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Parameter: Journal of Statistics
Published by Universitas Tadulako
ISSN : -     EISSN : 27765660     DOI : https://doi.org/10.22487/27765660.2021.v1.i2
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics
Parameter: Journal of Statistics is a refereed journal committed to original research articles, reviews and short communications of Statistics and its applications.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 66 Documents
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FORECASTING INDONESIAN ISLAMIC BANK (BSI) SHARE PRICES USING THE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG METHOD Nurfitra; Sofia, Ayu
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2023.v3.i2.16920

Abstract

Shares were one of the most popular financial market instruments. In Indonesia, stock market activity continued to increase so that stock investment was in great demand by the public, especially in the banking sector. Indonesia had a majority Muslim population. Based on this, Indonesia had good potential in the field of Islamic finance, especially Islamic banking. One of the Islamic banks that had achieved positive performance was Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI). BSI's stock price every day from February 1, 2021, to January 11, 2023, tended to experience a downward trend and fluctuated, making it difficult for investors to see the prospects of a company in the future. For this reason, a forecasting technique was needed. A good forecasting method used for data with trend patterns both down and up was Cheng's Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) method. So, this study used Cheng's FTS method to predict BSI's share price in the future. The calculation of the accuracy of the prediction results in this study used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the forecasted value of BSI's share price for the period January 12, 2023, to January 31, 2023, was constant at 1,353.267 million with a MAPE value of 3.09%.
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF ROBUST ESTIMATION-S WITH TUKEY BISQUARE WEIGHTING ON POVERTY LEVEL ON SULAWESI ISLAND Saputri, Sandra; Nur'eni; Masyitah Meliyana R, Sitti
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2023.v3.i2.16923

Abstract

Poverty is a situation where a person experiences difficulty in meeting basic needs. There are several factors that influence poverty, including population, unemployment, gross regional domestic product, human development index, average years of schooling and labor force participation rate. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out regression analysis to determine the relationship between one variable and other variables. One method for estimating regression parameters is the least squares method. Some classic assumptions are not met because there are outlier data. Outliers are data that do not follow the overall distribution pattern, so a method is used that can overcome outliers, namely the S-estimation robust regression method with the Tukey bisquare weighting function. The results of the research show that the best model was obtained from robust S-estimation regression with Tukey bisquare weighting, namely factors that influence the level of poverty on the island of Sulawesi, namely Population Number ), Human Development Index ( ), Average Years of Schooling ( ) and, Force Participation Level. Work .
WORLD GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION CLASSIFICATION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SVM) METHOD Ramadani, Kurnia; Gustriza Erda
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17051

Abstract

The phenomenon of Heatwaves has struck several countries across the globe due to climate change. This climate change has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions surpassing the limits set by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report GWPs. This study utilizes the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification method to identify and categorize greenhouse gas emission data from 1990 to 2020 using four kernels function such as linear, polynomial, radial basis function (RBF), and sigmoid. The SVM method demonstrates excellent performance in constructing classification models with a polynomial kernel function. This is evidenced by high values of training accuracy, testing accuracy, and F1-score, accompanied by short training and testing analysis times. Successively, these values are 97.39%, 97.69%, 96.82%, 0.59 seconds, and 0.22 seconds.
APPLICATION OF THE LIGHTGBM ALGORITHM IN THE CLASSIFICATION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Rini Latifah; Gustriza Erda
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17055

Abstract

Ada banyak dampak negatif yang dapat ditimbulkan oleh peningkatan emisi gas rumah kaca. Oleh karena itu, penting untuk mengetahui tingkat emisi gas rumah kaca di masa depan dengan membuat prediksi sehingga kita dapat merencanakan kebijakan untuk memitigasi dampaknya. Pada penelitian ini, klasifikasi tingkat emisi gas rumah kaca dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode lightGBM. Tujuannya untuk melihat kinerja metode light GBM dalam melakukan klasifikasi emisi rumah kaca. Hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini adalah akurasi sebesar 96,26%, sensitivitas sebesar 97,62%, spesifisitas sebesar 93,97%, dan MAE sebesar 0,0374.
EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERACTIVE MULTIMEDIA ARTICULATE STORYLINE 3 USING PAIRED SAMPLE T-TESTS Pitri, Rizka
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17084

Abstract

In facing the era of globalization, especially in the field of education, the government must improve and prepare a better government system. Therefore, efforts are needed to be made, one of which is by increasing basic abilities in the mathematics. The lack of innovation in the process of learning mathematics makes students feel bored with the material provided. Therefore, students often get mathematics score below the graduate competency standards and even fail. Based on these facts, it is necessary to develop interactive multimedia learning innovations in mathematics by creating interactive multimedia using articulate storyline 3 in mathematics learning. So the research was conducted on the effectiveness of interactive multimedia using storyline articulation 3 using paired sample t-tests. This research was using 166 students of class X SMAN 4 Kotabumi. This study aims to see the efficiency of interactive multimedia articulating storyline 3 on understanding concepts and increasing students' academic scores in mathematics. Based on the results of the paired sample t-test, the p-value is 0.000, which is less than the 0.05 significance level. So it can be concluded that the application of multimedia articulate storyline 3 is efficient in increasing students' understanding of mathematical concepts and academic values.
APPLICATION OF THE ARIMA METHOD IN FORECASTING THE PRICE RED CAYENNE PEPPER IN MAKASSAR CITY Arisandi, Arwini; Gaffar, Ismail; Makkulawu, Andi Ridwan
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17120

