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STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND BILATERAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: AN EMPIRICAL CASE OF INDONESIAâUNITED STATES Arintoko, Arintoko
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 12, No 1 (2011): JEP Juni 2011
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

This study estimates the exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Indonesia in the two-stage approach. The study focuses on first step pass-through, i.e. ERPT into import prices and second step pass-through, i.e. into consumer prices, using cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM) model. This research uses a Zivot-Andrews technique to test for structural breaks and Gregory-Hansen models to tests. The results show that the long run ERPT to import prices with structural breaks is relatively low compared to the results without them. The absolut error correction term values resulted from cointegration are decreased and the error-correction models need period lagged longer than one-period if the estimation included the estimated structural breaks. The main finding is that allowing for possible breaks around the crises in Indonesia, and a shift of the exchange rate management from managed to free floating in 1997 helps to restore a long run cointegration relationship estimation.

STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND BILATERAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: AN EMPIRICAL CASE OF INDONESIAâUNITED STATES Arintoko, Arintoko
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 12, No 1 (2011): JEP Juni 2011
Publisher : Universitas Muhammdaiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/jep.v12i1.201

This study estimates the exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Indonesia in the two-stage approach. The study focuses on first step pass-through, i.e. ERPT into import prices and second step pass-through, i.e. into consumer prices, using cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM) model. This research uses a Zivot-Andrews technique to test for structural breaks and Gregory-Hansen models to tests. The results show that the long run ERPT to import prices with structural breaks is relatively low compared to the results without them. The absolut error correction term values resulted from cointegration are decreased and the error-correction models need period lagged longer than one-period if the estimation included the estimated structural breaks. The main finding is that allowing for possible breaks around the crises in Indonesia, and a shift of the exchange rate management from managed to free floating in 1997 helps to restore a long run cointegration relationship estimation.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU TINGKAT TABUNGAN DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL LIFE CYCLE HYPOTHESIS Arintoko, Arintoko
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 1, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

This study estimates a number of variables hypothesized affect saving rate in Indonesia. These variables such as growth of real income per capita, dependency ratio, interest rate, inflation and lag of saving rate are likely to exert influence on saving rate as suggested by theory and/or prior empirical work. This research employs regression model on time-series data. Research model is based on life cycle hypothesis. It is used to show effect of income growth and population structure on saving rate. Three of five variables used in the model significanly affect saving rate i.e.: real GDP per capita, inflation and lag of saving rate. These variables have positif effect on saving rate. Increasing GDP per capita has impact on increasing national saving rate. Increasing inflation indicates increasing uncertainty motivating households to raise their saving. In addition, there is an inertia of saving rate habit implying that national saving rate in Indonesia would be to exhibit cycle. Thus, saving rate would be increase in the future if there is upwardÂ trend in prior timeThis study estimates a number of variables hypothesized affect saving rate in Indonesia. These variables such as growth of real income per capita, dependency ratio, interest rate, inflation and lag of saving rate are likely to exert influence on saving rate as suggested by theory and/or prior empirical work. This research employs regression model on time-series data. Research model is based on life cycle hypothesis. It is used to show effect of income growth and population structure on saving rate. Three of five variables used in the model significanly affect saving rate i.e.:real GDP per capita, inflation and lag of saving rate. These variables have positif effect on saving rate. Increasing GDP per capita has impact on increasing national saving rate. Increasing inflation indicates increasing uncertainty motivating households to raise their saving. In addition, there is an inertia of saving rate habit implying that national saving rate in Indonesia would be to exhibit cycle. Thus, saving rate would be increase in the future if there is upwardÂ trend in prior time

Memediasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dengan Kemiskinan: Studi Kasus Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Nur Wani; Suharno Suharno; Arintoko Arintoko
Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 20, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH SUMATERA UTARA

The results of empirical studies on the effect of economic growth with poverty show conflicting results. Therefore, this study tries to introduce employment opportunities as a mediating variable. The research objective is to examine whether employment opportunities are able to mediate between economic growth and poverty. The data used in this study are secondary data of DIY Province in the period 2000-2018. The method used in this research is path analysis. The results showed that the three hypotheses above were supported. Thus, economic growth will be able to reduce the number of poor people if the economic growth is able to grow employment opportunities. The finding implies the importance of inclusive growth that gives poor people access to work and business opportunities.

Pengaruh Keluhan Kesehatan terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Di Provinsi Jawa Timur Nur Isnaeni Novitasari; Suharno Suharno; Arintoko Arintoko
Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi Vol 21, No 1 (2021): Februari
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33087/jiubj.v21i1.1310

The Investments in human capital are the same with improving the quality of human development. The success of national development can be seen from the health aspect in the form of measurement indicator of the Human Development Index. This research analyzes the effect of health complaints, unemployment, poverty and government expenditure on the Human Development Index in East Java Province 2015-2018. This research method uses multiple linear regression with a panel data approach. The results showed that health complaints, unemployment and poverty have a negative and significant effect on the Human Development Index in East Java Province. Meanwhile, government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the Human Development Index in East Java Province. These findings imply 1) the necessity to improve health infrastructure and government expenditure especially in the health sector, 2) the necessity to increase employment opportunities for reducing poverty and unemployment.

