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Performance of Time-Based Feature Expansion in Developing ANN Classification Prediction Models on Time Series Data Sri Suryani Prasetiyowati; Arnasli Yahya; Aniq Atiqi Rohmawati
International Journal on Information and Communication Technology (IJoICT) Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023): Vol.9 No. 2 Dec 2023
Publisher : School of Computing, Telkom University

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Abstract

The prediction problem in most research is the main goal, to estimate future events related to the field under study. Research on classification that involves the prediction process in it, with spatial-time data and influenced by many features, such as the problem of disease spread, climate change, regional planning, environment, economic growth, requires methods that can predict while solving the problem of features and time. To obtain a time-based classification prediction model using many features, this research uses machine learning methods, one of which is Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The scenario carried out is to develop a t+r classification prediction model by expanding features based on the time t-r of the previous period. The performance of feature expansion in the development of ANN classification prediction models is determined based on the optimal accuracy value of the combination of t-r classification prediction models for the previous time period. By implementing the model on the data, it is found that the performance of time-based feature expansion in ANN classification ranges from 3.5% to 11%. While the optimal accuracy value is obtained from the feature expansion scenario of 3 to 5 time periods earlier.
Performance of CART Time-Based Feature Expansion in Dengue Classification Index Rate Suhendar, Annisya Hayati; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi; Prasetyowati, Sri Suryani
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): Articles Research Volume 8 Issue 1, January 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v9i1.13023

Abstract

This study proposes utilizing the machine learning technique CART to classify the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). To expand the features used, the CART classification model was developed based on data collected over the previous 2 to 4 years. The data sources included the Bandung City Health Office for the cases of DHF, the Bandung Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency for the climate data, the Bandung City Central Statistics Agency for population and educational history data. The top-performing CART classification model over the past 2, 3, and 4 years achieved accuracies of 93%, 93%, and 90%, respectively. The models that exhibited the highest accuracy values and optimal number of feature extensions were chosen as the best ones. CART is among several machine learning techniques that can effectively measure the most impactful features during the classification process. The meteorological parameters were found to be irrelevant in the classification process. This study reveals that the population size, male population proportion, and educational attainment levels are the most impactful features in the classification of DHF spread in Bandung City. The research provides valuable insights into the classification of DHF spread in Bandung City through feature expansion.
Model Autoregressive dengan Pendekatan Conditional Maximum Likelihood Untuk Prediksi Harga Saham Rahmadayanti, Cipta; Rabbani, Hasbi; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi
KUBIK Vol 3, No 1 (2018): KUBIK : Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/kubik.v3i1.2731

Abstract

Jual beli saham merupakan salah satu bentuk investasi yang menjanjikan para investor, investasi berkaitan dengan return atau keuntungan yang didapatkan oleh suatu investor atas suatu investasi yang dilakukan terhadap saham tertentu. Untuk mendapatkan nilai return pada beberapa periode kedepan dapat dilakukan prediksi, pada dasarnya prediksi dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan beberapa metode, namun dengan menggunakan model time series diharapkan menghasilkan prediksi yang baik karna karakteristik dari data saham merupakan data time series yang bergerak kontinu terhadap waktu. Pada penelitian ini digunakan model time series Autoregressive (AR) dengan pendekatan Conditional Maximum Likelihood untuk memprediksi nilai return serta dapat melihat pergerakan harga saham. Nilai parameter yang penting pada model Autoregressive orde 1 adalah . Hasil penaksiran parameter dengan Conditional Maximum Likelihood digunakan untuk memperoleh nilai hasil prediksi. Berdasarkan hasil analisis,  model Autoregressive dengan pendekatan Conditional Maximum Likelihood adalah model yang baik untuk memprediksi return dan harga saham NASDAQ dengan RMSE sebesar 0,0002578. Berdasarkan hasil prediksi model AR(1), maka para investor dapat membuat strategi untuk berinvestasi pada indek saham NASDAQ agar dapat menghasilkan keuntungan.
Forecasting Number of New Cases Daily COVID-19 in Central Java Province Using Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Irandi, Dinda Fitri; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi; Gunawan, Putu Harry
Indonesian Journal on Computing (Indo-JC) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2021): September, 2021
Publisher : School of Computing, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34818/INDOJC.2021.6.2.565