Abstract

Red chili is one of the commodities with very tall cost changes. The cost variance of red chili can be caused by a huge amount of supply and request. The higher the amount of supply, the lower the cost, and the lower the amount of supply, the higher the cost. This study aims to implement the ARIMA method in forecasting red cayenne pepper prices in Makassar City. Data analysis to forecast red cayenne pepper prices used the ARIMA method with the results show that the price range of chili is from IDR 13,000 to IDR 80,000, with a mean value of IDR 38,218. The model with the minimum SSE and MSE value is ARIMA(1,1,1), so this model be used in time series data modeling for forecasting. The results of forecasting using the best model obtained a MAPE value of 15.90%, which is in the range of 10-20%, so it can be concluded that the ability of the ARIMA(1,1,1) model in forecasting the price of red cayenne pepper includes the good category.
FORECASTING INFLATION IN INDONESIA USING THE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE METHOD: PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE Komara Rifai, Nur Azizah; Zhahirulhaq, Mufdhil Afta
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17130

Abstract

Indonesia faces significant economic challenges, particularly inflation, which affects the economic, social, and cultural sectors. High inflation can exacerbate poverty, alter consumption patterns, and contribute to social injustice, whereas low inflation can enhance national income and stimulate economic activities. Given its fluctuating nature, inflation in Indonesia requires accurate forecasting to inform policy-making and economic decisions. This study aims to forecast inflation in Indonesia for the next eight months using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Monthly inflation data from January 2020 to April 2024 obtained from Bank Indonesia were analyzed. The ARIMA model, suitable for short-term forecasting, was selected due to its ability to handle data trends, non-stationarity, and noise filtering. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests to ensure stationarity. Initial ADF tests showed the presence of a unit root in the original data and the first differencing data, but data became stationary after the second differencing. The KPSS test confirmed a unit root in the original data and trend stationarity after the second and third differencing. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression on the original data revealed a significant time trend, indicating deterministic trends. The optimal model identified was ARIMA(0,2,1) with AIC=51.81, as it met the criteria for normality, independence, and zero mean of residuals. This model effectively forecasts inflation from May to December 2024, which showed an increase with inflation values ​​of 3.02, 3.05, 3.07, 3.10, 3.12, 3.14, 3.17, and 3.19.
PANEL DATA REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR MODELING THE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN NORTH SULAWESI PROVINCE Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia; Adityaningrum, Amanda; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17138

Abstract

The regression analysis is a technique used in hypothesis testing to determine the impact of one variable on another. This study uses Panel Data Regression Analysis, which combines cross-sectional and time series data. This study aims to analyze the impact of Life Expectancy, Income Per Capita, Expected School Years, and Average School Years on the Human Development Index. According to the result of the analysis, the Common Effect Model (CEM), which used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, was the most suitable model. The equation obtained is . Moreover, according to the significance test, all independent variables were significantly related to the dependent variable
Predicting Drought in East Nusa Tenggara: A Novel Approach Using Wavelet Fuzzy Logic and Support Vector Machines Sain, Hartayuni; Fadri, Firda
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i1.17142

Abstract

The water crisis, or what is hereinafter referred to as drought, has become a systemic and crucial problem in several regions in Indonesia. Indonesia is an agricultural country, where the presence of water is very influential so that drought can become a natural disaster if it starts to cause an area to lose its source of income due to disturbances in agriculture and the ecosystem it causes. Drought forecasting can provide support solutions in preventing the impact of drought. In this paper, we compare the performance of wavelet fuzzy logic and the support vector machine (SVM) as a supervised learning method for drought forecasting in East Nusa Tenggara. This study examines the monthly rainfall data for 1999-2015 which is the basis for calculating the drought index based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI value used is SPI-3 at a station in East Nusa Tenggara. The performance of models is compareded on R2. The results showed that R2 of wavelet fuzzy logic is smaller than one of SVMVM is better than the wavelet fuzzy logic for forecasting SPI value of drought in East Nusa Tenggara.
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS IN CENTRAL JAVA WITH K-MEDOIDS ALGORITHM Fadlurohman, Alwan; Ayu Nur Roosyidah, Nila; Amalia Annisa, Nafida
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i2.17131

Abstract

To address the limitations of the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) in only providing a general overview without pinpointing areas of social vulnerability, a correlational approach paired with a clustering method can be applied. This approach helps in identifying dominant factors and pinpointing socially vulnerable districts or cities in Central Java. The study employs the K-Medoids algorithm, which is advantageous when dealing with outliers in the dataset. Three different distance measures are considered: Euclidean, Manhattan, and Minkowski distances, to identify the optimal clustering of social vulnerability. The evaluation of the best cluster is conducted using the Davies-Bouldin Index, a metric for validating clustering models by averaging the similarity of each cluster to its most similar counterpart. Findings indicate that using the K-Medoids algorithm with Manhattan distance yields the most effective clustering, resulting in two distinct clusters. Cluster 1, comprising 25 districts/cities, is identified as the most vulnerable to natural disasters and challenges in education, demography, economy, and health. Meanwhile, Cluster 2, encompassing 10 districts/cities, includes urban areas with the highest social vulnerability, notably in the proportion of rental housing.

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