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INDONESIA
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences
Published by Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
ISSN : 27235319     EISSN : 27235327     DOI : 10.18196/jerss
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
JERSS merupakan jurnal ilmiah yang dikelola Program Studi Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta. Jurnal ini berisikan penelitian-penelitian yang dilakukan oleh mahasiwa-mahasiswa dan berkolaborasi dengan para dosen dalam bidang studi ilmu ekonomi pembangunan. Pembahasan yang dilakukan dalam jurnal ini meliputi Ekonomi Moneter; Fiskal; Pariwisata; Sumberdaya Alam; Sumberdaya Manusia; Keuangan; Publik; dan lain sebagainya dalam lingkup studi ilmu ekonomi pembangunan.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 209 Documents
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How Regional Economic Growth, Population, and Manufacturing Value-Added Contribute to Regional Labor Force Participation Alfarisy, Muhammad Farid
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 2: August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v9i2.23220

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between manufacturing value-added, GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product), and population growth on the labor participation rate in the region. The sample comprises 16 provinces in total. It consists of 10 provinces that experienced economic growth rates lower than the national growth rate between 2017 and 2019. The remaining six provinces have economic growth that exceeded the average national economic growth from 2017 to 2019. These 6 provinces are located on Java Island, and the other 10 provinces are located outside Java Island. Thus, we also added the province location variable to our analysis. We employed panel data regression to estimate the data. This study finds that the region’s economic and population growth substantially impacts the region’s labor participation rate. While the manufacturing value-added, the labor productivity rate, and the location do not significantly affect the labor participation rate of the region. Since economic and population growth are significant factors influencing labor force participation, some government policies should prioritize promoting sustainable economic development and attracting people to the province. The result of the study on the effect of manufacturing value-added and labor productivity shows that it has no impact on labor participation rates. This suggests that policies aimed solely at boosting manufacturing output or labor productivity may not automatically translate into higher labor force participation. Policymakers should, therefore, diversify their focus to other sectors, such as services or technology, that might better encourage workforce engagement.
The Influence of Macroeconomic Indicators on Foreign Exchange Reserves in Indonesia Sukarniati, Lestari; Widara, Widara; Asmara, Gea Dwi
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 2: August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v9i2.24447

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic indicators such as exports, imports, inflation, exchange rates, and the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia during the 2010-2023 period. The research methodology employed is multiple linear regression analysis and the Error Correction Model (ECM) with monthly time series data. The results indicate that exports, inflation, and exchange rates significantly affect Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in the long run. Exports and exchange rates have a positive effect, while inflation also positively affects foreign exchange reserves. Conversely, the benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) has a significant adverse impact. In the short term, only inflation and exchange rate have a significant effect, negatively impacting foreign exchange reserves. This research contributes original value to the literature by integrating a broad set of macroeconomic indicators into a single, comprehensive model. This approach is seldom found in previous studies. Whereas earlier research typically assessed these variables in isolation or limited combinations, this study concurrently examines their collective impact within a consistent ECM framework over a 14-year monthly dataset. As such, this study enhances the current understanding of the short- and long-term macroeconomic dynamics affecting foreign exchange reserves and provides valuable insights for policymakers in formulating external sector strategies.
Analysis of Banking Stock Performance Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Tompo, Cherilyn Cristine; Sidjaja, Derrick Nelson; Thenikusuma, Arnold; Maichal, Maichal
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 2: August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v9i2.24972

