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Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies (JDESS)
Published by Universitas Brawijaya
ISSN : -     EISSN : 29640083     DOI : 10.21776/ub.jdess
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
Publish all forms of quantitative and qualitative research articles and other scientific studies related to the field of Economic and Social Studies.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekomomi dan Ekonometrika
Articles 387 Documents
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Analysis of the Determining Factors for Educated Unemployment in Banten: A 2024 Sakernas Data Analysis Mulya, Ziddan Baasith; Susilo
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Educated unemployment remains a critical issue in Indonesia’s labor market, particularly in Banten, which consistently records high unemployment rates. This study aims to analyze individual-level factors influencing the probability of becoming an educated unemployed worker using data from the August 2024 Sakernas. A binary logistic regression was applied to 6,951 respondents with at least a senior high school education. The results indicate that age significantly increases the likelihood of unemployment, while work experience strongly reduces it. Women are nearly four times more likely to be educated unemployed. Educational attainment at the SMA, SMK, and Diploma levels also increases unemployment risk compared to postgraduate graduates, whereas the bachelor’s degree category is not statistically significant. Training participation, ICT literacy, and living in urban significantly reduce unemployment probability. Additionally, using Prakerja subsidies for business capital substantially decreases unemployment risk. These findings highlight that educated unemployment in Banten is shaped by demographic factors, human capital characteristics, and the effectiveness of training programs, underscoring the need for policies that enhance skills quality and align competencies with industry demands.
Analysis of the Effect of Budget Efficiency on Fiscal Resilience Kusuma, Wennie Candra; Bintoro, Nugroho Suryo
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

