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Riyantoko, Prismahardi Aji
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Journal : Journal of International Conference Proceedings

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Daily Forecasting for Antam's Certified Gold Bullion Prices in 2018-2020 using Polynomial Regression and Double Exponential Smoothing Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana; Riyantoko, Prismahardi Aji; Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida; Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas
Journal of International Conference Proceedings Vol 3, No 4 (2020): Proceedings of the 8th International Conference of Project Management (ICPM) Mal
Publisher : AIBPM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32535/jicp.v3i4.1009

Abstract

Gold investment is currently a trend in society, especially the millennial generation. Gold investment for the younger generation is an advantage for the future. Gold bullion is often used as a promising investment, on other hand, the digital gold is available which it is stored online on the gold trading platform. However, any investment certainly has risks, and the price of gold bullion fluctuates from day to day. People who invest in gold hopes to benefit from the initial purchase price even if they must wait up to five years. The problem is how they can notice the best time to sell and buy gold. Therefore, this research proposes a forecasting approach based on time series data and the selling of gold bullion prices per gram in Indonesia. The experiment reported that Holt’s double exponential smoothing provided better forecasting performance than polynomial regression. Holt’s double exponential smoothing reached the minimum of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 0.056% in the training set, 0.047% in one-step testing, and 0.898% in multi-step testing.
Daily Forecasting for Antam's Certified Gold Bullion Prices in 2018-2020 using Polynomial Regression and Double Exponential Smoothing Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana; Riyantoko, Prismahardi Aji; Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida; Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas
Journal of International Conference Proceedings Vol 3, No 4 (2020): Proceedings of the 8th International Conference of Project Management (ICPM) Mal
Publisher : AIBPM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32535/jicp.v3i4.1009

Abstract

Gold investment is currently a trend in society, especially the millennial generation. Gold investment for the younger generation is an advantage for the future. Gold bullion is often used as a promising investment, on other hand, the digital gold is available which it is stored online on the gold trading platform. However, any investment certainly has risks, and the price of gold bullion fluctuates from day to day. People who invest in gold hopes to benefit from the initial purchase price even if they must wait up to five years. The problem is how they can notice the best time to sell and buy gold. Therefore, this research proposes a forecasting approach based on time series data and the selling of gold bullion prices per gram in Indonesia. The experiment reported that Holt’s double exponential smoothing provided better forecasting performance than polynomial regression. Holt’s double exponential smoothing reached the minimum of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 0.056% in the training set, 0.047% in one-step testing, and 0.898% in multi-step testing.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Akbar , Fawwaz Ali Alamsyah, Ryan Badai Ali Shodikin Alifansa, Dimas Mirza Amalia, Indira S. Amelia, Meisya Vira Amri Muhaimin Arista Pratama Atnanda, Primus Akbar Damaliana, Aviolla Terza Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas Dwi Arman Prasetya Emilia, Kholidatus Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana Gunawan, Boy Erdyansyah Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida idhom, Mohammad Ikaningtyas, Maharani Ilmayasinta, Nur Khosyi, Hanun Aufa Nur Nabilah Selayanti Pratama, Novandi Kevin Putri, Shafira Amanda Rahayu, Ayu Sri Rochmatin, Ulifatur Sa'diyah, Ilmatus Safitri, Eristya Maya Saputra, Wahyu Syaifullah Jauharis Soemarsono, Annisa Rahmita Solikha, Nur Imro’atus Trimono, Trimono Varqa Ansori, Nine Alvariqati Wahyu Kyestiati Sumarno, Wahyu Kyestiati Widayawati, Eny Widison, Daffin Tanjiro Yuliani, Devina Putri