah Indonesia Bagian Barat. Model Regresi Data Panel adalah hasil dari penggabungan data cross section dan time series. Dalam penelitian ini, pemodelan dibangun dengan menggunakan data dari semua provinsi di Indonesia bagian barat (cross sectional) pada beberapa tahun sebelumnya dengan tingkat bulanan (time series), sehingga pemilihan metode yang sesuai adalah menggunakan regresi data panel. Model Regresi Data Panel yang terpilih adalah REM (Random Effect Model) dengan rata-rata MAPE sebesar 3.28%. Pemodelan harga beras yang terbentuk dapat digunakan sebagai acuan dalam peramalan harga beras kedepannya, sehingga penentuan kebijakan ekonomi dapat dilakukan secara tepat.
Comparison of K-Means and K-Medoids Clustering for Grouping The Sub-Districts In Bojonegoro Regency Based On Educational Supporting Factors
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8079

Abstract

Education in Bojonegoro is currently still uneven. This is because efforts to equalize education that have been carried out have many obstacles. The obstacle that often occurs is that people who are in remote areas and far from urban areas have difficulty accessing education services. Therefore, regional grouping needs to be done so that the Bojonegoro district government can pay attention to regional clusters that need education improvement. This study used the K-Means and K-Medoids methods to group sub-districts in Bojonegoro district based on educational supporting factors. K-Means is one of the unsupervised learning methods used to analyze data by grouping. Meanwhile, K-Medoids is a partition grouping method that groups a set of n objects into a number of k clusters. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the Bojonegoro district Education Office in the form of data on education supporting factors which include the number of schools, the number of educators, and the number of learning groups (ROMBEL) in 2022 in each sub-district in Bojonegoro district. From the research results, it was found that the K-Means method was better than the K-Medoids method. The results of grouping using K-Means obtained as many as 5 clusters, cluster 1 consists of 1 sub-district, cluster 2 consists of 7 sub-districts, cluster 3 consists of 1 sub-district, cluster 4 consists of 12 sub-districts and cluster 5 consists of 7 sub-districts. Based on the characteristics of each cluster obtained, it is expected to be used as input for the Education office for equal distribution of education in Bojonegoro district.
Clustering Villages in the Mountain Areas in West Java Based on Tourism Potential Using K-Prototype Algorithm
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8167

Abstract

Cluster analysis is a multivariate analysis method used to group objects based on their similar characteristics. In general, in the clustering process only use numerical or categorical data. But, sometimes we also encounter cases that use both numerical and categorical data. Therefore, the algorithm that can be used is K-Prototype. K-Prototype is a development of K-Means that can be used on large data with numerical and categorical types. The basis of K-Prototype development is to measure the distance between the object and its centroid prototype. The number of prototypes depends on the number of clusters formed. In this study, researchers use this algorithm to group mountainous villages in West Java based on their tourism potential, in order to find out the potential that needs to be developed based on five components, namely Attractions, Access, Accommodation, Amenities and Awareness. Based on the Silhouette and McClain Index, the optimal number of clusters is two. Cluster 1 consists of 103 villages and cluster 2 consists of 703 villages. Cluster 1 are villages that are generally better in the Access, Awareness and Amenities, but are still lacking in the Attraction and Accommodation components compared to villages in cluster 2.
Analysis of the Timeliness of Graduation of FMIPA College KIP Students at Bengkulu University Using Binary Logistic Regression
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8233

