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INDONESIA
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Published by Institut Pertanian Bogor
ISSN : 25990802     EISSN : 25990802     DOI : -
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Mathematics Other
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications (eISSN:2599-0802) (formerly named Forum Statistika dan Komputasi), established since 2017, publishes scientific papers in the area of statistical science and the applications. The published papers should be research papers with, but not limited to, the following topics: experimental design and analysis, survey methods and analysis, operation research, data mining, statistical modeling, computational statistics, time series and econometrics, and statistics education. All papers were reviewed by peer reviewers consisting of experts and academicians across universities and agencies
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 17 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Vol 5 No 1 (2021)" : 17 Documents clear
Handling of Overdispersion in the Poisson Regression Model with Negative Binomial for the Number of New Cases of Leprosy in Java: Penanganan Overdispersi pada Model Regresi Poisson dengan Binomial Negatif untuk Jumlah Kasus Baru Kusta di Jawa Yopi Ariesia Ulfa; Agus M Soleh; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p1-13

Abstract

Based on data from the Directorate General of Disease Prevention and Control of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, in 2017, new leprosy cases that emerged on Java Island were the highest in Indonesia compared to the number of events on other islands. The purpose of this study is to compare Poisson regression to a negative binomial regression model to be applied to the data on the number of new cases of leprosy and to find out what explanatory variables have a significant effect on the number of new cases of leprosy in Java. This study's results indicate that a negative binomial regression model can overcome the Poisson regression model's overdispersion. Variables that significantly affect the number of new cases of leprosy based on the results of negative binomial regression modeling are total population, percentage of children under five years who had immunized with BCG, and percentage of the population with sustainable access to clean water.
Comparison of Functional Regression and Functional Principal Component Regression for Estimating Non-Invasive Blood Glucose Level: Perbandingan Metode Regresi Fungsional dan Regresi Komponen Utama Fungsional untuk Menduga Kadar Glukosa Darah pada Alat Non-Invasif Nurul Fadhilah; Erfiani Erfiani; Indahwati Indahwati
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p14-25

Abstract

The calibration method is an alternative method that can be used to analyze the relationship between invasive and non-invasive blood glucose levels. Calibration modeling generally has a large dimension and contains multicolinearities because usually in functional data the number of independent variables (p) is greater than the number of observations (p>n). Both problems can be overcome using Functional Regression (FR) and Functional Principal Component Regression (FPCR). FPCR is based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In FPCR, the data is transformed using a polynomial basis before data reduction. This research tried to model the equations of spectral calibration of voltage value excreted by non-invasive blood glucose level monitoring devices to predict blood glucose using FR and FPCR. This study aimed to determine the best calibration model for measuring non-invasive blood glucose levels with the FR and FPCR. The results of this research showed that the FR model had a bigger coefficient determination (R2) value and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Root Mean Square Error Prediction (RMSEP) value than the FPCR model, which was 12.9%, 5.417, and 5.727 respectively. Overall, the calibration modeling with the FR model is the best model for estimate blood glucose level compared to the FPCR model.
Improving Classification Model Performances using an Active Learning Method to Detect Hate Speech in Twitter: Peningkatan Kinerja Model Klasifikasi dengan Pembelajaran Aktif dalam Mendeteksi Ujaran Kebencian di Twitter Muhammad Ilham Abidin; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Bagus Sartono
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p26-38

Abstract

Efforts from the police to address hate speech on social media such as Twitter will not be sufficient to rely solely on manual checks. Therefore, it is necessary to use statistical modelling like the classification model to detect hate speech automatically. Classification is a type of predictive modelling to produce accurate predictions based on labelled data. Generally, the available data are usually unlabelled implying that the labelling process needs to be done beforehand. Data labelling is time consuming, high cost, and often fails to produce correct labels. This research aims to improve the performances of classification models by adding a small amount of data through the so called active learning method. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the performances of logistic regression and naïve bayes classification models in detecting hate speech. However, the results also showed that adding data through the active learning method substantially improved the logistics regression performance in detecting hate speech when compared to data addition based on a simple random sampling method. Therefore, the performances of classification models in detecting hate speech on Twitter could be improved by using an active learning method.
ARFIMA Modelling for Tectonic Earthquakes in The Maluku Region: Pemodelan ARFIMA untuk Kejadian Gempa Bumi Tektonik di Wilayah Maluku Ferry Kondo Lembang; Lexy Janzen Sinay; Asrul Irfanullah
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p39-49

