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Delivery-Aware Hybrid Throughput Forecasting for Targeted Capacity Planning and Proactive Congestion Avoidance in Microwave Transmission Networks Gede Deny Marthafani Gede; Catur Apriono
International Journal of Electrical, Computer, and Biomedical Engineering Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62146/ijecbe.v4i1.239

Abstract

Microwave transmission networks operate under strict physical-layer capacity constraints, where excessive utilization may reduce service reliability and increase congestion risk. In practical operations, capacity expansion decisions are both time-sensitive and location-sensitive, requiring operators to determine not only when an upgrade should be executed, but also which links require intervention. However, many existing forecasting approaches remain focused on numerical prediction accuracy and do not explicitly support delivery-aware and targeted planning decisions. This study proposes a delivery-aware hybrid smoothing–residual forecasting framework for link-level microwave throughput prediction using hourly Network Management System (NMS) data from 110 links observed over a six-month period. The framework separates the throughput series into a smoothed structural component and a residual component, where primary forecasting is performed on the structural signal, and residual error is modeled using LightGBM. The final forecast is reconstructed by combining both components and evaluated across multiple horizons using WMAPE, MAE, and RMSE. Experimental results show that CatBoost with LightGBM residual correction provides the most consistent performance across all forecasting horizons. Beyond improving prediction accuracy, the proposed framework enables delivery-aware and targeted capacity planning by estimating threshold-crossing timing and identifying high-risk links. This supports proactive congestion avoidance, more efficient upgrade prioritization, and improved resource allocation in microwave transmission networks.
Co-Authors Adhiyoga , Yohanes Galih Adhiyoga, Yohanes Galih Aditya Eka Mulyono Admaja , Awangga Febian Surya Adriansyah, Muhammad Athallah Aini Nurul Akbar, Anshari Akbar, Teuku Alif Rafi Amirsyah Rayhan Mubarak Amirul Ihsan Anita Rizkiyani ATHALLAH, MIKAIL FAUZAN Awangga Febian Surya Admaja A’isya Nur Aulia Yusuf B. Pratiknyo Adi Mahatmanto Bambang Dewandaru Dedi Irawadi Dian Widi Astuti Dinari Nikken Sulastrie Sirin Dinari Nikken Sulastrie Sirin Dzakwan Widyo Pangestu Eko Tjipto Rahardjo EkoTjipto Rahardjo, EkoTjipto Ellin Devihana Pratiwi Ellin Devihana Pratiwi Ellin Devihana Pratiwi Farhan Annur Mahmudi Fauzan, Itsnanta Muhammad Fitri Yuli Zulkifli Gede Deny Marthafani Gede Hendrik Amrico Hendrik Amrico Hendry Steven Marbun Herma Adis Herry Tony Andhyka Hidayat Gunawan Ibrahim Amyas Aksar Tarigan Ihsan, Amirul Insani Sekar Wangi Itsnanta Muhammad Fauzan Khalfan Nadhief Prayoga Wicaksono Khalfan Nadhief Prayoga Wicaksono KURNIAWAN, FAROHAJI LUBIS, MUHAMMAD FIRDAUS SYAWALUDIN Mahmudi, Farhan Annur Manzila Izniardi Djomiy Martiana Kholila Fadhil May Hendra Panjaitan Mubarak, Amirsyah Rayhan Muh Asnoer Laagu Muhammad Afiff Rizki Muhammad Afiff Rizki Muhammad Riza Darmawan Muhammad Riza Darmawan Muslim , Muslim Muslim Muslim Nabila Syadzwina Effendi Norihisa Hiromoto, Norihisa Nugroho Widi Jatmiko NUGROHO, SALSABILA SHITA PUTRI Nurul Aini Priska Apnitami Rahman, Liani Budi Resti Savira Resti Savira Roki Fernando RUHIYAT, ABDURRASYID Rusdiyanto, Dian Sahid Ridho Savitri Amalia Sifa Novwidia Agni Suhermanto Suhermanto Supriyono Supriyono Syaniri Andra Teuku Alif Rafi Akbar Trivia Anggita Wahdiyat, Aditya Inzani Wicaksono, Khalfan Nadhief Prayoga Yundari, Yundari Yus Natali Yustin, Alfiyah Shaldzabila