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Arinal, Veri
STIKOM Cipta Karya Informatika Jakarta, Indonesia
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Journal : JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)

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Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4 Yel, Mesra Betty; Tundo, Tundo; Arinal, Veri
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 8, No 3 (2024): July
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v8i3.22225

Abstract

This research aims to predict roof tile production trends at one of the roof tile companies in Kebumen to assist company management in determining and providing management recommendations for the tile production that occurs. A comparison of Single Moving Average (SMA) and Double Moving Average (DMA) Forecasting methods was used to better accommodate trends in roof tile production data optimally. Where the forecast is presented for several steps ahead, and is equipped with a value measuring the accuracy of the forecast using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), on roof tile production transaction data over 60 months, namely January-December 2019 to January-December 2023 to produce a monthly forecast for predicting roof tile production with n-th ordo 2 and 4. The total sample of training data processed was 1,415,987 records which were roof tile production transaction data, as well as data in January 2024 as test data (to test the accuracy of the forecast). The results of testing the forecast results produced a MAPE calculation of 6.6% for SMA with n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it was 7.2%. The MAPE value for DMA is 6.3% for n-th ordo 2, while for n-th ordo 4 it is 8.2%, which means the accuracy level is very good, namely above 90%. Based on the MAPE results obtained, the DMA method with n-th ordo 2 is a suitable method for carrying out periodic forecasting for roof tile companies in carrying out the production process to maintain stability and avoid unexpected events.
Co-Authors Adella Fitriany Cahyana Adityo Purwo Nugroho Agus Tanti Rahayu Ahluna, Faza Ahmad Tarwanto Akbar, Yuma Akbarulloh, Feri Ali Akbar Ali Akbar Andriyana Fajar Anggi Ramadhan Anisa Puji Ikawati Anita Rosiana Arribatullah, Arribatullah Artha Patricia Atik Budi Paryanti Azizi, Doni Betty Yel, Mesra Bobby Arvian James Buulolo, Rupawan Calvin Bill Christian Gunawan Dadang Iskandar Mulyana` Dadang Iskandar, Dadang Dava Septya Arroufu Dede Sarikah Dhita Aidilla Dicky Saputra Dirgantoro, Bagus Dita Safira Dita Yuliana Dita Yuliana Doni Azizi Edi Nurhadi Edwin Sentosa Fajar, Andriyana Fa’aso Lase Febri Yoga Harjanto Fikryadi, Fikryadi Fiktor Kurnia Fiky Alan Nuari Fileni Zalukhu Ilham Wahyudi Indah Rosmalina Josua Pangaribuan Kurniawan Irfan Nauval M. Rohyan Zidan M.Rafli Fadillah M.Taufik Melani, Melani Afsari Melli Puspita S Miftahul Ulum Miftahul Ulum Muhammad Azhari Muhammad Nurur Raudhan Mulya, Citra Pricylia Ananda Nauval, Kurniawan Irfan Nayoan, Vallen Ezra Piter Niarti Agustiani Nova Esterina Silitonga Novi Septiani Nuary Inaldi Simarmata Nur Arif Khairudin Nurul Khoiriyah Paryanti, Atik Budi Patricia, Artha Prabowo, Renno Sandi Prabowo, Reno Sandi Prakoso Angga I Purnomo, Bening Sari Puspita, Melli Putra, Adhy Hantar Putri Nugraheni Utami Putri, Seftiana Eka Radikto Rahayu, Agus Tanti Ramadhan, M. Anggi Reza Setiawan Reza Wanandi Riko Afriandika Rindy Julianda Rizky Adawiyah Rodhiyah Rodhiyah Romadan, Diva Putra Ronny Budi Santoso Royadi, Refi Nabillah Rusmarhadi, Irma Safira, Dita Saidah, Andi Sarimole, Francis Matheus Sarimole, Frencis Matheos Septiyana Bila Setya Putra Adenugraha Shabrina Sukma Wardana Shakila Shila Wati Shindy Apriyani Simarmata, Nuary Inaldi Siti Nurhaliza Siti Raysyah Stepanus Stepanus Sugiyono Sugiyono Sugiyono Sugiyono Sutisna Sutisna Sutisna Sutisna Tundo, Tundo Wandi Sanip Yuliya Putri P Yunita T Lubis