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All Journal Marwah: Jurnal Perempuan, Agama dan Jender SITEKIN: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi Komunikasi dan Industri EKOLOGIA : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Dasar dan Lingkungan Hidup Journal of Applied Engineering and Technological Science (JAETS) Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Al-Ittizaan : Jurnal Bimbingan Konseling Islam Psikobuletin: Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi Kutubkhanah Jurnal Penelitian Sosial Keagamaan Jurnal Administrasi Pendidikan dan Konseling Pendidikan Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vokasi UNESA Bulletin of Engineering, Technology and Applied Science
M Marizal
Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau
Religion Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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ANALISIS REGRESI POISSON INVERSE GAUSSIAN UNTUK MENENTUKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI JUMLAH KASUS DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) Marizal, Muhammad; Alvionita, Veny
Ekologia: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Dasar dan Lingkungan Hidup Vol 23, No 1 (2023): Ekologia : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Dasar dan Lingkungan Hidup
Publisher : Universitas Pakuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33751/ekologia.v23i1.6553

Abstract

One of the census data is the number of dengue cases where to model the data can be done using poisson regression. Poisson regression has an assumptions that must be met, namely the average value dan variance must be the same or colled (equidispersion). But, in this study, the data experienced a violation in ehich the variance value was greater than the average value or colled (overdispersion). To overcome thie problem by using the mixed poisson method, namely poisson inverse gaussian regression for count data that is overdispersed and has a likelihood function that is cloce form, that is the parameters are know, so many researchers use this model. The number of DBD cases in Riau Province is counting data that has overdispersion. So therefore, to model the number of cases of DBD using poisson inverse gaussian regression. Based on the model used, it shows the factors that influence the number of dengue cases in Riau Province in 2019, namely the number of health facilities.
Pemodelan angka kematian bayi di Indonesia menggunakan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) dan Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) Marizal, Muhammad; Monalisa, Kartika Anjani
Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika Vol 22 No 2 (2022): Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/mims.v22i2.32460

Abstract

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is fundamental indicator that reflects the health status in the surrounding community. The Infant Mortality Rate is still categorized as high in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to determine the appropriate model in estimating the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and to find out the factors that influence the IMR in Indonesia. The data in this study was secondary which obtained from the Indonesia Health Profile. The estimation was carried out using Geograpically Weigthed Regression (GWR) and Mixed Geographically Weigthed Regression (MGWR) models. The GWR model is development of regression that consider spatial factors. While the MGWR model is a combination of regression and GWR with several variables influence locally. but the rest goes globally. The result showed that the MGWR model was the best model compared to the GWR model with the lowest AIC value selection standart. The MGWR model with weighted Adactive Kernel Gaussian found that locally influencing factors were infants who were exclusively breastfed (ASI) and infants who received early initiation of breastfeeding (IMD), while globally influencing factors were infants who were given vitamin A, low birth weight (LBW) delivery services at health facilities and pregnant women receiving bloodsupplementing tables (TTD). Keywords: Adaptive of kernel Gaussian, AIC, the infant mortality rate, GWR, MGWR MSC2020: 62M10
Analisis Jumlah Kriminal Di Indonesia dengan Geographically Weighted Regression Marizal, Muhammad; Mulyani, Septia
Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi Komunikasi dan Industri 2024: SNTIKI 16
Publisher : UIN Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Kriminalitas merupakan perbuatan yang merugikan pelaku dan korban secara ekonomis dan psikologis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan jumlah kriminal dan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya. Penelitian ini melibatkan variabel independen yang terdiri dari Jumlah Pengangguran Terbuka (JPT), Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (JPM), Jumlah Penduduk Putus Sekolah (JPPS), Kepadatan Penduduk (KP) dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM). Metode yang digunakan adalah Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Karena jumlah kriminal dapat menyebar kewilayah terdekat. Model GWR merupakan jenis regresi spasial yang memiliki parameter berbeda setiap lokasi pengamatan. Penelitian ini menggunakan fungsi pembobot fixed gaussian. Hasil penelitian ini adalah wilayah berdekatan cenderung memiliki kesamaan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi jumlah kriminal di Indonesia. Variabel Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (JPM), Jumlah Penduduk Putus Sekolah (JPPS), Kepadatan Penduduk (KP) dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) menjadi faktor yang mempengaruhi jumlah kriminal di Indonesia.
Analisis Risiko Perceraian berdasarkan Usia Suami di Kota Pekanbaru Marizal, Muhammad; Putri, Mutia Rahmatul; Putri, Satriani; Lestari, Tri Uci
Psikobuletin:Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi Vol 5, No 1 (2024): Psikobuletin: Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/pib.v5i1.28553

