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Sri Suharsih

Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Yogyakarta

Author-ID : 389291

Religion Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences

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FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN PENCAPAIAN SUSTAINABILITAS FISKAL INDONESIA Suharsih, Sri
Kinerja: Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi Vol 17, No 1 (2013): Kinerja Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi
Publisher : Kinerja: Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (86.579 KB)

This research aims to measure the fi scal risks and contingent liabilities caused by increasing world oilprices in terms of fi scal sustainability. Analysis was performed by using the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)and the mean variance analysis to calculate the fi scal risk. Furthermore, in relation to fi scal sustainability itwas examined whether the fi scal risks that occur was through structural changes or not during the years 1977-2008 with the fl uctuating oil price conditions. It was analyzed by using stationary test application by inserting astructural break elements, developed by Zivot Andrews (ZA test).The results show that increases in oil prices caused the fi scal risk in Indonesia, this can be seen from thecalculation of networth with BSA and the mean variance analysis showed negative results, especially whenIndonesia became a net oil importing country and increase oil price was very high approaching U.S. $ 100 /barrel. ZA test results showed that there had been structural changes in risk variables, such conditions occurwhen the world oil price has increased to nearly 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. This shows that the increase in oilprices could disrupt the achievement of fi scal sustainability.Keywords: Fiscal Risk, Zivot Andrews (ZA) test, Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)

FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN PENCAPAIAN SUSTAINABILITAS FISKAL INDONESIA Suharsih, Sri
KINERJA Vol 17, No 1 (2013): Kinerja
Publisher : Faculty of Economics Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24002/kinerja.v17i1.369

This research aims to measure the fi scal risks and contingent liabilities caused by increasing world oilprices in terms of fi scal sustainability. Analysis was performed by using the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)and the mean variance analysis to calculate the fi scal risk. Furthermore, in relation to fi scal sustainability itwas examined whether the fi scal risks that occur was through structural changes or not during the years 1977-2008 with the fl uctuating oil price conditions. It was analyzed by using stationary test application by inserting astructural break elements, developed by Zivot Andrews (ZA test).The results show that increases in oil prices caused the fi scal risk in Indonesia, this can be seen from thecalculation of networth with BSA and the mean variance analysis showed negative results, especially whenIndonesia became a net oil importing country and increase oil price was very high approaching U.S. $ 100 /barrel. ZA test results showed that there had been structural changes in risk variables, such conditions occurwhen the world oil price has increased to nearly 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. This shows that the increase in oilprices could disrupt the achievement of fi scal sustainability.Keywords: Fiscal Risk, Zivot Andrews (ZA) test, Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)

FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN PENCAPAIAN SUSTAINABILITAS FISKAL INDONESIA Sri Suharsih
KINERJA Vol. 17 No. 1 (2013): Kinerja
Publisher : Faculty of Business and Economics Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24002/kinerja.v17i1.369

This research aims to measure the fi scal risks and contingent liabilities caused by increasing world oilprices in terms of fi scal sustainability. Analysis was performed by using the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)and the mean variance analysis to calculate the fi scal risk. Furthermore, in relation to fi scal sustainability itwas examined whether the fi scal risks that occur was through structural changes or not during the years 1977-2008 with the fl uctuating oil price conditions. It was analyzed by using stationary test application by inserting astructural break elements, developed by Zivot Andrews (ZA test).The results show that increases in oil prices caused the fi scal risk in Indonesia, this can be seen from thecalculation of networth with BSA and the mean variance analysis showed negative results, especially whenIndonesia became a net oil importing country and increase oil price was very high approaching U.S. $ 100 /barrel. ZA test results showed that there had been structural changes in risk variables, such conditions occurwhen the world oil price has increased to nearly 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. This shows that the increase in oilprices could disrupt the achievement of fi scal sustainability.Keywords: Fiscal Risk, Zivot Andrews (ZA) test, Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)

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