Abstract

There is hard to mention how long the COVID-19 pandemic will discontinue. There are some factors, including the public’s efforts to slow spread and researchers’ work to observe more about this outbreak. From the beginning of the health crisis, particularly following the announcement of the first positive case In Indonesia due to the COVID-19 on March 2, 2020. Afterwards, the number of daily cases increase simultaneously in other regions in Indonesia until today. Due to the fact that the significant mobility of the people, Central Java has contributed the 3rd rank of potential number of COVID-19 positive cases in Indonesia. This study aims to forecast the number of COVID-19 daily new cases in Central Java to assist the government in preparing the necessary resources and controlling the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Central Java Province. We proposed Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters with the Additive model with seasonal addition considering trend and seasonal factors. The dataset during March 14 to April 17, 2021, revealed fluctuation of trend and seasonal patterns. Our simulation studies indicate that Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters provides sharp and well performance for forecasting daily new cases of COVID-19 in Central Java province with MAPE less than 10%.
An Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Based-Approach for Estimating Extreme Values of Covid-19 Cases Abi Rafdhi Hernandy; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi; Gunawan, Putu Harry
Indonesian Journal on Computing (Indo-JC) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2021): September, 2021
Publisher : School of Computing, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34818/INDOJC.2021.6.2.576

Abstract

Covid-19 is an ongoing outbreak across the world infecting millions, having significant fatality rate, and triggering economic disruption on a large scale. The demand of healthcare facility has been significantly affected by the increased Covid-19 cases. Many countries have been forced to do lockdown and physical distancing to avoid a crucial peak of novel Covid-19 pandemic that potentially overwhelms healthcare services. Central Java is the province with the third highest population density in Indonesia and predicted to be affected significantly over a particular period of this outbreak. Our paper aims to provide a modelling to estimate extreme values of daily Covid-19 cases in Central Java, between March and April 2021. We particularly capture seasonality during this period using Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters. We employ that Value at Risk and mean excess function based-approaches for extreme value estimation. Our simulation studies indicate that Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters and Value at Risk provide sharp and well prediction for extreme value with zero violation. Since a number of positive cases has resulted unprecedented volatility, estimating the extreme value of daily Covid-19 cases become a crucial matter to support maintain essential health services.
Performance of Time-Based Feature Expansion in Developing ANN Classification Prediction Models on Time Series Data Sri Suryani Prasetiyowati; Yahya, Arnasli; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi
International Journal on Information and Communication Technology (IJoICT) Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023): Vol.9 No. 2 Dec 2023
Publisher : School of Computing, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The prediction problem in most research is the main goal, to estimate future events related to the field under study. Research on classification that involves the prediction process in it, with spatial-time data and influenced by many features, such as the problem of disease spread, climate change, regional planning, environment, economic growth, requires methods that can predict while solving the problem of features and time. To obtain a time-based classification prediction model using many features, this research uses machine learning methods, one of which is Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The scenario carried out is to develop a t+r classification prediction model by expanding features based on the time t-r of the previous period. The performance of feature expansion in the development of ANN classification prediction models is determined based on the optimal accuracy value of the combination of t-r classification prediction models for the previous time period. By implementing the model on the data, it is found that the performance of time-based feature expansion in ANN classification ranges from 3.5% to 11%. While the optimal accuracy value is obtained from the feature expansion scenario of 3 to 5 time periods earlier.
Evaluasi Safety Climate Di Proyek Konstruksi Perumahan Dan Apartemen: Study Kasus Di Bandung Mufidah, Ilma; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi
Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri Vol 5 No 01 (2018): Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem & Industri - Juni 2018 (In Press)
Publisher : School of Industrial and System Engineering, Telkom University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jrsi.v5i01.290

Abstract

Safety culture merupakan aspek keselamatan kerja yang sangat penting untuk dipertimbangkan. Beberapa kecelakaan kerja fatal akibat rendahnya level safety culture di perusahaan terjadi di berbagai belahan dunia. Sayangnya, tidak bayak perusahaan di Indonesia yang peduli terhadap kajian cultural akan aspek keselamatan, sehingga kebanyakan kajian akan aspek keselamatan di Indonesia lebih bersifat teknikal. Sementara itu, angka kecelakaan kerja di Indonesia tergolong tinggi, terutama di perusahaan konstruksi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui level safety climate di proyek konstruksi perumahan di Bandung Timur dengan menggunakan kuesioner, observasi, dan wawancara untuk kemudian ditemukan permasalahan yang terjadi dan diberikan rekomendasi perbaikan. Kuisioner yang akan digunakan (Nordic Occupational Safety Climate Questionnaire-NOSACQ-50) merupakan kuisioner yang dikembangkan oleh para ahli safety climate di negara-negara Skandinavia yang terbukti valid dan reliable dalam mengukur level safety climate di perusahaan-perusahaan di berbagai negara. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga akan menggunakan TR observation untuk mengukur aspek keselamatan di lingkungan kerja dengan metode observasi. Penelitian ini juga akan menggunakan metode wawancara untuk mengetahui persepsi pekerja secara lebih mendalam. Hasil yang diperoleh menujukkan level safety climate yang berbeda-beda disetiap metode yang dijalankan. Secara umum, level safety climate di proyek konstruksi di kecamatan Bojongsoang Kabupaten Bandung Timur masih memerlukan improvement.
Clustering Harga Rumah: Perbandingan Model K-Means dan Gaussian Mixture Model Rahmattullah, Rizky; Indwiarti, Indwiarti; Rohmawati, Aniq Atiqi
eProceedings of Engineering Vol. 10 No. 3 (2023): Juni 2023
Publisher : eProceedings of Engineering