Analisis Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kemiskinan (Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Banjarnegara, Cilacap, Purbalingga, Kebumen, dan Banyumas) Hendry Wijaya; Istiqomah Istiqomah; Arintoko Arintoko
Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi Vol 20, No 2 (2020): Juli
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, Gross Regional Domestic Product, and Human Development Index on poverty in Banjarnegara, Cilacap Purbalingga, Kebumen, dan Banyumas Regencies. The data used in this study are secondary data in the period 2000-2019. With the multiple linear regression method panel data. The regression output with the fixed effect model shows that the inflation variable does not have a significant effect on poverty, and the Human Development Index and Gross Regional Domestic Product variables have a negative and significant effect on poverty in Banjarnegara, Cilacap Purbalingga, Kebumen, dan Banyumas Regencies. This finding implies local governments to create jobs and provide training and improve education infrastructure and health infrastructure.

Ketimpangan Distribusi Pendapatan di Kabupaten Banyumas Jawa Tengah Pramono Hariadi; Arintoko Arintoko; Icuk Rangga Bawono
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2008: Indonesian Version
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v13i2.222

The central theme of this paper is the measurement of income inequality by investigating its present time in Banyumas. It is important to know the impact of local development process on income inequality. Not only the impacts of local development, but also other factors determining the trend of income inquality (i.e.fuel price raises, price and income adjustment policies) give impact on present income inequality. Nowaydays, the local development policies and the other factors are predicted that they give impact on the raise of recent income inquality in Banyumas. Based on Gini coefficient measurement method, we obtain startling result. The result presented in this paper is based on a sample of 180 households including urban area, sub urban area and rural area. The Gini coefficient result is 0,603. This result shows the sharp raise of income inequality from past time to recent in Banyumas. The imbalance of development between modern sectors (i.e services, contruction, finance, trade and manufacture) and traditional sectors (i.e agriculture and informal sector) causes the raise of income inequality. Based on this trend of the raise of income inequality, local government must practice pro poor development policies without ignoring sustainable economic growth and especially focusing on agriculture, rural economy, informal sector, small and medium industries. Keywords: income inequality, Gini coefficient, pro-poor policy, sustainable growth

An Inequality Income Distribution in Kabupaten Banyumas Central Java Pramono Hariadi; Arintoko Arintoko; Icuk Rangga Bawono
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2008: English Version
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v13i2.488

The central theme of this paper is the measurement of income inequality by investigating its present time in Banyumas. It is important to know the impact of local development process on income inequality. Not only the impacts of local development, but also other factors determining the trend of income inquality (i.e.fuel price raises, price and income adjustment policies) give impact on present income inequality. Nowaydays, the local development policies and the other factors are predicted that they give impact on the raise of recent income inquality in Banyumas. Based on Gini coefficient measurement method, we obtain startling result. The result presented in this paper is based on a sample of 180 households including urban area, sub urban area and rural area. The Gini coefficient result is 0,603. This result shows the sharp raise of income inequality from past time to recent in Banyumas. The imbalance of development between modern sectors (i.e services, contruction, finance, trade and manufacture) and traditional sectors (i.e agriculture and informal sector) causes the raise of income inequality. Based on this trend of the raise of income inequality, local government must practice pro poor development policies without ignoring sustainable economic growth and especially focusing on agriculture, rural economy, informal sector, small and medium industries.Keywords: income inequality, Gini coefficient, pro-poor policy, sustainable growth

EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS Arintoko Arintoko
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 3 Issue 1, 2011
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v3i1.2320

This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM), with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient. Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

ANALISIS FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL YANG MEMENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN ASET BANK SYARIAH DI INDONESIA Alif Chandra Indura; Abdul Aziz Ahmad; Suprapto Suprapto; Arintoko Arintoko
Indonesian Journal of Islamic Business and Economics Vol 1 No 1 (2019): IJIBE
Publisher : Center of Islamic Economics and Halal Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman,

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20884/1.ijibe.2019.1.1.2212

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel internal (NPF, ROA, FDR, CAR dan BOPO) serta variabel ekstrernal (inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan BI rate) terhadap pertumbuhan aset bank syariah di Indonesia. Selain itu penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren pertumbuhan aset bank syariah di Indonesia sejak Tahun 2009 sampai dengan tahun 2020. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel NPF, ROA, FDR, CAR, BOPO, inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan BI rate terhadap pertumbuhan aset bank syariah di Indonesia. Analisis tren dengan metode kuadrat terkecil digunakan untuk me nganalisis tren pertumbuhan perbankan syariah di Indonesia Periode penelitian dimulai sejak bulan Maret 2009 sampai dengan bulan Desember 2017. Hasil analisis regresi linier menunjukkan bahwa variabel ROA, CAR serta pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan aset perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Variabel FDR, BOPO serta inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan aset perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Sedangkan variabel NPF dan BI rate memiliki pengaruh yang negatif namun tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan aset perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Nilai adjusted R2 sebesar 0,565 menunjukkan bahwa variabel independen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini telah menjelaskan variasi variabel pertumbuhan aset perbankan syariah di Indonesia sebesar 56,5 persen, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 43,5 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model. Hasil analisis tren menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan aset perbankan syariah di Indonesia memiliki tren yang negatif dan signifikan.

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