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SAINSMAT
Published by Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Articles 15 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September" : 15 Documents clear
Time Series Intervention Analysis With Gradual Impact Function A Case Study Of Railway Passenger Volume In Java Island Zulhijrah, Zulhijrah; Isnaini, Mardatunnisa; Angraini, Yenni; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142774742025

Abstract

Java Island has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in March 2020. This study aims to analyze the impact of the pandemic on the volume of railway passengers’ volume with a time series approach using an interventional ARIMA model. The data used is the number of monthly passengers from 2015 to 2024. Initial modeling on data before the pandemic produced the best model, namely ARIMA (0,2,1). To measure the impact of the pandemic, a gradual step intervention function is used which represents the gradual effect of the event. The estimation results show that the ARIMA (0,2,1) model with a gradual step intervention function is able to provide more accurate forecasting results, with a MAPE value of 18.39%. This model effectively captures changes in mobility patterns due to the pandemic, especially in the post-intervention recovery phase. The findings make an important contribution to transportation policy evaluation and future strategic planningKeywords: Time Series, ARIMA  Intervention, Gradual Function, Railway 
Analysis Of Science Laboratory Management In Junior High Schools Across Tasikmalaya City: Challenges And Development Opportunities Rachman, Muhamad Taufik; Hikmaturohmi, Iqbal; Khofipah, Senda Nur; Hardian, Ari; Mustofa, Romy Faisal
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142718002025

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis laboratorium manajemen IPA di SMP se-Kota Tasikmalaya, dengan menyoroti tantangan yang ada serta peluang pengembangan di masa depan. Penelitian dilakukan dengan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif melalui wawancara mendalam, observasi langsung, dan analisis dokumen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengelolaan laboratorium di sebagian besar sekolah belum sepenuhnya memenuhi standar kompetensi sebagaimana diatur dalam Permendiknas No. 26 Tahun 2008. Tantangan utama meliputi keterbatasan tenaga tenaga kerja, struktur organisasi yang tidak terdokumentasi dengan baik, minimnya digitalisasi administrasi, serta belum adanya sistem monitoring dan evaluasi yang sistematis. Meski demikian, terdapat peluang signifikan dalam peningkatan kapasitas guru, pemanfaatan informasi teknologi, serta dukungan regulasi dan kolaborasi lintas sekolah. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan perlunya penguatan kapasitas manajerial kepala laboratorium, penyediaan tenaga kerja khusus, dan sistem pelaporan administrasi yang lebih terintegrasi untuk meningkatkan efektivitas laboratorium sebagai sarana pembelajaran sains.
Clustering Districts/Cities In Southeast Sulawesi Province Using Fuzzy C-Means Based On Infectious Disease Cases Puja Karna, I Kadek Aryandra; Adhi Wibawa, Gusti Ngurah; Ihwal, Muhammad
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142724592025

Abstract

This study aims to determine the clustering results and characteristics of districts or cities in Southeast Sulawesi Province based on infectious disease cases in 2022 using the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) algorithm. The analysis used the standard deviation ratio as a cluster validity measure. The clustering process produced five clusters. Cluster 1 consists of Kendari City which is characterized by a very high number of infectious disease cases. Cluster 2 includes Buton, Konawe, Bombana, North Kolaka and Baubau City which are characterized by low case numbers. Cluster 3 consists of Kolaka and South Konawe both of which have high numbers of cases. Cluster 4 includes Wakatobi, North Buton, North Konawe, East Kolaka, Konawe Islands, West Muna, Central Buton and South Buton which are characterized by very low numbers of cases. Cluster 5 consists of Muna District which is characterized by a moderately high number of infectious disease cases. These results indicate that the FCM method performs well in identifying patterns of disease spread across the region.
Optimal Control of a Mathematical Model for Monkeypox Transmission in Indonesia Using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle Musfira, Musfira; Side, Syafruddin; Abdy, Muhammad; Ridho, Andi Muhammad; Supriadi, Supriadi
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142763342025

Abstract

Abstract: The re-emergence of Monkeypox poses significant public health challenges in Indonesia. This disease continues to spread due to its zoonotic nature and the high frequency of human-animal interactions. This study aims to model the transmission dynamics of Monkeypox using the SIQR (Susceptible, Infectious, Quarantined, Recovered) framework and apply optimal control strategies through the Pantryagin Maximum Principle (PMP). Data from the Indonesian Ministry of Health were utilised for model parameterisation, with numerical simulations conducted using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Control strategies included quarantine, tecovirimat, and public education. The simulation results revealed that implementing optimal control reduced the infected population by up to 75% within the first 10 months compared to scenarios without control. The basic reproduction number () was successfully reduced from 2.5 to below 1, indicating that the outbreak was controlled. Additionally, the recovery rate increased by 30%, with the susceptible population achieving a disease-free equilibrium by the eighth month. These findings highlight that mathematically-driven interventions can provide effective solutions for managing infectious diseases. It is recommended that these strategies be integrated into public health policies to optimise resource allocation. Further research is necessary to evaluate the scalability of this approach for other zoonotic diseases.
Bayesian Spatio Temporal Car Localized Model For Mapping The Relative Risk Of AIDS In South Sulawesi Province Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi; Aswi, Aswi; Annas, Suwarni
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142776802025

Abstract

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Indonesia, with South Sulawesi showing a marked rise in cases from 2022 to 2024. This study aims to estimate and visualize the relative risk of AIDS across 24 districts and municipalities in the province by incorporating population density as a spatial covariate. Data were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. A Bayesian Localised Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) spatio-temporal framework was applied to account for both spatial dependence and temporal variation. Model selection was guided by the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), with the best-fitting model identified at G = 3 using an Inverse-Gamma (1; 0.01) prior. The analysis revealed that population density had a significant positive association with AIDS incidence. Areas with higher density exhibited elevated relative risk values, particularly Makassar City (RR = 1.95) and Gowa Regency (RR = 1.82), whereas the lowest risks were found in Selayar (RR = 0.41) and East Luwu (RR = 0.45). These findings indicate distinct spatial clustering patterns and underscore the need for geographically focused intervention policies.

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