Articles
<![CDATA[A Dynamical Model of âInvisible Wallâ in Mosquito Control ]]>
<![CDATA[Mia Siti Khumaeroh]]>;
<![CDATA[Edy Soewono]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 1 No. 2 (2018) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2018.1.2.2
<![CDATA[A concept of an âinvisible wallâ is used here as a control mechanism to separate the human population from mosquitoes in the hope that mosquitoes gradually change their preference to other blood resources. Although mosquitoes carry inherent traits in host preference, in a situation in which regular blood resource is less available, and there are abundant other blood resources, mosquitoes may adapt to the existing new blood resource. Here we construct a model of mosquitoes preference alteration involving anthropophilic, opportunistic, and zoophilic, based on the application of repellent clothing usage and the effects of fumigation. The coexistence equilibrium is shown to be stable when the rate of mosquito ovulation, which is successfully hatching into larvae, is greater than the total of mosquito natural death rate and mosquito death rate due to fumigation. Numerical simulation is performed after the reduction of unobservable parameters is done with Human Blood Index (HBI) data. Global sensitivity analysis is then performed to determine the parameters that provide the dominant alteration effect on the mosquito population. The simulation results show that a proper selection of the fumigation rate and repellent clothing rate should be carefully done in order to reduce the mosquito population as well as to increase the zoophilic ratio.]]>
<![CDATA[Comparison of Dengue Transmission in Lowland and Highland Area: Case Study in Semarang and Malang, Indonesia ]]>
<![CDATA[Ilham Saiful Fauzi]]>;
<![CDATA[Muhammad Fakhruddin]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Karunia Putra Wijaya]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 2 No. 1 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.1.3
<![CDATA[Dengue is a potentially lethal mosquito-borne disease, regarded as the most dangerous disease in the world. It is also a major health issue in tropical and subtropical countries. Environmental characteristics and sociocultural are factors which play a role in the spread of dengue. Different landscape structure such as lowland and highland areas are possible to give different infection rate on dengue transmission. Semarang and Malang are densely populated areas in Java, which are selected to be our study areas. A mathematical model (SIR-UV) is adapted to describe dengue transmission. Spiral dynamic optimization is applied to convert monthly data to weekly in Malang and estimate the infection rate that minimized the deviation between dengue data and simulation. This method produces a good fitting to the data. We compare the pattern of dengue cases from the simulation in both cities. Furthermore, we identify seasonal variations of the cases via Fourier series of the infection rate. We also investigate the correlation between humidity, infection rate, and dengue cases in Semarang and Malang. It reveals that humidity influences infection rate in 1-3 weeks later and the infection rate produces dengue cases in the next four weeks.]]>
<![CDATA[Dynamical analysis of a predator-prey model arising from palm tree plantation ]]>
<![CDATA[Yenie Syukriyah]]>;
<![CDATA[Muhammad Fakhruddin]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Rudy Kusdiantara]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 2 No. 2 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.2.6
<![CDATA[Palm oil industry has become an issue that has caught the attention of the world community in recent years. From an economic point of view, this industry is very influential in developing and spurring economic growth in rural areas. In this paper, a predator-prey dynamical model representing the interaction between palm leaf, caterpillar and predator is discussed here. The caterpillar life-cycle starts from eggs, larvae, pupas and the adult moths, and only the larvae interact with the predator. With a given threshold level of the leaves for survival and productivity, the critical level of predators is shown. Further, the dynamical analysis is discussed analytically and numerically. Bifurcation diagrams and sensitivity analysis of each compartment were also obtained to see the effect of changing parameters on the dynamics. The results explain that the increase of larvae predators can reduce the number of larvae pests that eat palm oil leaves, but they need to be controlled to maintain the balance of the ecosystem.]]>
<![CDATA[Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 in Indonesia based on Early Endemic Data ]]>
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Kamal Khairudin]]>;
<![CDATA[Mochamad Apri]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.1.1
