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Spillover Effect of Global Financial Cycle To Asset Markets in Asean-5 Countries: A Structural VAR Approach Andaiyani, Sri; Falianty, Telisa Aulia
AFEBI Economic and Finance Review Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017): December
Publisher : Asosiasi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47312/aefr.v2i02.97

Abstract

An upsurge and volatility of capital flows to Emerging Asian Economies indicated that there is the potential effect of global financial cycle to emerging market. It provides an overview of investor risk aversion in short term investment after financial crisis 2008. Global financial cycle could have a significant impact to asset prices, including equity prices and property prices. Rey (2015) has triggered an interesting discussion about global financial cycle. She found that there was a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and credit growth. This cycle was co‐moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze empirically global financial cycle shocks, measured by the VIX, on equity prices and property prices in ASEAN-5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines. We estimate quarterly frequency data from Q1 1990 to Q2 2016 with Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The result of this study showed that global financial cycle has a negative significant impact on the ASEAN-5 asset markets, in spite of the response of shock differs by country and size. This result is consistent with ASEAN-5 as small open economies that remain vulnerable to the global factor. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we identify not only cyclical expansions or contraction in asset markets but also the impact of global financial cycle to asset markets in ASEAN-5 countries. Second, we investigate whether there are heterogeneous responses of ASEAN-5 countries to global financial cycle shocks. Third, we also identify the pattern of cycle in ASEAN-5 countries.JEL Classification: F30, F37, F42Keywords: ASEAN, Asset Markets, Global Financial Cycle, SVAR
Penentuan Asuransi yang Berdampak Sistemik di Indonesia Tiara Armaliya, Wa Ode; Aulia Falianty, Telisa
Jurnal sosial dan sains Vol. 4 No. 7 (2024): Jurnal Sosial dan Sains
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/jurnalsosains.v4i7.1494

Abstract

Latar Belakang: Banyaknya kasus gagal bayar pada industri asuransi beberapa tahun belakangan ini menimbulkan pertanyaan kepada public apakah industri asuransi memiliki dampak yang sistemik tehadap perekonomian seperti banyak diberitakan. Pengukuran risiko sistemik pada industri asuransi dilakukan dengan melakukan adapatasi risiko sistemik menjadi risiko signifikan, karena dampaknya hanya akan dirasakan oleh stakeholder sector tersebut. Sehingga diperlukan sebuah kriteria atau metodologi untuk mengidentifikasi perusahaan asuransi yang memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap industrinya agar pemerintah dapat membuat kebijakan apakah akan melakukan bail-out atau tidak apabila ada perusahaan asuransi tertentu yang terancam default. Tujuan: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kriteria atau metodologi untuk mengidentifikasi perusahaan asuransi yang memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap industri asuransi di Indonesia. Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi literatur. Data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari sumber-sumber literatur seperti buku, jurnal, dan laporan terkait.   Hasil: Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat kriteria atau metodologi untuk mengidentifikasi perusahaan asuransi yang memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap industri asuransi di Indonesia, yaitu dengan menggunakan konsep Domestic Systemically Important Insurance (D-SIIs). Kesimpulan: Pemerintah perlu menetapkan kriteria atau metodologi untuk mengidentifikasi perusahaan asuransi yang memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap industri asuransi di Indonesia, sehingga dapat membuat kebijakan yang tepat dalam menangani perusahaan asuransi yang terancam default.
Dampak Pembiayaan Kredit Perbankan terhadap Nilai Tambah Industri Pengolahan di Indonesia Sholihah, Ita Kurnia; Falianty, Telisa Aulia
Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Vol. 9, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study aims to measure the effect of bank credit financing to value-added of manufacturing industry in Indonesia. This study uses the data of manufacturing industry sub-sector level. The data used are sub-sector credit, value added, labor, fixed capital, the minimum wage, the exchange rate, and the Gross Domestic Produc. This study period is 2002 – 2012 and using a Two-Stage Least Square with Fixed Effect as a estimation methode. Finally, the results showed that the significant effect of bank credit financing to encourage value-added manufacturing industry in Indonesia.
Uji Empiris Reformulasi Kondisi Marshall-Lerner untuk Kasus Ekspor dan Impor Manufaktur di Indonesia Yudotaruno, Taukhid; Falianty, Telisa Aulia
Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study aims to examine the condition of Marshall-Lerner regard to the simultaneous relationship of export and import of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector. This simultaneous relationship occurs due to Indonesia’s manufacturing industry is part of the global production network as of its export products containing imported intermediate inputs. SVAR is using to analyze the simultaneous relationship between variables with their own variables and other variables in the past. Its due to changes in export and import values do not immediately occur at the same time with changes in exchange rates. Empirical results shows that by taking into account the simultaneous relationship of exports and imports, Marshall- Lerner conditions still met.
Endogenitas dari lndikator Optimum Currency Area: Studi Empiris di Negara ASEAN Falianty, Telisa Aulia
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 6, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

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How natural resources shape the industrial development: Evidence from N-10 countries Chairul, Reza Pahlevi; Falianty, Telisa Aulia; Triaswati, Ninasapti; Revindo, Mohamad Dian
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 26 No. 1: April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v26i1.25605

