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All Journal IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Jurnal Informatika Seminar Nasional Aplikasi Teknologi Informasi (SNATI) Jurnal Teknik ITS Proceedings of KNASTIK JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Teknik dan Ilmu Komputer Seminar Nasional Informatika (SEMNASIF) Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence SISFO CCIT (Creative Communication and Innovative Technology) Journal Journal of Information System,Graphics, Hospitality and Technology ILKOMNIKA: Journal of Computer Science and Applied Informatics JAREE (Journal on Advanced Research in Electrical Engineering) Jurnal Nasional Teknik Elektro dan Teknologi Informasi Sewagati Masip: Jurnal Manajemen Administrasi Bisnis dan Publik Terapan Proceeding of International Conference on Social Science and Humanity
Wiwik Anggraeni
Departemen Sistem Informasi Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
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Journal : CCIT (Creative Communication and Innovative Technology) Journal

 1 
AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON BANK FORECASTING USING REGRESSION DYNAMIC LINIER MODEL Wiwik Anggraeni; Danang Febrian
CCIT Journal Vol 5 No 1 (2011): CCIT JOURNAL
Publisher : Universitas Raharja

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (205.874 KB) | DOI: 10.33050/ccit.v5i1.486

Abstract

Nowadays, forecasting is developed more rapidly because of more systematicaly decision making process in companies. One of the good forecasting characteristics is accuration, that is obtaining error as small as possible. Many current forecasting methods use large historical data for obtaining minimal error. Besides, they do not pay attention to the influenced factors. In this final project, one of the forecasting methods will be proposed. This method is called Regression Dynamic Linear Model (RDLM). This method is an expansion from Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) method, which model a data based on variables that influence it. In RDLM, variables that influence a data is called regression variables. If a data has more than one regression variables, then there will be so many RDLM candidate models. This will make things difficult to determine the most optimal model. Because of that, one of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) methods will be applied in order to determine the most optimal model from a set of RDLM candidate models. This method is called Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Using this AIC method, model choosing process will be easier, and the optimal RDLM model can be used to forecast the data. BMA-Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) method is able to determine RDLM models optimally. The optimal RDLM model has high accuracy for forecasting. That can be concluded from the error estimation results, that MAPE value is 0.62897% and U value is 0.20262.
Co-Authors Achmad Holil Noor Ali Adri Gabriel Sooai Agustinus Bimo Gumelar Ahmad Mukhlason Ahmad Muklason Amalia Utamima Amalinda Jayanty Amira Herwindyani Hutasuhut Amna Shifia Nisafani Andreas Agung Kristanto, Andreas Agung Ani Rahmadiani Apol Pribadi Arif Djunaidy Arrizal Kusuma, Moch Farrel Asra Alfathoni Aulia Sidharta, Hanugra Aulia Vinarti Danang Febrian Diah Risqiwati Divka, Princessa Sissy Eko Mulyanto Yuniarno Faizal Mahananto Fajar Kurnia Malays Fandi Cahyo Saputro Febriliyan Samopa Handayani Tjandrasa Hanif Mitsal Mahatta Hardhika Propitadewa Ika Ayu Fajarwati Ilmi Usrotin Choiriyah Imelda Dian Rahmawati Indar Sugiarto Irlando Moggi Prakoso Jeremy Diaz Prasetyo Jihaan Harvi Habibah Kurniaji, Garis Narendra Kusumawardhani, Renny Pradina Lailatul Husniah Laura Wilhelmina Theresia Leivina Kartika Dewi Lia Farihul Mubin M. Fajrul Hakim M. Fiqri Ananda Maria Cendanasari Kurniawan Putri Mauridhi Hery Purnomo Mauridhi Hery Purnomo Meilani, Maulidiya Mochamad Zidan Aqila Kamil Muhammad Ali Fikri Muhammad Arif Nuriman Muhammad Daffa Maulana Muhammad Hisyam Naufal Rafiawan Basara Nazriyah Deni Tsaniyah Nova Eka Budiyanta Novian Tiandini Nur Aini Lestari Nur Khofifah Nur Laila Nur Nindya Risnina Oktania, Teky Budi Perdana, Muhammad Ilham Pujiadi Pujiadi Pujiadi, Pujiadi Purnama, I Putu Adhitya Pratama Mangku Radityo Prasetianto Wibowo Rahma Fauzia Rahmanisa, Fathia Raras Tyas Nurita Raras Tyasnurita Restia Rezalini P. S Retno Aulia Vinarti Rikasakomara, Edwin Riksakomara, Edwin Rizky Praditya Rully Agus Hendrawan Septica Tiara Indah Permatasari Sidharta, Hanugra Aulia Siti Aminatus Zehroh Sudiarti, Yeyen SUGIYANTO Sugiyanto - Supeno M Susiki Nugroho T, Lulus Condro Tresnaning Arifiyah Tri Achmadi Wahyu Ardianto Willy Achmat Fauzi