Abstract

This study analyzes the performance differences of Indonesia’s banking sector stocks, represented by the Infobank15 index, before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using ANOVA and Post Hoc Testing, the study finds no significant differences in stock returns across these three periods despite the substantial economic disruption caused by the pandemic. Like other industries, the banking sector faced a downturn at the start of the pandemic but managed to recover. This finding underscores that the banking sector maintained stability across different periods due to the strong financial fundamentals, including consistent Non-Performing Loan (NPL) and Return on Assets (ROA) ratios throughout the pandemic. The government’s support, such as credit restructuring policies and digitalization of banking services, facilitated the sector’s adaptation to economic challenges, allowing for continued operations despite social restrictions. The study highlights that the banking sector’s ability to expand its digital services mitigated the crisis's immediate impacts and positioned it as an attractive option for investors seeking stability. This study offers insights for policymakers and adds to the literature on the banking sector’s resilience during global crises.
Determinants of Crime Rate: The Case from Regions of Mindanao, Philippines Cañada, Kathylene Mae C; Concon, Clarissa Mae Q; Magsayo, Lowella Joy T; Paculob, Rhealyn S; Capulong, Charlyn M; Teves, Maria Rizalia Y; Abing, Martha Joy J; Laygan, Resa Mae C
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 2: August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v9i2.25238

Abstract

This study examines the factors influencing crime rates across various regions in Mindanao, Philippines, from 2009 to 2022, addressing its economic and security challenges. Like many developing countries in Asia, the Philippines faces disparities in economic growth, with Mindanao lagging behind other areas in terms of development. This issue is further intensified by travel advisories from foreign governments, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, impacting tourism and foreign investment. By analyzing GRDP per capita, mean years of education, unemployment rate, urban population, police operating expenses, and police visibility, the research uses panel regression analysis to determine significant crime predictors. Results show that mean years of education have a considerable positive relationship with crime rates, suggesting that higher education levels may be linked to increased crime, particularly through the involvement of educated individuals in sophisticated crimes, such as white-collar crime or drug-related activities. Meanwhile, police visibility has a significant negative relationship with crime rates, indicating that a higher police presence is an effective deterrent, as criminals are reluctant to engage in criminal activities when a strong police presence is evident. Other variables, such as GRDP per capita, unemployment rate, urban population, and police operating expenses, were insignificant. These findings underscore the complexity of crime factors and the necessity for strategic police allocation and education reforms, providing insights for policymakers in addressing crime. The study’s implications extend beyond the Philippines, offering insights for other countries facing similar challenges in balancing economic growth and crime prevention.
Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy on Banking Credit Growth in Indonesia (2015-2023) Cendani, Marita Asri; Puspitasari, Inda Fresti
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 9 No. 2: August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v9i2.26548

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic shows that macroprudential policy is one of the crucial instruments in mitigating economic shocks and ensuring the financial system. This study examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on banking credit growth in Indonesia from 2015 to 2023 by analyzing the impact of the Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI), Minimum Reserve Requirement (GWM), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and Non-Performing Loans (NPL). This study aims to give regulators insights into optimizing policy combinations to mitigate financial risks while supporting sustainable economic growth. The results of panel data regression revealed that DTI and CAR significantly impact banking credit growth. In contrast, GWM and NPL didn’t have a significant effect. These findings emphasize the critical role of macroprudential policies in maintaining a balance between credit growth and financial stability, especially in times of economic uncertainty. This study contributes to policymakers and financial regulators optimizing macroprudential frameworks to enhance financial resilience and support sustainable credit distribution in Indonesia’s banking sector.
Analysis of Socio-Economic Factors on Stunting in North Sibalaya Village Sigi District Paembonan, Laendatu; Suirlan, Rita
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 10 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Stunting is a problem for developing countries, which is a condition or state of a body that is short or very short based on height for age, also describes a state of chronic malnutrition and children affected by stunting require a relatively long time to develop and recover to normal levels. in a situation where the child's height is normal for his age. In Sigi District, North Sibalaya Village, in terms of handling stunting, several programs or activities are carried out, including providing additional food, conducting healthcare, providing outreach about the negative effects of stunting on children. The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of the variables of mother's education, father's occupation, family income, mother's age, nutritional status on stunting in North Sibalaya Village. This research uses explanatory research method. The research sample consisted of 36 stunting toddler cases using purposive sampling technique. Data analysis used in this study used bivariate analysis through the Chi square test. The results showed that socio-economic factors (mother's education, father's occupation, family income, mother's age, nutritional status) had a significant relationship to stunting in North Sibalaya Village with a p-value <0.05.
The Effect of Governance, Education, and Economic Conditions on GDP in ASEAN Phandy, Angel; Yosal, Calista; Wilar, Felicia Brilianti; Putri, Telysia Tony; Adha, Wirdah Nur; Maichal, Maichal
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 10 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