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of natural resources on the manufacturing industry. It aims to fill the gap in the research on the impact of natural resources on industrial productivity since there is very limited literature on such a topic, particularly in the Next Eleven countries (N-11), excluding South Korea (referred to as the N-10 countries). South Korea is not included as a sample because it does not have many natural resources. The N-10 countries (Vietnam, Turkey, Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, and Bangladesh) have a large population, rapid economic growth, and political and economic stability. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is implemented using data panels of the N-10 countries with natural resources from 2015 to 2021. This study confirms that the resource curse exists, as evidenced by the detrimental effects of abundant natural resources on industrial productivity. Empirical findings have also documented a significantly adverse impact of corruption practices in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, capital and trade openness should be further improved to encourage value-added industries. Based on the results of this study, the N-10 countries are recommended to diversify their economies, reduce reliance on natural resources, and strengthen the control of corruption.
The Impact Analysis of Green Bond Issuance on Carbon (CO2) Emissions: Green Finance Transformation in Developed and Developing Countries : Impact Analysis of Green Bond Issuance on Carbon (CO2) Emissions: Green Finance Transformation in Developed and Developing Countries Wijianto; Prof. Telisa Aulia Falianty, S.E., M.E.
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan Vol. 19 No. 1 (2026): Vol. 19, No. 1, Februari 2026 (pp.1-233)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JEKT.2026.v19.i01.p04

Abstract

This study seeks evidence of whether the issuance of green bonds can affect carbon emissions in developed and developing countries. Identifying this link is crucial in reducing emissions and mitigating climate change. However, empirical evidence on the impact of green bonds is often limited because the data year series covers only a few years. Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the analysis in this study covered dynamic data from 16 countries between 2016 and 2021. The finding shows that the issuance of green bonds significantly impacted carbon emissions in both developed and developing countries. The more green bonds issued, the lower the carbon emissions. The results also show that green bond issuance in developed and developing countries differs. In developed countries, large investment-class issuers within the banking sector primarily benefit from greenium linked to green bonds. Meanwhile, developing countries face barriers to green bond development, including a lack of proper institutional arrangements, minimum volume requirements, and high transaction costs. Aside from addressing these barriers, the government must focus on improving facilities and infrastructure to increase the impact of issuing green bonds in order to transition to a green economy
Bank Indonesia's Behavior in Response to The Fed’s Policy Kiky Indah Sari; Telisa Aulia Falianty
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 17, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

Global economic instability is a challenge for the domestic economy, especially for emerging countries. A higher Federal Funds Rate for longer affects economic stability. Bank Indonesia plays a role in determining the BI rate to achieve economic goals. Indonesia as an open economy needs to consider external aspects in determining monetary policy. The Augmented Taylor Rule framework can facilitate this need to know about the determination of the BI rate. This study aims to identify the behavior of Bank Indonesia in response to the Fed's policy and the phenomenon of higher for longer. The research period was conducted from 2000Q2 - 2023Q4 using secondary data. The results of the analysis show that overall Bank Indonesia responds to an increase in the BI rate when the inflation gap increases, the output gap increases, and the rupiah depreciates. These conditions are following the Taylor Rule framework. However, in the higher for longer period there is a change in which the determination of the BI rate depends only on the output gap and the real exchange rate. The inflation gap variable has no significant effect on the determination of the BI rate. In the higher for longer period, the prioritized economic goal is a comprehensive economic recovery.  
The Risk-Taking Channel and Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Indonesia Pristanto Silalahi; Telisa Aulia Falianty
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 15, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v15i12023p124

Abstract

This study aims to analyze monetary and macroprudential policies through risk taking banks in Indonesia. The importance of risk-taking channel analysis in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is that it is a newer route and is different from the bank lending channel that has been previously proposed in monetary policy theory. This risk-taking channel affects the supply of credit by banks through the bank's decision to channel credit based on changes in bank behavior in dealing with bank risk. The study also recognizes the impact of monetary and macroprudential policies and the role of the characteristics of banks, as well as macroeconomic conditions such as economic growth and inflation rates. The analytical method used is fixed effects through panel data in the period 2012-2019. This study uses 3 types of proxies to measure risk, first with the Z-score measurement method, second with the ratio of the number of risky assets to total assets and third, the ratio of the number of bad loans to total assets. The results of this study found that the impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy significantly affects bank risk. In addition to the main variables, this study also uses GDP growth and inflation variables as control variables for macroeconomic conditions that significantly effect on bank risk, liquidity, and bank size variables as control of bank characteristics which also significantly affect bank risk. So, it can be concluded that the risk-taking channel exists in Indonesia’s banking.
Digital Financial Services and Impact of M&A in the Banking Sector Performance: Case: Indonesian Fintech M&A on Banking Sectors Eka Putra Budi Nugroho; Telisa Aulia Falianty
EKOMBIS REVIEW: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 14 No 1 (2026): Januari
Publisher : UNIVED Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37676/ekombis.v14i1.8758

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This study examines the impact of bank acquisitions by financial technology (fintech) firms on the performance of conventional banks in Indonesia between 2017 and 2024. Employing a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach with a double-robust estimator (did2s), the analysis focuses on four key indicators: market access (measured by the number of customer accounts), profitability (Net Interest Margin/NIM and Return on Assets/ROA), and operational efficiency (BOPO ratio). The findings reveal that fintech-led acquisitions significantly expanded customer accounts in the second year post-acquisition, indicating successful market reach. However, a sharp decline in NIM emerged in the first year, reflecting margin pressure. ROA showed initial improvement but diminished in subsequent years. No significant change was detected in the BOPO ratio, suggesting limited efficiency gains. These results indicate that digital integration yields immediate growth in customer base but slower improvements in financial metrics, shaped by integration challenges, regulatory factors, and competitive intensity. This study contributes to the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework and Platform Economics by elucidating the complex dynamics of digital consolidation in Indonesia’s banking sector.