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PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN ASEAN-6 Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 9 No 1 (2015)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan perdagangan negara-negara ASEAN-6 dan menganalisis pengaruh aliran FDI terhadap neraca perdagangan. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis deskriptif dan regresi data panel. Studi ini menunjukkan perkembangan neraca perdagangan ASEAN-6 dari tahun 2004-2013 secara total surplus. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi data panel, terdapat pengaruh yang positif antara pertumbuhan FDI, GDP dan sektor manufaktur dengan pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan di negara ASEAN-6. Sementara itu terdapat pengaruh negatif antara konsumsi domestik, dan nilai tukar riil terhadap pertumbuhan neraca perdagangan. Hasil analisis regresi data panel mengindikasikan pentingnya variabel pertumbuhan FDI. Hal ini mengimplikasikan perlunya negara-negara ASEAN-6 mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan aliran masuk FDI, seperti perbaikan iklim investasi dan pemberian insentif fiskal. This study sets out to explain the development of trade between ASEAN-6 countries and analyze the influence of FDI flow towards the balance of trade. This study utilizes descriptive analysis approach and panel data regression. This study shows the development of the balance of trade for ASEAN-6 trade from 2004-2013 were all surplus. Based on the panel data regression analysis, there is a positive influences of FDI, GDP, and manufacture sector on the balance of trade of ASEAN-6 countries. On the other hand, there is a negative influences of domestic consumption and real exchange on balance of trade. The analysis result from panel data regression indicates the importance of FDI growth variable. This implies a necessity for ASEAN-6 countries to issue policies that could enhance the inflow of FDI, such as improving investment climate and providing fiscal incentive.

PERKEMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 8 No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode Kuartal I tahun 2006 sampai dengan Kuartal II tahun 2013 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Neraca perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif dalam kurun waktu 2006-2011, dan pertumbuhan negatif selama periode 2012-2013. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, konsumsi domestik dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, sedangkan variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan PDB Negara lain berpengaruh positif. Nilai error correction model yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya koreksi dari pergerakan variabel pada keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hal ini mengindikasikan pentingnya pemerintah untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, mengendalikan konsumsi masyarat terhadap barang impor, dan menarik Foreign Direct Investment. This paper examines the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and its determinant factors from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The development of trade balance from the year 2006-2011 has shown a positive trend. However between the year 2012 and 2013, the trade balance has been negative.The analysis shows that both in the short run and the long run,the domestic consumption and Real Exchage Rate have negative and significant influence on Indonesia’s trade balance. Whilst Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign GDP have positive effect. The coefficient of Error Correction Model is negative and significant implying that there is correction movement from those variabels in the long run. This study suggests that the Government should make the right policy to overcome the deficit of trade balance by maintaining including exchange rate stability,and household consumption of imported goods as well as by attracting Foreign Direct Investment.

PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 7 No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap kinerja ekspor Indonesia menggunakan data tahun 2005 kuartal I sampai tahun 2012 kuartal III dengan menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM). Dalam kurun waktu 2005-2012 ekspor Indonesia secara umum menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif walaupun terjadi penurunan pada periode 2008-2009 dan tahun 2012 terutama ke negara-negara tujuan Eropa dan Amerika. Ini menunjukkan bahwa ekspor Indonesia perlu ditujukan ke negara negara yang menjadi target atau sasaran baru. Studi ini menemukan bahwa nilai tukar dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek memiliki pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Ini menunjukkan pentingnya kebijakan nilai tukar untuk memicu peningkatan ekspor Indonesia. This paper examines the influence of Indonesia’s exchange rate on the performance of Indonesia’s exports using the data from the first quarter of 2005 until the third quarter of 2012 using an Error Correction Model (ECM). During 2005-2012 Indonesia’s exports increased, except in 2008-2009 and 2012 when they declined especially to Europe and America. This suggests that Indonesia’s exports should now be directed at newly targeted countries. This study finds that the appreciation of the exchange rate, in both the long run and the short run, has a significant negative impact on exports. It shows theimportance of exchange rate policy in improving Indonesia’s export performance.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA Ari Mulianta Ginting
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 11 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

Pengaruh dana perimbangan terhadap kemandirian keuangan daerah Ari Mulianta Ginting; Muhammad Zilal Hamzah; Eleonora Sofilda
Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik Vol 4 No 2 (2019): Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara, dan Kebijakan
Publisher : Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan, Kementerian Keuangan

