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All Journal Media Statistika JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Varian Jurnal Sibermas (Sinergi Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan Riset Pendidikan
Muhammad Rezky F. Payu
Department Of Mathematics, FMIPA, Gorontalo State University
Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

 1 
PENDEKATAN MODEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) UNTUK MERAMALKAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI PROVINSI GORONTALO HARIYATI H. USMAN; ISMAIL DJAKARIA; MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i1.5408

Abstract

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a simultaneous equation modeling used to construct forecasting systems from interrelated time-series data. This study intends to predict factors that significantly influence inflation in the province of Gorontalo. Moreover, the data used in this study involved inflation data and factors that influence inflation every month in the province in the period of January 2009 - December 2018. The results of inflation forecasting in Gorontalo in 2019 show that at the beginning of 2019, the inflation was considered to be very low at around -0.48% to -0.40%. However, the inflation surged in March with -0.25% (the highest inflation rate). The percentage decreased to -0.30% and -0.33% in April and May. After the decline in April and May, in the middle of the year (June) inflation returned to -0.31% and did not experience a significant change until the end of the year, which was still in the range of -0.32%. The accuracy of the prediction results seen in the MAPE value from out sample data of variables Y1 to Y8 is on the average below 10%, indicating that VAR is a significant forecasting model.
PERBANDINGAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE DAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DARI HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN NILAI IMPOR DI INDONESIA YULINAR I. AJUNU; NOVIANITA ACHMAD; MUHAMMAD REZKY FRIESTA PAYU
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 1 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i1.5393

Abstract

As a form of purchased goods from other state’s imports have impacts both positive and negative to the states’s condition; therefore, prediction is required. Employing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) methods, this study intends to identify which of the methods is the most accurate to predict Indonesia’s import value.  The ARIMA method stage involved: data ploting, data stasioneriation, temporary model identification, parameter estimation, test residual assumption, and prediction. Moreover, the Holt’s DES method involved: data plotting, initial value determination, optimal parameter identification, Level Lt and Trend Tt value quantification, andprediction. The result shows that ARIMA method is the most accurate method to predict Indonesia’s import value.
Co-Authors Abd Wahidin Nuayi Akor, Umar D. Anatasya Lahay Asriadi Djihad Wungguli Dukalang, Hendra Evi Hulukati Febriyana Taki Haris Danial HARIYATI H. USMAN Hasan S. Panigoro I Wayan Eka Sultra Indri Wirahmi Bay Ingka Rizkyani Akolo Ismail Djakaria Kuka, Fatra Kurniasari Abram La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Loleh, Linda Purnama Sari Melisa Huntala Ningsih, Setia NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Novianita Achmad Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Perry Zakaria Sri Lestari Mahmud Sri Widyarti Ali Windra Tahir Yolanda Rahim YULINAR I. AJUNU Yulinda L. Ismail