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UPT Publikasi Ilmiah, Universitas Islam Bandung. Jl. Tamansari No. 20, Bandung 40116, Indonesia, Tlp +62 22 420 3368, +62 22 426 3895 ext. 6891
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Bandung Conference Series: Statistics
Published by Universitas Islam Bandung
ISSN : -     EISSN : 2828206X     DOI : https://doi.org/10.29313/bcss.v2i2
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Mathematics
Bandung Conference Series: Statistics (BCSS) menerbitkan artikel penelitian akademik tentang kajian teoritis dan terapan serta berfokus pada Statistika dengan ruang lingkup sebagai berikut: Alternating Least Square, Analisis Konjoin, Autoregressive, Auxiliary Variabel, Baby Birth, Block Maxima, Churn Distribusi Skellam, Cox Regression, Data spasial, DBD Ordinal Logistic Regression, Diagram kendali, Discrete Choice Experiment Method, Discrete Time Logistic, empirical likelihood, Fisher Scoring, Generalized Structured Component Analysis, Geographically Weighted Regression, GEV, GJR GARCH, Infant Mortality Preferensi, Insurance Claim, Kaplan-Meier, Kernel Bi-Square, Gaussian, Logistic Regression, Maternal Mortality, Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression Model GSTAR, MLE, Model ARIMAX, MSE. Multiple linear regression analysis, Nadaraya Watson, Newton Raphson Method, Nonparametrik Spline Confidence Interval, Optimasi Multi-Objek, orde Spasial, Outlier, Pareto Optimal, Partial Proportional Odds Model, Pemodelan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia. Penduga Rasio dan Produk Tipe Eksponensial, Peramalan, Poisson Bivariate Regression, Poisson Regression, Rata-rata Populasi berhingga, Regresi, Return Period Exogenous Variable, RMSE, Structural Equation Modeling, Survival Analysis, Threshold, Vibrasi Bearing, zero-inflated. Prosiding ini diterbitkan oleh UPT Publikasi Ilmiah Unisba. Artikel yang dikirimkan ke prosiding ini akan diproses secara online dan menggunakan double blind review minimal oleh dua orang mitra bebestari.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
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Search results for , issue "133-142" : 1 Documents clear
Peramalan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Provinsi Jawa Barat Menggunakan Metode DMA Dan DES Erin Heristian; Teti Sofia Yanti
Bandung Conference Series: Statistics 133-142
Publisher : UNISBA Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/bcss.v6i2.24757

Abstract

Abstract. The Open Unemployment Rate is an important part in describing the employment and economic conditions of a region. West Java Province has shown a decline in recent years, but in 2025 it will be in the top three provinces with the highest unemployment rates in Indonesia. Therefore, forecasting is needed to provide an overview of the condition of the Open Unemployment Rate in the future period as supporting material for planning and evaluating employment policies. This study aims to apply the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods, determine the best model, and predict the Open Unemployment Rate of West Java Province in 2026–2027. The study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data on the percentage of the Open Unemployment Rate in 2009–2025 obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, DMA modeling, Brown's DES, and Holt's DES, then model evaluation using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the ADF test show that the data is non-stationary with a p-value of 0.3596. The best model was obtained from Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing with α = 0.9 and γ = 0.05, resulting in a MAPE of 6.184% and an accuracy of 88.28%, categorized as very good. The forecast results indicate an estimated Open Unemployment Rate of 6.299% in 2026 and 5.872% in 2027. These results indicate a downward trend in the Open Unemployment Rate and can be used as supporting information in employment policy planning in West Jawa. Abstrak. Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) merupakan salah satu bagian penting dalam menggambarkan kondisi ketenagakerjaan dan perekonomian suatu wilayah. Provinsi Jawa Barat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir menunjukkan penurunan namun pada tahun 2025 berada di tiga besar Provinsi dengan angka pengangguran tertinggi di Indonesia, sehingga diperlukan peramalan untuk memberikan gambaran kondisi TPT pada periode mendatang sebagai bahan pendukung perencanaan dan evaluasi kebijakan ketenagakerjaan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan metode Double Moving Average (DMA) dan Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), menentukan model terbaik, serta meramalkan TPT Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2026–2027. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder persentase TPT tahun 2009–2025 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik. Analisis dilakukan melalui statistik deskriptif, uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), pemodelan DMA, Brown’s DES, dan Holt’s DES, kemudian evaluasi model menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil uji ADF menunjukkan data tidak stasioner dengan p-value 0,3596. Model terbaik diperoleh dari Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing dengan α = 0,9 dan γ = 0,05, menghasilkan MAPE 6,184% dan akurasi 88,28% dengan kategori sangat baik. Hasil peramalan menunjukkan TPT diperkirakan sebesar 6,299% pada 2026 dan 5,872% pada 2027. Hasil ini menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan TPT dan dapat menjadi informasi pendukung dalam perencanaan kebijakan ketenagakerjaan di Jawa Barat.

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