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All Journal JURNAL ILMIAH MANAJEMEN & BISNIS Majalah Kulit, Karet, dan Plastik JURNAL MANAJEMEN INDUSTRI DAN LOGISTIK Malikussaleh Journal of Mathematics Learning (MJML) JPP Jurnal Kesehatan Poltekkes Palembang INVENTORY : Industrial Vocational E-Journal On Agroindustry Jurnal Pustaka Mitra : Pusat Akses Kajian Mengabdi Terhadap Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (ABDIKEMAS) Journal Serambi Engineering (JSE)
Trisna Yuniarti
Politeknik APP Jakarta
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Komparasi Metode Regresi Linier, Exponential Smoothing dan ARIMA Pada Peramalan Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit di Indonesia Yuniarti, Trisna; Astuti, Juli; Rusmar, Irfan; Widiana , Ika; Bani , Fajar Ciputra Daeng
INVENTORY: Industrial Vocational E-Journal On Agroindustry Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Politeknik ATI Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52759/inventory.v3i1.74

Abstract

This study aims to compare several methods to get the best methods on forecasting the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. In addition, this study also aims to estimate the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports for the next five years. Some of the forecasting methods used in this study are linear regression, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. The data used is historical data on the volume of palm oil exports from 1981 to 2020. The results of calculations and analysis show that the exponential smoothing model of the damped trend method produces the smallest error value compared to other methods, the MAD value is 860,353, the MSE value is 1,707,738,707,222, the RSME value is 1,306,805, and the MAPE value is 20.6%. This method has chosen to be the best forecasting method for the next five years. The forecast results obtained that the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports for the next five years are28.864.223,31 tons, 28.967.062,92 tons, 29.064.976,80 tons, 29.158.200,89 tons, and 29.246.959,81 tons.
Co-Authors ., Listrianah Amrin Rapi Anisa Rahmawati Arum, Riska Mulia Bani , Fajar Ciputra Daeng Bani, Fajar Ciputra Daeng Bayunata, Athur Bianggo NauE, Dian Adhe Bianggo, Dian Adhe Dahliyah Hayati Elda Pelita Fajar Ciputra Daeng Bani Faujiyah, Fidhani Faujiyah, Firdhani Firdhani Faujiyah Hayati, Dahliyah Iga Dwi Wahyuni Ika Widiana Irfan Rusmar Juli Astuti Juli Astuti M Zaiyar M. Zaiyar Muhammad Alde Rizal Riska Mulia Arum Risma Sari Rizal, Muhammad Alde Rusmar, Irfan Sonlimar mangunsong Tengku Rachmi Hidayani Widiana , Ika Zaiyar, M