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Aulia Maghfira
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Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Jalan Kemakmuran No. 4 Samarinda, Kalimantan Timur
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INDONESIA
Buletin Statistika dan Aplikasi Terkini
Published by Bada Pusat Statistika Provinsi Kalimantan Timur
ISSN : 27987493     EISSN : -     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education, Social,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences
BESTARI (Buletin Statistika dan Aplikasi Terkini) merupakan jurnal yang berfokus pada penggunaan berbagai model statistik serta aplikasinya dengan memanfaatkan berbagai data BPS
Arjuna Subject : Umum - Umum
Articles 38 Documents
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ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU KEMISKINAN DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR: Perbandingan Model Weighted Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, dan Regresi Binomial Solikhah, Arifatus
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 3 No. 02 (2023): Bestari Edisi 6
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing household poverty status in East Kalimantan by comparing three models: Weighted Logistic Regression (WLR), Naive Bayes, and Binomial Regression with a generalized logit link function (glogit). The data used were obtained from the National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) conducted in March 2023. Parameter estimation was performed using a Bayesian approach with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm through the RStan program. The analysis results indicate that the number of household members, place of residence, education level of household head, employment status of household head, age of household head, and dependency ratio are significant variables affecting household poverty status in East Kalimantan. The comparison of the three models' performance shows that the WLR and Naive Bayes models are better at detecting poor households compared to the Binomial Regression with a generalized logit link function model, despite the Binomial Regression model showing higher overall accuracy. These findings provide important insights into the determinants of poverty and the effectiveness of various models in handling unbalanced binary data.
Analisis Determinan Kriminalitas di Kalimantan Timur dalam Konteks Pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara: Pendekatan Regresi Binomial Negatif istiqomah, nurul
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 4 No. 02 (2024): Bestari Edisi 8
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

Transformasi sosial-ekonomi di Kalimantan Timur akibat pembangunan Ibu Kota Nusantara (IKN) menciptakan dinamika baru yang memengaruhi stabilitas keamanan, terutama melalui peningkatan angka kriminalitas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor sosial-ekonomi yang memengaruhi tingkat kriminalitas di kabupaten/kota Kalimantan Timur pada tahun 2023. Pendekatan regresi binomial negatif digunakan untuk menguji hubungan antara variabel sosial-ekonomi, seperti kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT), ketimpangan pendapatan (Rasio Gini), rata-rata upah buruh/pegawai, upah minimum kabupaten/kota (UMK), dan belanja pemerintah terhadap tingkat kriminalitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, ketimpangan pendapatan (Rasio Gini), rata-rata upah buruh/pegawai, UMK, dan belanja pemerintah memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap kriminalitas, sementara TPT tidak menunjukkan hubungan yang signifikan secara statistik. Temuan ini menggarisbawahi peran tekanan sosial-ekonomi sebagai pemicu utama kriminalitas di wilayah urban dan semi-urban. Artikel ini menawarkan rekomendasi kebijakan berbasis bukti untuk mendukung pembangunan inklusif yang berpotensi mengurangi tingkat kriminalitas dan menjaga stabilitas sosial. Kata kunci: Kriminalitas, Kepadatan, Kemiskinan, Ketimpangan, Pengangguran,
ANALISIS ELASTISITAS PDRB KALIMANTAN TIMUR PERIODE 2011-2023: PENDEKATAN BAYESIAN PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS LOG-LINEAR REGRESSION Solikhah, Arifatus
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 4 No. 02 (2024): Bestari Edisi 8
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

This study investigates the elasticity of East Kalimantan's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at constant prices 2010 to five economic indicators using a Bayesian Principal Components Log-linear Regression (PCLR) model for the 2011-2023 period. The indicators used include the import volume of non-crude oil fuel, employed population, median value of the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI), electricity consumption, and China's energy consumption. Principal component analysis yields the Economic Fundamental Indicator explaining 76.1436% and the Fuel Import Indicator explaining 20.6950% of the total data variability of 96.8386%. Estimation results show that a one-unit increase in the Economic Fundamental Indicator and Fuel Import Indicator will increase the GRDP at constant prices by 7.17% and 2.01% respectively. The model satisfies the residual normality assumption based on the Shapiro-Wilk test with a p-value of 0.9871 and shows no significant autocorrelation with a Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.4486. These findings imply the importance of strengthening regional economic fundamentals through labor market optimization, energy infrastructure development, increased integration with the national capital market, and economic diversification to reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Keywords: GRDP at constant prices elasticity, Principal Components Log-linear Regression, East Kalimantan, Bayesian method
BARRIERS AND ENCOURAGEMENTS OF CHILDLESSNESS IN INDONESIA Kumala, Thea
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 01 (2025): Bestari 9th Edition
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