<![CDATA[The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused so much anxiety and speculation around the world. This phenomenon was mainly driven by the drastic increase in the number of infected people with the COVID-19 virus worldwide. Here we propose a simple model to predict the endemic in Indonesia. The model is based on the Richard's Curve that represents a modified logistic equation. Based on the similar trends of initial data between Indonesia and South Korea, we use parameter values that are obtained through parameter estimation of the model to the data in South Korea. Further, we use a strict assumption that the implemented strategy in Indonesia is as effective as in South Korea. The results show that endemic will end in April 2020 with the total number of cases more than 8000.]]>
<![CDATA[An Entomological Model for Estimating the Post-Mortem Interval ]]>
<![CDATA[Vania Mene Risriani]]>;
<![CDATA[Tjandra Anggraeni]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 3 No. 2 (2020) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.2.6
<![CDATA[Identification of post-mortem interval started from the time when the dead body was found. The main question is to identify the time of death. In reality, the task is complicated since many local factors are involved in the process of decomposition. In most cases, the decomposition process is done by certain local insects that consume the biomass completely. This study uses a mathematical model for the post-mortem interval involving diptera and rabbit corpses as the biomass, based on experimental data from references. We formulate a type of logistic model with decaying carrying capacity only with diptera. The post-mortem interval is shown as the end period of consumption when larvae have entirely consumed the biomass. It is shown from the simulation that the decomposition lasts for 235 hours. The diptera are shown to disappear completely, leaving the remaining corpse after 120 hours.]]>
<![CDATA[On The Study of Covid-19 Transmission Using Deterministic and Stochastic Models with Vaccination Treatment and Quarantine ]]>
<![CDATA[Mona Zevika]]>;
<![CDATA[Anita Triska]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Glenn Lahodny Jr.]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.1
<![CDATA[In this study, we propose deterministic and stochastic models of the spread of Covid-19 with vaccination and quarantine programs. The model considers the facts that vaccines do not provide full protection, the efficacy of current vaccines only lasts for a limited time, and recovered people could be reinfected. The routine analysis was carried out for the deterministic model, including calculating an expression for the basic reproduction number. The stochastic formulation makes use of a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) model. The basic reproduction number from the deterministic model relates to the stochastic model's analysis in producing a formula for the probability of extinction of Covid-19. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out to analyze the sensitivity of the dynamical states and the basic reproduction number to the model parameters. An expression for the probability of disease extinction in terms of the model parameters and initial conditions is given. The results of this study suggest that current conditions in Indonesia will lead to a longterm Covid-19 epidemic. One of the efforts to overcome the Covid-19 epidemic is by increasing the provision of vaccines to the susceptible population. However, the number of vaccinated people in the population is not always an ideal control for dealing with the spread of the disease. The vaccine efficacy is also important to reduce the infection. As long as the efficacy is not sufficient to give a good protection to the human population and it lasts only for a short period of time, quarantine is still needed.]]>
<![CDATA[Analysis of A Coendemic Model of COVID-19 and Dengue Disease ]]>
<![CDATA[Hilda Fahlena]]>;
<![CDATA[Widya Oktaviana]]>;
<![CDATA[Farida]]>;
<![CDATA[Sudirman]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Edy Soewono]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 2 (2021) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.2.5
<![CDATA[The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread aggressively worldwide, infecting more than 170 million people with confirmed cases, including more than 3 million deaths. This pandemic is increasingly exacerbating the burden on tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to the pre-existing dengue fever, which has become endemic for a longer period in the same region. Co-circulation dengue and COVID-19 cases have been found and confirmed in several countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for the coendemic of COVID-19 and dengue is proposed. The basic reproduction ratio is obtained, which is related to the four equilibria, disease-free, endemic-COVID-19, endemic-dengue, and coendemic equilibria. Stability analysis is done for the first three equilibria. Furthermore, a condition for coexistence equilibrium is obtained, which gives a condition for bifurcation analysis. Numerical simulations were carried out to obtain a stable limit-cycle resulting from two Hopf bifurcation points with dengue transmission rate and COVID-19 transmission rate as the bifurcation parameter, representing a stable periodic coexistence of dengue and COVID-19 transmission. We identify the period of limit cycle decreases after reaching the maximum value.]]>
