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All Journal Statistika Asian Journal of Agriculture Parameter: Journal of Statistics Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Buletin Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Islam Journal of Agriculture (JoA) Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Arwini Arisandi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics

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Akurasi Nilai Peramalan Harga Cabai Rawit Merah di Kota Makassar dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Arisandi, Arwini
Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Volume 7, Nomor 1, 2025
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Universitas Sulawesi Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31605/jomta.v7i1.4780

Abstract

Red cayenne pepper is a food commodity that is widely cultivated in Indonesia. This chili is in demand from domestic to foreign markets, so the price of chili can fluctuate under certain conditions. This is a concern that forecasting chili prices is important as a step for policymakers in making policies. Data obtained from the Makassar City Food Security Service amounted to 671 data (days) modeled using the single exponential smoothing forecasting method, which aims to assess the ability of forecasting results for the price of red cayenne pepper in Makassar City. The results show that descriptively the lowest chili price occurred in September 2023 at IDR 13,000 to IDR 15,000, while the highest chili prices will occur at the end of 2023 at IDR 70,000 to IDR 80,000. The resulting MAPE value is 6.50% < 10%, so it is concluded that the single exponential smoothing model provides excellent forecasting capabilities in forecasting the price of red cayenne pepper in Makassar City.
Evaluasi Kinerja Model Adaptive Response Rate Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksikan Harga Beras Gaffar, Ismail; Arisandi, Arwini; Makkulawu, Andi Ridwan
Buletin Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Islam (BUSITI) Vol 6, No 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Muslim Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33096/busiti.v6i3.2901

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi model peramalan terbaik untuk memprediksi harga beras di Kota Makassar dengan membandingkan metode Adaptive Response Rate Exponential Smoothing (ARRES) dengan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Data harga beras harian untuk beras medium dan premium dari Januari hingga Juni 2025, yang terdiri dari 166 pengamatan, dianalisis menggunakan kedua metode tersebut dengan perangkat lunak RStudio. Analisis data menunjukkan bahwa harga beras premium cenderung lebih tinggi dan lebih stabil dibandingkan harga beras medium. Metode ARRES, yang dilengkapi dengan parameter smoothing adaptif yang merespons kesalahan terbaru, menunjukkan respons yang lebih baik terhadap fluktuasi harga beras dibandingkan metode SES dengan parameter konstan. Evaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) menunjukkan bahwa ARRES lebih unggul dibandingkan SES, dengan nilai MAPE masing-masing 0,379% dan 0,420% untuk beras medium, serta 0,283% dan 0,317% untuk beras premium. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa ARRES memberikan akurasi peramalan yang lebih baik, diklasifikasikan sebagai akurasi sangat tinggi (MAPE10%), menjadikannya alat yang menjanjikan untuk peramalan harga beras guna mendukung pengambilan keputusan oleh pemerintah dan pemangku kepentingan di Makassar.
Analisis Trend dan Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Meramalkan Harga Komoditas Beras di Kota Makassar Arisandi, Arwini; Gaffar, Ismail; Mayapada, Retno; Nurhaliza, Sitti
Buletin Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Islam (BUSITI) Vol 6, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Muslim Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33096/busiti.v6i2.2807

Abstract

Effect of maltodextrin level on nutritional and physicochemical properties of spray-dried mandarin juice AHMAD, ILHAM; MURSALIM, MURSALIM; SALENGKE, SALENGKE; WARIS, ABDUL; JASSIN, ERNAWATI; ARISANDI, ARWINI
Asian Journal of Agriculture Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Smujo International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/asianjagric/g100118

Abstract

Abstract. Ahmad I, Mursalim, Salengke, Waris A, Jassin E, Arisandi A. 2026. Effect of maltodextrin level on nutritional and physicochemical properties of spray-dried mandarin juice. Asian J Agric 10 (1): g100118. https://doi.org/10.13057/asianjagric/g100118. Spray drying is widely used to transform heat-sensitive fruit juices into shelf-stable powders. However, the addition of carrier agents can diminish the retention of labile nutrients. The influence of maltodextrin-to-mandarin juice ratios ranging from 15:85 to 45:55 (w/w) on spray-dried powder properties was evaluated at a fixed inlet temperature of 130°C. Seven formulations of Selayar mandarin (Citrus reticulata) juice with food-grade maltodextrin (DE 10-12) were homogenized and spray-dried using a Büchi B-290 mini spray dryer (outlet 85-115 °C) with a two-fluid nozzle (6 bar), feed rate of ~5 mL/min, and 100% aspirator. Each formulation was processed in triplicate. Vitamin C content was determined by DCPIP titration, titratable acidity (TAT) was measured as percent citric acid, moisture content was determined by oven-drying at 105 °C, ash content by muffle furnace at 550°C, and soluble solids (°Brix) by digital refractometry. Results are reported as mean ± SD (n=3), and the effect of carrier level was analyzed by one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey’s HSD test (p < 0.05). Vitamin C content of the powder was significantly reduced from 259.98 mg/100 g to 135.14 mg/100 g as the maltodextrin content increased, and titratable acidity was lowered from 1.28% to 0.35%. Moisture content remained low (3.54-4.47%), indicating that the powders were sufficiently dried for safe storage. Ash content increased from 0.13% to 0.48% at higher maltodextrin ratios, whereas °Brix values remained high (75.0-85.1), indicating strong retention of soluble solids. Overall, a clear trade-off was observed between nutrient preservation and powder stability: greater vitamin C retention was achieved at lower carrier-to-juice ratios, whereas higher ratios were associated with improved drying performance and powder handling. These findings provide practical guidance for optimizing carrier use in small-scale citrus powder production and underscore the need for further research on alternative carrier materials and their effects on sensory quality.
Co-Authors Abdul Waris Andi Ridwan Makkulawu Ernawati Jassin, Ernawati Gaffar, Ismail Hardianti Hafid Herdiani, Erna Tri Ilham Ahmad Ismail Gaffar Makkulawu, A Ridwan Mayapada, Retno Muhammad Fitri, Muhammad Mursalim Mursalim Mus, Rahmi Nur Aisyah Reski Wahyu Yanti Salengke, Salengke Sitti Nurhaliza Sitti Sahriman Syandriana Syarifuddin