Indonesia memasuki era baru dari sentralistik menjadi desentralistik. Dampak dari desentralisasi tersebut adalah adanya dana pemberian dana perimbangan untuk melaksanakan tugas dan tanggung jawab. Namun pemberian dana perimbangan tersebut, memberikan dampak lain yaitu ketergangungan pemerintah daerah kepada dana perimbangan. Penelitian menggunakan analisis metode kuantitatif dengan pendekatan regresi panel data model dengan menggunakan data dari kluster kabupaten/kota dari kluster I sampai dengan IV dari tahun 2013-2018. Penelitian juga menggunakan analisis kuadran untuk melakukan mapping terhadap kabupaten/kota terhadap dana perimbangan dan kemandirian keuangan daerah. Hasil analisa regresi panel ditemukan bahwa pengaruh dana perimbangan memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan terhadap kemandirian keuangan daerah hanya di kluster II, sedangkan kluster lainnya tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kemandirian keuangan daerah. Hasil analisa regresi panel ini sejalan dengan analisa kuadran bahwa dari data kabupaten/kota yang ada baik di kluster I-IV, hampir 91,3% kabupaten/kota yang ada berada di kuadran IV. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa secara rata-rata 91,3% kabupaten/kota memiliki dana perimbangan yang realtif rendah dengan kemandirian keuangan yang juga relatif rendah untuk kluster I, III dan IV. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut maka pemerintah daerah kabupaten/kota harus mengalokasikan anggaran kepada potensi yang dapat dijadikan sebagai sumber penerimaan bagi daerah khususnya kepada belanja yang bersifat investasi dan produktif.

Factors Influencing the Consumer’s Decision Using Financial Technology: Case Study in Jakarta Renny Risqiani; Ari Mulianta Ginting
Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik Vol 13, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian, Badan Keahlian DPR RI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22212/jekp.v13i1.1980

Economic evolution started with the first wave of the industrial revolution. Economic evolution brought about changes in the economy. One of these effects is the advancement of technology, which has increased the use of Financial Technology (Fintech) in Indonesia. Fintech usage has risen in Indonesia, particularly in Jakarta. The study’s goal is to look at the elements that influence people’s decision to keep using fintech services. The study used non-probability sampling methods to obtain data from fintech users in Jakarta aged 17 to 35 years old over the research period of March to May 2020. The data was analyzed by using Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the AMOS software program. This study found that competitive pressures in technology services and the ease of digital technology offer consumers a wide range of options. Customers easily switch to other technology services at a reasonably affordable price. The study also found that variable consumer perceptions of benefits and trust variables in fintech services influence consumer attitudes. However, these two variables have no direct effect on the desire to continue using fintech services. Variable risk perception does not affect the attitude and desire of consumers to continue using fintech services. Variable attitudes affect the desire to continue using fintech services. The study results showed that increasing the penetration of fintech and continue consumers to continue to use fintech. It is necessary to improve risk perception to fintech used by consumers.Keywords: fintech, benefit and risk perception, Structural Equation Model AbstrakPerkembangan evolusi perekonomian dimulai dari gelombang pertama hingga masuk revolusi industri membawa perubahan terhadap perekonomian. Salah satu dampak tersebut adalah semakin berkembangnya teknologi. Perkembangan teknologi membawa dampak terhadap peningkatan Financial Technology (Fintech) di Indonesia. Penggunaan fintech di Indonesia mengalami peningkatan khususnya penggunaan fintech di Jakarta. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi niat untuk terus memanfaatkan layanan fintech. Studi ini mengumpulkan data dari pengguna fintech di Jakarta yang berusia 17 hingga 35 tahun menggunakan metode non-probability sampling dengan periode penelitian dari bulan Maret – Mei tahun 2020. Analisis data menggunakan Structural Equation Model (SEM) dengan program software AMOS. Studi ini menemukan bahwa tekanan persaingan dalam layanan teknologi dan kemudahan teknologi digital menawarkan konsumen berbagai pilihan. Konsumen dengan mudah beralih ke layanan teknologi lain dengan harga yang cukup terjangkau. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa variabel persepsi konsumen terhadap manfaat dan variabel kepercayaan terhadap layanan fintech berpengaruh terhadap sikap konsumen. Namun, kedua variabel tersebut tidak berpengaruh langsung terhadap keinginan untuk terus menggunakan layanan fintech. Variabel persepsi risiko tidak memengaruhi sikap dan keinginan konsumen untuk tetap menggunakan layanan fintech. Variabel sikap memengaruhi keinginan untuk terus menggunakan layanan fintech. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa penetrasi fintech meningkat dan konsumen terus menggunakan fintech. Persepsi risiko terhadap fintech yang digunakan konsumen perlu ditingkatkan.Kata kunci: fintech, manfaat dan persepsi risiko, Structural Equation Model

DETERMINASI KONSUMSI LISTRIK DI INDONESIA Stefanus Johan; Ari Mulianta Ginting
Media Ekonomi Vol. 30 No. 1 (2022): April
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Indonesia’s actual electricity consumption is lower than was projected, at the same time there are new power plants under construction and some are ready to be commissioned and enter to the grid this year, oversupply of electricity is occurred and will create another burden to PT PLN (Persero). This study aims to examine the determinant factors of electricity consumption in Indonesia with emphasis on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, inflation, electricity tariff, number of customer and electrification ratio. The study uses panel data from the Electricity Supply Business Plan of PLN, the time series annual data is available for the period of 2011 to 2020 and the cross-section data represents regional of PLN such as Sumatera, Jawa-Madura-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Maluku-Papua-Nusa Tenggara. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method is used to estimate the significant of each independent and to select the most appropriate model, Chow test and Hausman test were conducted. The study chooses the most suitable econometric model which is Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The estimation from OLS suggests that GDRP, Population, Population, Number of customer and Electrification ratio are significant and positively impacted to electricity consumption while electricity tariff and inflation are also significant but negatively impacted to electricity consumption.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Financial Independence in the Framework of a Policy Strategy For Increasing Regional Original Income Vissia Dewi Haptari; Ari Mulianta Ginting; Ferdinand David Aritonang
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 2 No. 4 (2022): Journal Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