The central government's budget efficiency policy, which cuts transfers to regions by Rp50.59 trillion in 2025, poses serious challenges to regional fiscal resilience, especially in East Java. This study analyzes the impact of Local Own Revenue, economic growth, Transfers to Regions, and regional characteristics on fiscal independence in 38 districts/cities in East Java using data from BPS and DJPK for Quarter I/2024 to Quarter II/2025 with Two-Step System GMM approach. Results show that Local Own Revenue has a significant positive effect with elasticity of 0.185, economic growth has positive but statistically insignificant effect, budget efficiency through reduction of Transfers to Regions increases short-term fiscal independence with negative coefficient of 0.197, and districts have 1.9 percent higher fiscal resilience than cities due to transmigration effect. High fiscal persistence with lag coefficient of 0.451 indicates that improving fiscal resilience requires consistent long-term strategy. Simulations show that continuous efficiency of 5 percent per quarter can reduce fiscal resilience below crisis threshold within three quarters, while minimum economic growth threshold of 4.31 percent per year is needed to maintain fiscal independence amid budget efficiency policies.
Spatial Patterns and Determinants of the Human Development Index: An Esda Approach Aprelia, Nata Widya; Nurman Setiawan Fadjar
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Inequalities in human development in East Java are reflected in a 22.75 point range in the Human Development Index (HDI) across districts and cities, forming a cluster pattern. This study aims to identify the spatial patterns of the HDI and its determining factors using a quantitative panel data approach covering 38 districts and cities for the period 2019–2024. The analysis was conducted using ESDA and panel data regression. ESDA results indicate significant spatial clusters with a hotspot in Gresik and coldspots in Pamekasan and Sampang. However, the panel Lagrange Multiplier test demonstrated no spatial dependence after controlling for independent variables, leading to the selection of CEM as the best model. The primary determinants of the HDI are Average Years of Schooling, Expected Years of Schooling, Life Expectancy, and Real Per Capita Expenditure, all of which have a significant positive influence. These findings confirm Human Capital Theory while rejecting the hypothesis of structural spatial dependence. The implication is that human development policies need to prioritize improving the internal quality of regions, particularly in education and health, rather than relying on spatial spillover effects.
Premature Deindustrialization in Indonesia: An Analysis of Spatial Spillover and its Impact on the Regional Economic Convergence Wandira, Dina; Fadjar, Nurman Setiawan
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between premature deindustrialization and economic convergence among Indonesian provinces using a spatial approach. It addresses a gap in the literature regarding the neglect of spatial dimensions in the linkage between manufacturing decline and regional inequality. The objectives are to identify the characteristics of deindustrialization, measure spatial spillover patterns, and assess its impact on economic convergence. Employing a Spatial Durbin Model on cross-sectional data from 38 provinces covering the period 2002 and 2024, the findings indicate that deindustrialization is heterogeneous and localized, exhibiting limited spatial clustering patterns. Estimation results reveal that deindustrialization exerts a significant negative direct effect on economic growth, while spatial spillover effects are not consistently identified. Economic convergence persists, as evidenced by a significant negative coefficient on initial income, yet neither deindustrialization nor its spatial spillovers are empirically proven to impede this convergence. In conclusion, deindustrialization in Indonesia represents a fragmented regional structural phenomenon with weak spatial connectivity, while convergence is predominantly determined by region-specific internal factors. Policy implications emphasize the need for industrial corridor development and strengthening interprovincial production linkages to spatially transmit industrialization.
The Relationship Between Government Finances and Fiscal Decentralization in Mojokerto Regency Andhika Pradana, Dicky; Hany Fanida, Eva; Anita Fitrie, Revienda
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study aims to explore the financial relationships between the central and regional governments and their impact on the implementation of fiscal decentralization in Mojokerto Regency. The focus of this study covers Regional Original Revenue (PAD), transfer funds, including the General Allocation Fund (DAU), Special Allocation Fund (DAK), and Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH), as well as other legitimate regional revenue sources. The methodology employed is qualitative with a descriptive approach, utilizing secondary data analysis derived from regional budget (APBD) documents, regional financial reports, and relevant regulations. The study's findings indicate that transfer funds remain a major component of regional revenue, contributing approximately 64.8%, while PAD contributes 31.4%. This reflects the importance of financial relations between the central and regional governments in supporting fiscal capacity and regional development, despite relatively low fiscal independence. Furthermore, the potential decline in transfer funds poses a challenge to regional financial stability. Therefore, optimizing PAD, increasing efficiency in financial management, and strengthening transparent and accountable governance are crucial to support sustainable fiscal decentralization.
The Effects of Capital Expenditures, Human Development Index (HDI), and Economic Growth on Poverty in Regencies and Cities of East Nusa Tenggara for the 2013–2023 Period Ni Putu Yunia Sukma Dewi
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study aims to explore the relationship between total capital expenditure and the dynamics of the Human Development Index, economic growth rate, and poverty level at the district/city level in East Nusa Tenggara during the period 2013 to 2023. The information analyzed is sourced from panel secondary data compiled through official publications from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Finance. The approach used in the analysis process is path analysis utilizing SmartPLS. The results indicate that capital expenditure significantly influences economic growth and reduces poverty, but does not influence the HDI. Additionally, both the HDI and economic growth are shown to significantly and negatively influence poverty rates. Other findings revealed that capital expenditure influences poverty through economic growth. The findings suggest that while the allocation of capital expenditure is effective in stimulating the economy and reducing poverty rates, its contribution to human development has not yet reached an optimal level. Therefore, more targeted policy formulation and equitable budget distribution are needed to support inclusive and sustainable development in East Nusa Tenggara Province.
An Analysis of the Influence of Capital Expenditures, Social Aids Expenditures, OUR, HDI, and Education Level on Absolute Poverty in East Java for the 2015–2024 Period Roswandi, Muhammad Syawaludin Thariq; Susilo
Journal of Development Economic and Social Studies Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Absolute poverty in East Java Province remains a structural problem influenced by development disparities, labor market conditions, and the quality of human development, with a slower rate of poverty reduction compared to the national average. This study aims to examine the influence of independent variables, namely capital expenditures, social aids expenditures, open unemployment rate (OUR), Human Development Index (HDI), and education level (proxied by average years of schooling) on absolute poverty in regencies and cities in East Java during the 2015–2024 period. The study employs a quantitative approach using panel data from 38 regencies and cities, analyzed via panel data regression. The results indicate that social aids expenditures, HDI, and education level contribute to reducing absolute poverty, while OUR increases absolute poverty. Meanwhile, lagged capital expenditures does not show a strong short-term contribution to poverty reduction.

Page 39 of 39 | Total Record : 387

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