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Abstract

Abstrak-Rumah merupakan kebutuhan primer manusia sebagai tempat bernaung, berlindung, dan beristirahat. Sebagai kebutuhan primer, seluruh manusia berhak untuk mencari tempat tinggalnya masing-masing dengan keluarganya. Seiring berjalannya waktu, kebutuhan akan tempat tinggal semakin meningkat dan mempengaruhi harga jual rumah. Maka dilakukan clustering mengenai harga rumah dengan menggunakan metode K-Means dan Gaussian Mixture Model. Pada penelitian ini menggunakan data harga rumah di wilayah Kabupaten Bogor yang dihimpun dari website olx.co.id. Silhouette Score digunakan sebagai pembanding dari dua metode Clustering yang digunakan. Hasil dari penelitian ini, K-Means memiliki Silhouette Score sebesar 0.63516 lebih besar dari Gaussian Mixture Model yang memiliki Silhouette Score sebesar 0.62723 menjadikan kualitas cluster pada K-Means lebih baik daripada Gaussian Mixture Model pada penelitian ini.Kata kunci-rumah, clustering, gaussian mixture model, K-Means
Co-Authors A. Maulana Mukhsin Abdurrazaq Naufal Abi Rafdhi Hernandy Abi Rafdhi Hernandy Adhitya Aldira Hardy Adiwijaya Agri Pratomo Alfian Yudha Iswara Ananda Affan Fattahila Annisa Aditsania Arifin Dwi Kandar Saputro Arnasli Yahya Ayu Wulandari Bagas Yafitra Pandji Bambang Eko Supriyadi Benedikto Krisnandy Wijaya Budi Ihsan Daulay Cipta Rahmadayanti Danar Satrio Aji Dara Ayu Lestari Deni Saepudin Dian Tiara Didit Adytia Dinda Fitri Irandi Dini Apriliani Lestari Ditta Febriany Sutrisna Elvina Oktavia Ergon Rizky Perdana Purba Erick Anugrah Prihananta Farah Diba Febry Triyadi Fendi Irfan Amorokhman Fhira Nhita Fikri Nur Hadiansyah Fiqi Ruli Setiawan Fitriaini Amalia Gharyni Nurkhair Mulyono Hadyatma Dahna Marta Hasbi Rabbani I Komang Gede Rusmawan Ihsan Hasanudin Ilma Mufidah Imannda Kusuma Putra Indwiarti Irandi, Dinda Fitri Irfan Fauzan Prasetyo Irwan Ramadhana Jeshurun Eliezer Cussoy Jondri Jondri Justinus Dedy Handyka Simanjuntak Kaenova Mahendra Auditama Kautsar Abdillah Lani Rohaeni Laode Muhammad Ali Al-Qomar Lola Yolanda Ruth Herinis Lumbanraja Mailia Putri Utamil Muhamad Lutfi Chandra Muhammad Akmal Afghani Muhammad Fadhil Maulana Muhammad Hafidh Raditya Muhammad Iqbal Cholil Muhammad Irfan Fathurrahman Nanda Putri Mintari Nathan Sukmawan Ni Luh Ketut Dwi Murniati Nisrina Nur Faizah Novelya Nababan Nur Nining Aulia Putu Harry Gunawan Rabbani, Hasbi Rahmadayanti, Cipta Rahmattullah, Rizky Raisa Betha Meiliza Rangga Arya Pamungkas Redha Arifan Juanda Reima Agustina Kusumawardani Reiza Krisnaviardi Reza Pratama Rian Febrian Umbara Rimba Whidiana Ciptasari Rizki Ayudiah Kartika Paramita Rizky Pujianto Rizky Retno Utami Rizma Nurviarelda Sabilla Fitriyantini Shuni’atul Ma’wa Siti Saadah Sri Suryani Prasetiyowati Suhendar, Annisya Hayati Susy Sundari Syahrizal Rizkiana Rusamsi Syaifrijal Zirkon Radion Tasya Salsabila Tedo Hariscandra Triandini Nurislamiaty Yahya, Arnasli ZulvanFirdaus ZulvanFirdausImanullah