Abstract

Maluku Province is one of the regions in Indonesia with a very active and very prone earthquake intensity because it is a meeting place for 3 (three) plates, namely the Eurasian, Pacific and Australian plates. In the last 100 years, the history of tectonic earthquakes with tsunamis that occurred in Indonesia was 25-30% occurring in the Maluku Sea and Banda Sea. Based on this fact, this study aims to analyze the incidence of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in the Maluku region and its surroundings using the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Averages (ARFIMA) model which has the ability to explain long-term time series data (long memory). The results of the research data analysis show that the best model for predicting the number of tectonic earthquakes that occur in Maluku and its surroundings is ARFIMA (0; 0.712; 1) with an MSE value of 0.1156. Meanwhile, the best model for predicting the average magnitude of the number of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in Maluku and its surroundings is ARFIMA (0; -3,224 x 10-9; 1) with an MSE value of 0.01237. Based on the two best models, the prediction results obtained from the number of tectonic earthquakes and the average magnitude of the number of tectonic earthquakes that occurred in Maluku and its surroundings for the next three periods, namely the first period there were 31 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38481 SR. the second period there were 32 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38407, and the third period there were 32 tectonic earthquakes with an average magnitude of 4.38333.
Simulation Study of Robust Geographically Weighted Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor on Small Area Estimation: Simulasi Metode Prediksi Tak Bias Linier Terbaik Empiris Terboboti Geografis Kekar pada Pendugaan Area Kecil Naima Rakhsyanda; Kusman Sadik; Indahwati Indahwati
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p50-60

Abstract

Small area estimation can be used to predict the population parameter with small sample sizes. For some cases, the population units that are close spatially may be more related than units that are further apart. The use of spatial information like geographic coordinates are studied in this research. Outlier contaminations can affect small area estimations. This study was conducted using simulation methods on generated data with six scenarios. The scenarios are the combination of spatial effects (spatial stationary and spatial non-stationary) with outlier contamination (no outlier, symmetric outliers, and non-symmetric outliers). The purpose of this study was to compare the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor (GWEBLUP) and robust GWEBLUP (RGWEBLUP) with direct estimator, EBLUP, and REBLUP using simulation data. The performance of the predictors is evaluated using relative root mean squared error (RRMSE). The simulation results showed that geographically weighted predictors have the smallest RRMSE values for scenarios with spatial non-stationary, therefore offer a better prediction. For scenarios with outliers, robust predictors with smaller RRMSE values offer more efficiency than non-robust predictors.
The Model of Per-Capita Expenditure Figures in Sumatera Selatan uses a Geographically Weighted Panel Regression: Model Angka Pengeluaran Per-Kapita di Sumatera Selatan menggunakan Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Dia Cahya Wati; Dea Alvionita Azka; Herni Utami
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p61-74

Abstract

The Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) is a development of a global regression model where the basic idea is taken from a combination of panel data and GWR. The GWPR model is built from the point approach method, which is based on the position of the coordinates of latitude and longitude. The parameters for the regression model at each location will produce different values. GWPR can accommodate spatial effects, so that it can better explain the relationship between response variables and predictors. The purpose of this study is to compare the GWPR model with the Fixed Gaussian and Adaptive Bisquare weighting functions based on the AIC value. The data used in this study is secondary data taken from the website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in the form of Per-Capita Expenditure Figures in South Sumatra in 2013-2019. This research results that in the case of the Per-Capita Expenditure Rate (AP), it is better to use the GWPR method with a fixed gaussian weighting function in the modeling, where the resulting coefficient of determination is 95.81% rather than adaptive bisquare with a determination coefficient of 93.3%. The factors that influence the Per-Capita Expenditure Rate (AP) in South Sumatra on the fixed gaussian weighting are divided into 6 groups, while the adaptive bisquare is divided into 2 groups.
Exploration of Obesity Status of Indonesia Basic Health Research 2013 With Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Techniques: Eksplorasi Status Obesitas Riset Kesehatan Dasar 2013 Indonesia dengan Teknik Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Sri Astuti Thamrin; Dian Sidik; Hedi Kuswanto; Armin Lawi; Ansariadi Ansariadi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p75-91

Abstract

The accuracy of the data class is very important in classification with a machine learning approach. The more accurate the existing data sets and classes, the better the output generated by machine learning. In fact, classification can experience imbalance class data in which each class does not have the same portion of the data set it has. The existence of data imbalance will affect the classification accuracy. One of the easiest ways to correct imbalanced data classes is to balance it. This study aims to explore the problem of data class imbalance in the medium case dataset and to address the imbalance of data classes as well. The Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) method is used to overcome the problem of class imbalance in obesity status in Indonesia 2013 Basic Health Research (RISKESDAS). The results show that the number of obese class (13.9%) and non-obese class (84.6%). This means that there is an imbalance in the data class with moderate criteria. Moreover, SMOTE with over-sampling 600% can improve the level of minor classes (obesity). As consequence, the classes of obesity status balanced. Therefore, SMOTE technique was better compared to without SMOTE in exploring the obesity status of Indonesia RISKESDAS 2013.
Segmentation and Positioning of Lecturers in the Department of Computer Science at Pakuan University Based on Student Assessment: Segmentasi dan Positioning Dosen Jurusan Ilmu Komputer Universitas Pakuan Berdasarkan Penialian Mahasiswa Yusma Yanti; Asep Saepulrohman
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p92-104