This study investigates the effect of governance, education, and economic conditions on GDP in eight ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia—during the period 2006–2020. Governance is represented by the Corruption Perceptions Index and Ease of Doing Business indicators, while education and inflation are¬¬ used to reflect human capital and economic stability, respectively. Data were obtained from the World Bank and Transparency International. Using panel data regression, the study combined cross-sectional and time-series data. Based on the Chow test, the Common Effect Model (CEM) was identified as the most appropriate. Due to classical assumption violations, robust standard errors were employed to ensure reliable estimates. The results show that Ease of Doing Business, education, and inflation significantly influence GDP. An improved business environment and higher educational attainment contribute to economic growth, while controlled inflation ensures macroeconomic stability. Meanwhile, corruption showed no significant impact on GDP. The findings highlight the importance of improving governance quality, expanding access to quality education, and maintaining stable inflation to support sustained economic growth in ASEAN.
Innovation and Resilience in Philippine Cities: Post-Pandemic Economic Performance Through the CMCI Framework Estillore, Denmichael Neil C.; Medalla, Jerelyn B.
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 10 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

This study assesses how innovation and resiliency, as measured through the City and Municipality Competitiveness Index (CMCI) framework, affect the Philippine Cities’ post-pandemic economic performance. A panel-corrected standard error regression analysis was employed to analyze data from 146 Philippine cities covering the period from 2022 to 2024. Findings show that innovation exert significant positive effect on economic performance. Specifically, intellectual property registration and internet services significantly increase LSIR, confirming the importance of digital access and knowledge-based growth. Conversely, startup facilities revealed a negative association, likely due to high operational costs and underdeveloped ecosystems in Philippine cities. Moreover, findings show that resiliency have significant negative effect on economic performance. This is likely due to costly resiliency projects that may misallocate resources, thereby burdening fiscal capacity and local economy. Additionally, resiliency sub-indicators such as land-use planning, disaster planning, and utilities can significantly enhance economic performance. However, excessive complexity and high costs for these may strain fiscal budgets and hinder local economies. Emergency infrastructure, early warning systems, and resilience-related employed population showed a negative effect due to high upfront costs and resource diversion from revenue-generating activities. Furthermore, promoting innovation and implementing efficient resilience strategies without straining local revenues are necessary for Philippine cities towards sustainable post-pandemic recovery.
P2P Lending's True Impact on the Money Supply: An ARDL Analysis of Inflation Volatility and Monetary Policy Response in Indonesia Valentina, Dila; Aji, Tony Seno
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 10 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

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Abstract

This study investigates the influence of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, inflation, and the central bank interest rate (BI Rate) on Indonesia's broad money supply (M2) from 2019 to 2024. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis confirms a stable, long-term cointegrating relationship among the variables. The significant and negative error correction term indicates a rapid adjustment process of the money supply back towards its long-run equilibrium following any short-term deviations. The findings reveal distinct temporal effects. In the short term, P2P lending has a significant positive impact on the money supply, highlighting its role as an immediate source of liquidity. Conversely, the BI Rate demonstrates a powerful and highly significant short-term influence. Inflation, meanwhile, shows a marginally negative effect in the short run. When examining the long-term dynamics, the positive effect of P2P lending becomes statistically insignificant, suggesting its influence may not permanently alter the equilibrium level of the money supply. These results strongly support the endogenous money theory, positing that financial innovations like P2P lending actively participate in the money creation process outside of traditional banking channels. The study concludes that to maintain financial system stability amid ongoing digital transformation, it is crucial for regulators to expand macroprudential supervision to encompass fintech activities. Furthermore, it recommends the integration of non-bank credit variables into the monetary policy framework to ensure a more comprehensive and effective approach.

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