Childlessness discourse is interesting and important to discuss since it has become a phenomenon, not only in developed countries but also in the developing world. Specifically, being childfree as a willing decision of childlessness has become pervasive in Indonesia. Indonesia is a country where cultures promote stigmas, which contradict the choice of childlessness which is now valued as the freedom to act and live. This study examines how the community is affected by the interpretation of childlessness by measuring its barriers and encouragement. We applied primary data collected using a survey questionnaire collected from 430 adults living in Jakarta, Indonesia, and adopted Likert scale questions as human attitude measure variables. We used a multinomial logit logistic regression model to estimate the characteristics of respondents who choose to be childless. The result showed that family pressures are the main barriers to childless behavior, while the childfree movement, Western influence, and freedom become prominent encouragements.
Simulasi Injeksi Anggaran Program Makan Bergizi Gratis serta Dampaknya terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia : (Analisis Input-Output) Sabrina Do Miswa; Candra Kurniawan
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 01 (2025): Bestari 9th Edition
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impact of the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program budget injection policy in Indonesia using an input-output (IO) model. Simulations were conducted across 17 economic sectors under four budget distribution scenarios, focusing on Sector A (Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) and Sector C (Processing Industry). The results indicate that each scenario produces different effects on output, gross value added (GVA), income, and employment. The scenario with the largest allocation to Sector C significantly boosts its output but is less optimal in the long run. Conversely, scenarios allocating more funds to Sector A generate broader impacts on food security and employment absorption. Policy implications include optimizing MBG budget distribution, providing incentives for farmers and food SMEs, and strengthening food infrastructure and supply chains. Additionally, integrating the MBG program with sustainable food security strategies and nutrition education is essential to enhance its effectiveness. With the right approach, the MBG program can contribute to food security, economic well-being, and the achievement of sustainable development goals in Indonesia.
KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT DAN DETERMINANNYA Dwi Ardian
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 01 (2025): Bestari 9th Edition
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

Poverty in Sulawesi Barat Province has experienced a slow decline, and has even consistently increased since 2021-2024, placing Sulawesi Barat poverty always above national poverty which tends to decline to single digits. The role of the agricultural sector and informal sector businesses which dominate with an average income below the UMP is thought to be the main factor causing poverty. Apart from that, health factors and educational factors are also thought to have quite an influence on people's productivity in meeting their basic needs. Thus, this research will examine the relationship between GRDP in the agricultural sector, employment, health and education indicators to poverty in Sulawesi Barat Province. The data used is secondary data that has been released by BPS-Statistic of Sulawesi Barat Province, including poverty levels, GRDP based on constant agricultural sector prices, open unemployment rates, life expectancy, and average years of schooling, in 6 districts during the 2015-2024 period. Data were analyzed using panel data regression. The GRDP variable based on constant prices in the agricultural sector has a negative and significant influence on poverty. The variable open unemployment rate (TPT), life expectancy (UHH), and average years of schooling (RLS) insignificant influence on poverty. The coefficient of determination (R2) reached 64.62 percent, indicating that the independent variable is strong enough to explain the dependent variable. Seeing the crucial role of the agricultural sector in Sulawesi Barat, it is necessary to increase productivity in various ways such as building supporting infrastructure, applying modern technology, and so on.
Nowcasting Jumlah Penumpang Udara di Kabupaten Berau Menggunakan Indeks Google Trends Muhammad Rizki Yudistira
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 01 (2025): Bestari 9th Edition
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

Air transport holds a significant role in supporting the economic development of Berau Regency. Airports act as catalysts for economic growth and tourism development. Berau Regency is among the regions with high flight activity through one of the busiest airports in East Kalimantan. In 2023, the number of arriving passengers at Kalimarau Airport was 182,644. Moreover, Berau Regency is also one of the tourist destinations in East Kalimantan. Each year, the number of tourists visiting Berau Regency continues to increase. Every month, Statistics Indonesia of East Kalimantan releases data on air passengers in the region. However, there is a thirty-day delay after the end of the observed month, resulting in the absence of real-time data. To address this issue, a nowcasting model was developed using Google Trends index data. Modeling was conducted using the SARIMAX and Prophet models. After modeling and evaluation, it was found that the Prophet model with Google Trends index and holiday variables was the best-performing model. The nowcasting results for the number of air passengers in April and May were 16,247 and 14,766 passengers, respectively.
Forecasting the Number of Domestic Aircraft Passengers at Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Sepinggan Balikpapan Airport with Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Silfiani, Mega
BESTARI BPS Kalimantan Timur Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Vol. 5 No. 01 (2025): Bestari 9th Edition
Publisher : BPS Kalimantan Timur

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Abstract

Air Passenger, Ensemble Averaging, Forecasting, Holt-Winters, MAPE

Page 4 of 4 | Total Record : 38

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