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All Journal Jurnal Simantec Jurnal Ilmiah Kursor TEKMAPRO Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Scan : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Teknika: Engineering and Sains Journal Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) JIEET (Journal of Information Engineering and Educational Technology) IJEBD (International Journal Of Entrepreneurship And Business Development) Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) Jurnal Penelitian SEINASI-KESI Journal of Information Systems and Informatics Journal of Robotics and Control (JRC) JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) e-NARODROID Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings Journal of Applied Data Sciences International Journal of Data Science, Engineering, and Analytics (IJDASEA) ITIJ Jurnal ilmiah teknologi informasi Asia Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat SENSASI Lontar Komputer: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi
I Gede Susrama Mas Diyasa
Department Of Informatics, Faculty Of Computer Science, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur, Indonesia
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Journal : Journal of Applied Data Sciences

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Optimizing The XGBoost Model with Grid Search Hyperparameter Tuning for Maximum Temperature Forecasting Sugiarto, Sugiarto; Mas Diyasa, I Gede Susrama; Alhamda, Denisa Septalian; Aryananda, Rangga Laksana; Fatmah Sari, Allan Ruhui; Sukri, Hanifudin; Dewi, Deshinta Arrowa
Journal of Applied Data Sciences Vol 6, No 4: December 2025
Publisher : Bright Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/jads.v6i4.885

Abstract

This study presents a novel comparative approach to maximum temperature forecasting in Surabaya, Indonesia, by integrating Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) with Grid Search Hyperparameter Tuning and benchmarking it against Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Prophet models. The main idea is to evaluate the capability of XGBoost in capturing nonlinear patterns in environmental time series data, which traditional models often fail to address. Using 15,388 historical daily maximum temperature records from the BMKG Juanda weather station spanning 1981–2022, the objective is to identify the most accurate predictive model for short- and medium-term forecasts. The modeling process involved four stages: data acquisition, preprocessing, training, and evaluation, with performance assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The findings show that, after hyperparameter tuning, XGBoost achieved the best performance with MAE = 0.32 and RMSE = 0.65, outperforming ARIMA (MAE = 0.85, RMSE = 1.20) and Neural Prophet (MAE = 0.70, RMSE = 0.98). Prediction results for 2025 indicate peak maximum temperatures in January, October, and November, aligning with recent climate patterns. The contribution of this research lies in demonstrating the superiority of a tuned XGBoost model for complex environmental datasets, offering a practical tool for urban climate planning, agricultural scheduling, and heatwave risk mitigation. The novelty of this work is the systematic integration of Grid Search-based optimization with XGBoost for meteorological forecasting in a tropical urban context, producing higher accuracy than both classical statistical and modern hybrid time series methods. These results highlight the model’s adaptability and potential for broader climate-related applications, with future research recommended to incorporate additional meteorological variables such as humidity and wind speed for even greater predictive capability.
Co-Authors Achmad Junaidi Achmad Junaidic Adiwidyatma, Afdhal Reshanda Ahmad Naufal Mumtaz Akhmad Fauzi Akmal, Mohammad Faizal Alfiatun Masrifah Alhamda, Denisa Septalian Amanullah , Nurkholis Anak Agung Diah Parami Dewi Ardianto, Taruna Ariyono Setiawan Aryananda, Rangga Laksana Aurelia, Cenditya Ayu Awaludin W., Moh. Haydir Awang, Mohd Khalid Azizah, Nabila Wafiqotul Bambang Trigunarsyah Bambang Trigunarsyah Budi Nugroho Cahyani Kuswardhani, Hajjar Ayu Dewi, Deshinta Arrova Dewi, Deshinta Arrowa Dwi Arman Prasetya Dwi Kusuma, Irma Erma Suryani Etniko Siagian, Pangestu Sandya Eva Yulia Puspaningrum Fara Disa Durry Fatmah Sari, Allan Ruhui Firmansyah, Taufik Nur Firya Nadhira Firza Prima Aditiawan Gideon Setya Budiwitjaksono Gideon Setya Budiwitjaksono Gunawan, Ellexia Leonie Hadi, Surjo Hafidz Amarul Ma’rufi Halim, Christina Hamawi, Moch. Hawin Humairah, Sayyidah I Nyoman Dita Pahang Putra I Nyoman Dita Pahang Putra Ilham Ade Widya Sampurno Ilham Ade Widya Sampurno Intan Yuniar Purbasari Jauharis Saputra, Wahyu Syaifullah Jojok Dwiridotjahjono Kraugusteeliana Kraugusteeliana Mandeni, Ni Made Ika Marinni Mandyartha, Eka Prakarsa Moch. Hatta Mohamad Nur Amin Mohammad Idhom Mohammad Rafka Mahendra A Mohammad Rafka Mahendra Ariefwan Mubarokah Mudjahidin Muhammad Rif'an Dzulqornain Mumtaz, Ahmad Naufal Munoto Mustika, Agung Nadhira, Firya Nahusuly, Barep J. A. I. Ni Made Ika Marini Mandenni Ni Made Ika Marini Mandenni NYOMAN DITA PAHANG PUTRA, NYOMAN Prabowo, Aris Prasetyo, Galih Novian Putri, Fitri Aulia Yuliandi Raditya, Askara Rangga Laksana A Rangga Laksana Aryananda Rheza Rizqi Ahmadi Ridho Syahdindo Rizal Harjo Utomo Sabrina Charya Floribunda Santoso, Sri Fuji Senny Meliyan Setiawan, Ariyono Setiawan, Ariyono Shodiq, Ja’far Slamet Winardi Sri Wibawani, Sri Sugeng Purwanto Sugiarto Sugiarto S Sugiarto Sugiarto Sukri, Hanifudin Sulianto Bhirawa Sunarko, Victor Immanuel Suryani, Dedik Taruna Ardianto Terza Damaliana, Aviolla Trimono, Trimono Wafiqotul Azizah, Nabila Wahyu Caesarendra Wahyu Dwi Lestari Wahyu S.J. Saputra Wan Awang, Wan Suryani Wardhani, Naritha Cahya Widianto, Purwito Ridho Widiastuty, Riana Retno Wijaya, Pandu Ali Yisti Vita Via