<![CDATA[PENETUAN RADIUS BULIR DARI FOTOMETRI ASTRONOMI: PERBANDINGAN TIGA METODE BERBASIS MODEL MIE ]]>
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Hakim L. Malasan]]>;
<![CDATA[Tri W. Hadi]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Sains Dirgantara Vol 2, No.1 Desember (2004) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (766.96 KB)
<![CDATA[This paper discusses modeling steps of the total extinction coefficients,deduced from the astronomical photometric observations, to estimate aerosol perticulate size in the atmospheric layer. One important step in modeling is the application of Mie theory through Wempe's extinction law for aerosol and introduced by Angstrom (1929), i.e. The factor Qext is derived by elaborating Mie theory, through extinction efficiency factor which has been normalized, and an assumption that particle size is represented by a log-normal distribution. Final result of aerosol radius is deduced by fitting a decomposed observed extinction coefficient with that computed using the three Mie theory developed to estimate the best aerosol particulate's size.]]>
<![CDATA[Pyramid Population Prediction using Age Structure Model ]]>
<![CDATA[Heni Widayani]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuning Nuraini]]>;
<![CDATA[Anita Triska]]>
<![CDATA[ CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 6, No 2 (2020): CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
Full PDF (1623.69 KB)
|
DOI: 10.18860/ca.v6i2.8859
<![CDATA[Population composition in a country by sex and age-structure often illustrated through the Population Pyramid. In this study, an age-structure model will be constructed to predict the population pyramid shape in the coming year. It is assumed that changes in population are affected by natality and mortality number in each age group, ignoring migration rates. The proposed age structure model formulated as a first-order partial differential equation with the non-negative initial condition. The boundary condition is given by the number of births which is proportional to the number of women at childbearing age. Then, this age structure model implemented utilizing United Nations Data to predict population pyramids of Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, the USA, and Russia. The population pyramid prediction of the five countries shows different characteristics, according to whether it is a developing or developed country. The results of this study indicate that the age structure model can be used to predict the composition of the population in a country in the next few years. Indonesia is predicted to be the highest populated country in 2066, compared to the other four countries. This result can be used as a reference for the government to plan policies and strategies according to age groups to control population explosion in the future.]]>
<![CDATA[Data-Driven Generating Operator in SEIRV Model for COVID-19 Transmission ]]>
<![CDATA[Nadia]]>;
<![CDATA[Zikri, Afdol]]>;
<![CDATA[Rizqina, Sila]]>;
<![CDATA[Sukandar, Kamal Khairudin]]>;
<![CDATA[Fakhruddin, Muhammad]]>;
<![CDATA[Tay, Chai Jian]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuraini, Nuning]]>
<![CDATA[ Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society ]]>
Show Abstract
|
Download Original
|
Original Source
|
Check in Google Scholar
|
DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2023.6.1.6
<![CDATA[The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine has been extensively implemented through large-scale programs in numerous countries as a preventive measure against the resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In line with this vaccination effort, the Indonesian government has successfully inoculated over 74% of its population. Nevertheless, a significant decline in the duration of vaccine-induced immunity has raised concerns regarding the necessity of additional inoculations, such as booster shots. Prior to proceeding with further inoculation measures, it is imperative for the government to assess the existing level of herd immunity, specifically determining whether it has reached the desired threshold of 70%. To shed light on this matter, our objective is to ascertain the herd immunity level following the initial and subsequent vaccination programs, while also proposing an optimal timeframe for conducting additional inoculations. This study utilizes COVID-19 data from Jakarta and employs the SEIRV model, which integrates time-dependent parameters and incorporates an additional compartment to represent the vaccinated population. By formulating a dynamic generator based on the cumulative cases function, we are able to comprehensively evaluate the analytical and numerical aspects of all state dynamics. Simulation results reveal that the number of individuals protected by the vaccine increases following the vaccination program; however, this number subsequently declines due to the waning effect of the vaccine. Our estimates indicate that the vaccination program in Jakarta has achieved herd immunity levels exceeding 70% from October 2021 to February 2022, thus underscoring the necessity of rolling out further inoculations no later than February 2022.]]>