Abstract

Previous studies that discuss the timeliness of graduating students are generally more focused on the student population as a whole, without considering the influence of specific scholarship programs such as KIP Kuliah. This study aims to obtain a model of the timeliness of student graduation and obtain factors that affect the timeliness of graduating KIP Kuliah students of FMIPA Bengkulu University using the Binary Logistic Regression method. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information for KIP Kuliah managers of Bengkulu University in improving the effectiveness of the KIP Kuliah scholarship program and helping KIP Kuliah students of FMIPA Bengkulu University to graduate on time. In this study, Binary Logistic Regression method is used because the response variable has a nominal binary scale. Based on the results of the discussion of the research conducted, a Binary Logistic Regression model of the timeliness of graduating KIP Kuliah students of FMIPA Bengkulu University is obtained with factors that have a significant influence on the timeliness of graduating KIP Kuliah students of FMIPA Bengkulu University is the origin of the S1-Physics, S1-Biology and S1-Statistics study programs and GPA. Then the classification results using Binary Logistic Regression have a classification accuracy rate of 77.97%. So it can be concluded that the classification of the timeliness of graduating students of FMIPA Bengkulu University in the Binary Logistic Regression model is good enough.
Fuzzy C-Means for Regional Clustering in East Java Province Based on Human Development Index Indicators
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8240

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) is the UN's key metric for gauging human advancement within a country, blending vital elements like per capita income, life expectancy, and education. In Indonesia, the HDI assesses societal well-being, with East Java's HDI lagging behind national and governmental targets despite mitigation efforts. To address this, the study utilizes Fuzzy C-Means clustering to classify East Java's regions based on HDI indicators, revealing five optimal groups via pseudo-F-statistic analysis. One-way MANOVA confirms variations among these groups, while One-Way ANOVA validates the significance of the four HDI indicators in categorization. The HDI-based categorization denotes Group 3 as high-status, Group 1 as low-status, Group 2 as moderately high-status, Group 4 as moderate, and Group 5 as moderately low-status. Consequently, it's advised that the government concentrates on improving low-HDI groups to uplift East Java's populace. This research can serve as a cornerstone for policymakers and stakeholders in their efforts to enhance the HDI in this region.
Kernel Nonparametric Regression Modeling with the Nadaraya-Watson Estimator (Case Study: Fertility in the Southern Sumatra Region)
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8248

Abstract

Fertility is a live birth, namely the release of a baby from a woman's womb with signs of life such as screaming, breathing, a throbbing heart, and so on. The source of this research data comes from the publication of the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study aims to model and predict fertility data in 2020 with kernel nonparametric regression using the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. The nonparametric kernel model shows the relationship between fertility (Y) and the percentage of underage women at first marriage , the percentage of women 15-49 years who do not use traditional KB or conventional methods , the number of active family planning participants   , the number of couples of childbearing age   , the percentage of the average length of schooling , and the total expenditure per capita    based on Gaussian kernel function and bandwidth values. Based on the results of the analysis, the independent variables that have a significant effect are   , , ,  on the dependent variable with the optimum bandwidth value of 0.490 and the value of R2 of 99.6%, and the MSE value of 0.332. Modeling fertility is important as it helps understand and predict population trends. It provides insights into the potential number of births in a population in the future. This information can be used for policy planning, including health, educations, and social policies.
Diversification of Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Stock Optimal Portfolio for the Period 2018-2023
J STATISTIKA: Jurnal Imiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Vol 16 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika
Publisher : Faculty of Science and Technology, Univ. PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36456/jstat.vol16.no2.a8339

Abstract

Investment is placing funds into an asset to gain profits in the future through changes in asset prices or capital gains. In Indonesia, stock investment, primarily through the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), is popular among the public. BEI offers various indices, including the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII), which has garnered significant attention. JII comprises stocks of companies that adhere to Sharia principles. In investment, careful analysis is crucial to avoid errors in stock selection. Diversification is a strategy that involves spreading investments across several stocks, aiming to maximize profits while minimizing risks. While the easiest way for investors to enter the stock market is by purchasing the best-performing single stock, relying solely on one stock can be risky if its price drops. This research compares investment outcomes between single-stock and diversified portfolios of two or three stocks, selected based on the Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen indices. The research analyzes the closing stock prices within the JII index from March 2018 to February 2023. The study results show that diversifying investments across multiple stocks can reduce investment risks, even though it may reduce profit potential.

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