Abstract

Pernikahan merupakan suatu ikatan yang sakral dalam hukum dan agama untuk mengikat sepasang suami dan istri dalam membina rumah tangga dengan dasar tujuan untuk membentuk keluarga yang harmonis. Usia pernikahan antara 0-5 tahun merupakan masa-masa rawan yang disebut sebagai era kritis. Pengalaman bersama yang dialami belum banyak sehingga memicu timbulnya risiko perceraian yang tinggi. Berdasarkan data dari Pengadilan Agama Kota Pekanbaru terdapat 127 pasangan yang bercerai pada tahun 2021. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui lama pernikahan berdasarkan faktor usia suami lebih muda dari istri dengan menggunakan metode Kaplan Meier dan Uji Log-Rank. Berdasarkan hasil analisis dari 127 sampel penelitian, terdapat sebanyak 45 pasangan dinyatakan bercerai pada usia pernikahan 0-5 tahun dan 82 pasangan bercerai pada usia pernikahan lebih dari 5 tahun dan dari hasil uji Log-Rank diperoleh bahwa terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara peluang usia suami di atas 38 tahun dan di bawah 38 tahun terhadap lama pernikahan. Usia suami di bawah 38 tahun lebih berpeluang besar menyebabkan perceraian dibandingkan usia suami di atas 38 tahun.
Application of Binary Logistic Regression Method in Diagnosing Ischemic Stroke Disease at Petala Bumi Hospital, Riau Province Muhammad Marizal; Tri Uci Lestari
Vokasi UNESA Bulletin of Engineering, Technology and Applied Science Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya or The State University of Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/vubeta.v1i1.34099

Abstract

Stroke occurs suddenly when blood flow is obstructed while supplying blood to the brain. Ischemic stroke is a type of stroke that often occurs and is a major cause of disability and even death. The large number of ischemic stroke incidents is the result of ignorance of the risk factors that lead to the emergence of ischemic stroke events. The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors that significantly influence ischemic stroke and to determine the chances of thrombotic and embolic ischemic stroke by involving several independent variables. Factors that are thought to influence the occurrence of ischemic stroke in this study were age, gender, hypertension status, diabetes mellitus status, hypercholesterolemia status, obesity, triglycerides, body mass indeks, diet, and smoking habits. The method used in this research is binary logistic regression. The results of the analysis show that age and hypertension status have a significant effect on ischemic stroke with a classification accuracy of 74% the rest is influenced by other factors
Modeling the Risk of Divorce in the Age Range of Marriage 1 – 10 Years using Weibull and Exponential Distributions Ari Pani Desvina; Muhammad Marizal; Asra Rahmi
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): JSMS Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/jsms.v12i1.38936

Abstract

Divorce is an act that is permitted in Islam but is hated by Allah. The rise in divorce over the last decade has become a serious concern for those involved in maintaining the resilience of household relationships. So, it is necessary to analyze at what age marriage becomes critical for maintaining it. This research uses divorce data from 2015 to 2020, with a variable measuring the maximum length of marriage at 10 years. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Pekanbaru Religious Court for 298 divorce cases. The analysis was carried out by determining the most appropriate distribution for modeling divorce data in Pekanbaru City: the Weibull or the Exponential distribution. This determination was carried out by a goodness-of-fit test using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results show that the Weibull distribution is the most appropriate for modeling divorce data in Pekanbaru, with the highest divorce risk at a marriage age of around 42 months (3.5 years), with a probability of divorce of 14%.
Modeling of Educated Unemployment Rates in Indonesia Using Geographically Weighted Regression Abdilla Mufarida; Muhammad Marizal
Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): February 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/icopss.v4i1.35855