The regional autonomy policy, which is accompanied by the provision of balancing funds, has a goal, one of which is to have an impact on the financial independence of regency/municipal governments in Indonesia. The balancing funds provided should have an effect or have an impact on regional financial independence. This research is directed to see to what extent the relationship of fiscal decentralization can provide an increase in regional financial independence. Based on the results of the panel data regression analysis of the district/city data clusters, the results showed various results. In clusters I and IV, it shows that there is a positive and significant effect of the provision of balancing funds on regional financial independence. Meanwhile, based on the results of panel regression analysis in regencies/cities in cluster II, it shows that the provision of balancing funds has no significant effect on regional financial independence. The districts/cities in cluster III show that the balancing fund variable has a negative and significant influence on the financial independence of local governments. This implies that the provision of balancing funds for districts/cities in cluster III actually makes local governments dependent on transfer funds from the central government.

DETERMINASI KONSUMSI LISTRIK DI INDONESIA Stefanus Johan; Ari Mulianta Ginting
Media Ekonomi Vol. 30 No. 1 (2022): April
Publisher : Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25105/me.v30i1.10662

Indonesia’s actual electricity consumption is lower than was projected, at the same time there are new power plants under construction and some are ready to be commissioned and enter to the grid this year, oversupply of electricity is occurred and will create another burden to PT PLN (Persero). This study aims to examine the determinant factors of electricity consumption in Indonesia with emphasis on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population, inflation, electricity tariff, number of customer and electrification ratio. The study uses panel data from the Electricity Supply Business Plan of PLN, the time series annual data is available for the period of 2011 to 2020 and the cross-section data represents regional of PLN such as Sumatera, Jawa-Madura-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Maluku-Papua-Nusa Tenggara. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method is used to estimate the significant of each independent and to select the most appropriate model, Chow test and Hausman test were conducted. The study chooses the most suitable econometric model which is Fixed Effect Model (FEM). The estimation from OLS suggests that GDRP, Population, Population, Number of customer and Electrification ratio are significant and positively impacted to electricity consumption while electricity tariff and inflation are also significant but negatively impacted to electricity consumption.

THE ROLE OF THE SPECIAL AUTONOMY FUND TO IMPROVE THE PUBLIC SERVICE IN THE PAPUA PROVINCE Ginting, Ari Mulianta
Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik Vol 14, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian, Badan Keahlian DPR RI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22212/jekp.v14i1.3925

This paper examines the special autonomy fund's role in public service in health and education sector in districts/cities in Papua Province. Using panel data from 29 districts/cities in Papua Province covering 2013-2020, our findings are based on panel data. The special autonomy fund has a positive and significant impact on public service in health and education sector in districts/cities in Papua Provinces. Moreover, we identify that fiscal decentralization also positively and significantly affects public service in districts/ cities in Papua Province. A special autonomy fund is a necessary condition for increasing public service. There are requirements to implement the special funding for Papua, such as participation of the people in determining and supervising the use of the special fund, accountability of local government to use the special fund, synergy, and coordination among stakeholders in Papua. Finally, the central government must ensure that special funds must be allocated to public services such as health and education sector. Indonesian Parliament should make an evaluation and monitoring of the special autonomy fund for Papua Province. The evaluation and monitoring of the special autonomy fund are needed in order to fulfill the aims of the fund. Keywords: fiscal policy, public economics, regional autonomy, special autonomy fund, public serviceAbstrakTulisan ini mengkaji peran dana otonomi khusus (otsus) terhadap pelayanan publik baik di bidang kesehatan maupun pendidikan di kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Papua. Menggunakan data panel dari 29 kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Papua tahun 2013-2020, temuan kami didasarkan pada data panel. Dana otsus berdampak positif dan signifikan terhadap pelayanan publik baik di bidang kesehatan maupun pendidikan di kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Papua. Selain itu, kami mengidentifikasi desentralisasi fiskal juga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pelayanan publik di kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Papua. Dana otsus merupakan prasyarat untuk peningkatan pelayanan publik. Ada persyaratan untuk melaksanakan dana khusus untuk Papua, seperti partisipasi masyarakat dalam menentukan dan mengawasi penggunaan dana khusus, akuntabilitas pemerintah daerah untuk menggunakan dana khusus, sinergi, dan koordinasi para pemangku kepentingan di Papua. Terakhir, pemerintah pusat harus memastikan dana khusus harus dialokasikan untuk pelayanan publik seperti sektor kesehatan dan pendidikan. DPR RI perlu mendorong pengawasan dan evaluasi terhadap dana otonomi khusus di Provinsi Papua agar sesuai dengan tujuan pemberian dana tersebut.Kata kunci: kebijakan fiskal, ekonomi regional, ekonomi publik, ekonomi regional, Dana Otonomi Khusus Papua

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