Abstract

Determining the segmentation and positioning of the lecturers in selecting the thesis supervisor is very important to do. It is because, with this information, the supervision process in thesis writing can run well. This study intends to analyze the segmentation and positioning of lecturers related to determine the thesis supervisor using the Clusterwise Bilinear Spatial Multidimensional Scaling Model (CBSMSM) method. The data used is survey data for fifth-semester bachelor students of the 2019/2020 academic year of the Department of Computer Science, Pakuan University. One hundred sixty-one student observations provide an assessment of 10 attributes regarding the characteristics of 32 lecturers of the department. Furthermore, the estimation of the segment coordinate parameters, lecturer coordinates, dimensions, and attributes simultaneously uses the alternating least square (ALS) algorithm. The number of segments and dimensions are selected based on the smallest sum square error (SSE) value for combining segments and other dimensions. As a result, we get four segments and four dimensions with an SSE value of 4864.003. Furthermore, the department can use this result to illustrate student assessments of their lecturers' characteristics regarding thesis supervision.
Study of Bagging Application in the Safe-Level Smote Method in Handling Unbalanced Classification: Kajian Penerapan Bagging pada Metode Safe-Level Smote dalam Penanganan Klasifikasi Kelas Tidak Seimbang Qorry Meidianingsih; Debby Agustine
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p105-116

Abstract

The problems of imbalanced class classification have been found in many real applications. It has potential to make the minority class instances tend to be classified into the majority class. This study examined the performance of bagging method’s application in safe-level SMOTE based on Support Vector Machine classifier. The data used consisted of three types based on the proportion of observations in the majority and minority classes. Each type of data has three variables, two independent variables and one variable dependent. The observations of independent variables were generated based on multivariate normal distribution, while dependent variables are binary. The results showed that the classifier has a high accuracy and sensitivity for all types of data for both in the imbalanced class and the balanced class (obtained by safe-level SMOTE and safe-level SMOTEBagging). Nevertheless, specificity was the main measure in assessing the performance of the classifier because it provides accuracy in classifying the minority class observations. The specificity increased when the number of observations between the two classes were approximately balance due to the implementation of safe-level SMOTE. The best performance of the Support Vector Machine in predicting minority class observations was achieved when bagging were applied in safe-level SMOTE. The specificity rate for all types of data were 77.93 percent, 78.46 percent, and 85.69 percent, respectively.
The Clustering of Provinces in Indonesia by The Economic Impact of Covid-19 using Cluster Analysis: Pengelompokkan Provinsi di Indonesia dengan Ekonomi Terdampak Covid-19 Menggunakan Analisis Cluster Zerlita Fahdha Pusdiktasari; Widiarni Ginta Sasmita; Wulaida Rizky Fitrilia; Rahma Fitriani; Suci Astutik
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Departemen Statistika, IPB University dengan Forum Perguruan Tinggi Statistika (FORSTAT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p117-129

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Indonesia since March 2020. Several policies have been issued by the Indonesian government to reduce the level of the spread of Covid-19. This policy has an impact on various fields of life, especially the economic sector in various sectors. This study was conducted to analyze the grouping of provinces whose economies are at risk of being affected by Covid-19 based on various economic sectors, namely the unemployment rate, the percentage of poor people, the provincial minimum wage, and the occupancy rate of hotels using cluster analysis. Cluster analysis was performed using several hierarchical methods, namely Simple, Complete, Average, and Centroid Linkage and Ward. The Cophenetic correlation coefficient (rCoph) was used to determine the best method, while the number of clusters was determined based on the Dunn, Connectivity, and Silhoutte indexes. The analysis result shows that Average Linkage is the best method with two clusters. The first cluster consists of all provinces in Indonesia except Papua, whose economy is highly at risk of being affected by Covid-19, characterized by a low percentage of the poor and a low provincial minimum wage, as well as high levels of open unemployment and hotel occupancy rates. Meanwhile, the second cluster consists of the Province of Papua, which is an economic group with a low risk of being affected by Covid-19. By looking at the impact of the Covid-19 disaster, the government can make recovery efforts and generalize economic recovery policies due to Covid-19 which have an impact on the economy of almost all provinces in Indonesia.

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