Abstract

Modeling the Educated Unemployment Rate (EUR) in Indonesia is an effort to reduce the number of unemployed, especially the unemployed who are able to complete their education at least high school. The SATKERNAS survey stated that more than half of the unemployed in Indonesia in 2022 were educated unemployed. Modeling was generally carried out to see the relationship between independent variables and dependent variables using linear regression analysis and specifically using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis to understand significant differences in independent variables between provinces in Indonesia. In accordance with the model goodness criteria, GWR produces a model that has a smaller AIC value than the general model generated by linear regression. From linear regression analysis, EUR in Indonesia in 2022 is influenced by TPT, JPUP, and Investment. In addition to these variables, the PG variable also affects EUR in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and Riau Provinces according to GWR analysis with a fixed gaussian weighting function
Forecasting of Average Air Temperature in the City of Pekanbaru Using the Holt-Winters Method Rado Yendra; Muhammad Marizal; Hilvania Ramadhani
Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/icopss.v4i2.37868

Abstract

Global climate change causes significant fluctuations in air temperature, including in the city of Pekanbaru, therefore, a predictive system is needed that can help the government and the community in dealing with climate impacts, one of which is through air temperature forecasting. This study aims to forecast the average air temperature in Pekanbaru City using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method, which is known to be effective in capturing seasonal patterns and trends. The data used is monthly average air temperature data from 2017 to 2024 obtained from BMKG. The analysis was carried out using an addictive approach and model evaluation was carried out based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The results show that the best model is obtained on a parameter with a MAPE value of 2.684. This model is then used to forecast the air temperature in 2025, which is predicted to decrease gradually. The results of this forecast are expected to be a reference in planning and decision-making related to climate change mitigation in the Pekanbaru area
Beyond Normative Knowledge: A Baseline Needs Assessment for Preventive Marriage Education in Pekanbaru, Indonesia Muhammad Marizal
Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/icopss.v5i2.40455

Abstract

Divorce remains an important family and social concern, and prior locally derived research in Pekanbaru, Indonesia, identified elevated divorce vulnerability during the early years of marriage. Building on this evidence, a preventive marriage education program was developed in partnership with local Religious Affairs Office (KUA) offices. Rather than evaluating the effectiveness of this program, the present study examined the baseline profile of self-reported marital readiness among participants entering the program and identified priority educational needs. This exploratory cross-sectional baseline needs assessment analyzed data from 66 participants (predominantly not-yet-married, with a smaller proportion already married) using a program-specific, 25-item dichotomous (Yes/No) self-report questionnaire covering five conceptual domains: rights and responsibilities, husband-wife responsibilities, conflict management, social/relational interaction, and religious knowledge. The overall baseline score was high (mean = 23.379 of 25, SD = 1.812), with positive-response proportions ranging from 89.4% for Conflict Management to 98.8% for Religious Knowledge. At the item level, comparatively lower endorsement was observed for openness with a partner regarding past friendships or relationships (75.8%), willingness to acknowledge one's own fault first to help de-escalate conflict (77.3%), and remaining calm and rational when unfairly accused by a partner (80.3%). These findings indicate strong self-reported endorsement of normative and religious principles of marriage, alongside comparatively lower endorsement of several relationally demanding situations. Rather than reflecting a proven skills deficit, this pattern suggests that preventive marriage education may benefit from complementing normative and religious foundations with targeted engagement in relational openness, conflict de-escalation, and emotionally demanding interpersonal situations. The findings support a research-to-practice approach in which locally grounded evidence about when preventive attention may be warranted is paired with evidence about what such preventive education should address.
Co-Authors Abdilla Mufarida Afifa Nurmita Afrizal Mansur Afrizal Mansur Alvionita, Veny Amirah Diniaty Ari Pani Desvina Aryo Saputra Asra Rahmi Diniya Diniya Diniya Diniya Haris Sudibjo Haswir Haswir Hayatul Atiqah Hilvania Ramadhani Ibrahim Sulaiman Hanaish Intan Wahyu Sawitri Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Jumni Nelli Kasmuri Selamat Khairi Muslimah Lestari, Tri Uci Monalisa, Kartika Anjani Muhammad Hanif Mulyani, Septia Mutiarani, Fikha Noraini Binti Nazam Nur Wahid Petir Papilo Putri, Mutia Rahmatul Putri, Satriani Rado Yendra Rado Yendra Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Saifullah Saifullah Sarina Fadila H Suci Habibah Tri Uci Lestari Windy Ayu Pratiwi Yendra, Rado Zikri Darussaamin